I'd imagine that if we polled the average Brewers fan leaving Miller Park, the resounding opinion on Rickie Weeks would be that he is a bust -- a plain and simple high-draft pick bust who never lived up to the hype, his minor league numbers, or the promise of his college career.

But, part of me has always wondered if Weeks has been more of a victim of incredibly high standards and ridiculous hype coming from the Brewers' organization -- the expectation is always that he breaks out at some point, not that he continue to work as an average MLB second baseman. Early hype had Weeks as the type of huge power threat fit for the #3 role, and his power/speed combination brought whispers of a 20/20, 30/30 threat at a historically weak offensive position. It seems that no matter the development, no matter the reality to his production, Brewers fans and the Brewers organization have helped themselves to as many servings of Rickie Weeks hype as their bellies can handle. 

After all, it was never about producing a functional core of young major leaguers, right? The desire was to produce a core of young major league stars, which of course ignores that fact that the vast majority of baseball players drafted indeed become average players, or worse. 

What leads me to believe that Rickie Weeks is the victim of unrealistic and unfocused hype is simple: the history of the second pick in the MLB Rule IV draft, or the June amateur draft. One might think, intuitively, that there is little difference between the first and second draft pick since the inception of the draft. But upon a closer look, that's not really the case.

There were 30 position players drafted with the first pick before 2008; 28 of those picks made it to the majors, with 22 accumulating 1000 or more career AB, and 20 accumulating 2000 or more career AB. 13 of those players posted a career OPS at or above .800, and 4 posted a career OPS at or above .900. Lofty company, indeed; hell, there are 11 first picks who posted at least 5000 career AB (or more).

By comparison, the second pick saw 22 position players drafted before 2007, with 19 of those picks making it to the majors. 17 of those players accumulated 1000 or more AB during their career, and 12 players accumulated 2000 or more AB. The kicker? Only 5 second picks posted a career OPS at or above .800, and none reached that exceptional .900 OPS plateau. Even further, only 4 second picks ever made it to (or beyond) 5000 career AB.

Here's the breakdown:

Position Players drafted: 30 (1st), 22 (2nd)

To majors: 28 (1st; 93%), 19 (2nd; 86%)

1000 AB: 22 (1st;  73%), 17 (2nd; 77%)

2000 AB: 20 (1st; 67%), 12 (2nd;  55%)

5000 AB: 11 (1st; 37%), 4 (2nd; 18%)

+.800 OPS: 13 (1st; 43%), 5 (2nd; 23%)

+.900 OPS: 4 (1st; 13%), 0 (2nd; 0%)

Right off the bat, we can question the type of hype a second pick should receive. It is rather clear, by direct comparison, that the second pick has not historically matched the first pick, and even though the second pick has produced players with fine careers such as Reggie Jackson and Will Clark, the second pick cannot match Alex Rodriguez, Chipper Jones, Ken Griffey, Jr., or even Josh Hamilton.

A more in-depth search of second picks will show the historical level of production from the second pick. Those 22 position players drafted with the second pick accumulated 77,792 plate appearances, 18,178 hits, and 30,073 total bases; the average 2nd pick career spans 3536 PA, includes 826 H, and 1367 TB, with a line of .265/.340/.438.

That's right. Our beloved second base power/speed superstar-to-be, from draft day forward, was expected to become a superstar against the historical marker of .265/.340/.438, and an average career span of 3536 PA. This, without even considering that Weeks was the first second pick ever drafted at 2B, and only the 8th middle infielder drafted with the second pick.

Here are those eight middle infielders drafted with the second pick:

 

Middle Infielders:		PA	AB	H	BB	HBP	TB
Terry Hughes		97	86	18	7	2	24
Rick Manning		5832	5248	1349	471	9	1792
Garry Harris		0	0	0	0	0	0
Augie Schmidt		0	0	0	0	0	0
Kurt Stillwell		3478	3125	779	274	18	1092
Mark Lewis		3051	2795	736	196	16	1061
B.J. Upton		1554	1339	371	190	8	570
Rickie Weeks		1907	1615	395	215	59	656
Totals		15919	14208	3648	1353	112	5195
AVG:	0.257		AVG PA:	1990
OBP:	0.321		AVG H:	456
SLG:	0.366		AVG TB:	649
OPS:	0.687

 

Amazing, isn't it? 

My whole point isn't that we shouldn't criticize and analyze Weeks' shortcomings; that we shouldn't expect him to play well with his tools. He is a very toolsy player, has a lot of talent, and should be able to continue to produce as an average 2B.

But against which history do we compare him? In the context of the second pick, in the history of the Rule IV draft, Rickie Weeks is one of the best middle infielders drafted with that historical pick. In a historical draft pick that has not produced superstar second baseman, that has not produced lengthy careers in the middle infield, Weeks' career is already a success.

Now, this says nothing of his minor league stats, nor his college career. There are markers in his past that suggest the type of player Weeks has been or could become. This might depend upon his development, his injury history, and whether or not he's miscast by the Brewers in the lead-off role.

There are a whole host of points by which we can analyze Weeks. But the one point that I think is undeniably false is any point that suggests that Rickie Weeks is a bust.

I do not think we can look at the historical evidence, nor Weeks' rather average career to this point (he is a career .245/.352/.406 second baseman). In the next year, Weeks' career will surpass the average length of a second pick middle infield career; he will likely surpass average PA, average H, and he has already surpassed the average TB accumulated by a second pick middle infielder.