What's in the blogosphere today?  Pretty much nothing.  Let's take a look.

• Chuckie Hacks believes Tom Haudricourt was a little drunk at the time of his MVP vote.  I have to admit that I do not agree with Tom's ballot, but his voting makes a certain amount of sense when hearing his explanation.  Still...I cannot imagine Albert Pujols deserving a seventh place vote, much less Carlos Delgado coming in fourth.  Yes, the same Carlos Delgado who some Mets fans hoped for his release at the end of the season.  I understand he had a stellar September, but there is more baseball played than just September baseball. 
  
• Bill James believes that Prince Fielder is the best player in the league that is 25-years old or younger.  Ryan Braun checks in at number five, while the Brewers as a whole rank number sixth for their young talent.  I wonder how those who believe Prince is not worth much on the open market will defend their view now, as Bill James is one of the most respected minds in baseball.
• Brew Crew Ball takes a look at the Fall/Winter League baseball games yesterday.  Lorenzo Cain continues to soar, while Alcides Escobar has bounced back nicely from his slump earlier in the Winter League season.  Alexandre Periard needs a hug.
• A newspaper in Maine wrote an article explaining how the Brewers must either put Mark Rogers on their big league roster or risk losing him in the Rule 5 draft next season.  The Crew will likely take their chances with the Rule 5 draft.  (h/t Brewerfan.net)
  
• Who was the worst pitcher in the Major Leagues last season?  Jeff Suppan?  Not even close.  Tom Gorzelanny, Nate Robertson, and Brandon Backe all got votes from the Dugout Central staff.  I vote Gorzelanny, simply because he was "the best young pitcher in the league" last season.  Too bad Gorzelanny has been an arm injury waiting to happen all season.
• Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the Chicago Cubs are very close to re-signing Ryan Dempster with a four-year deal.  So much for Dempster trying the open market like he promised.  Most likely, that was a ploy that got the Cubs to add a fourth year to the contract.
  

Sorry to get a late start on this today, but here are your links.

• Tom Haudricourt asks if the players' union would pressure CC Sabathia into signing a more lucrative contract with the New York Yankees, over Milwaukee -- which seems to be high on his list.  I fully understand how the union wishes to set precedent with CC's deal to serve as a benchmark for later big-name and big-time pitchers reaching free agency in the coming years.  CC, however, has earned the right to determine his own future, and I believe the players' union will respect that.  This may simply be idealistic and a big naive, but the more I read and the more I think about it, the players' union will likely stay away from pressuring CC.
• Speaking of CC Sabathia, the big left-hander came in 6th place in the MVP voting.  Albert Pujols ran away with the hardware, as he should have.  Milwaukee's Ryan Braun checks in at number three, even though TH voted for Prince Fielder before Braun.  TH then delves into how the voting is an inexact science.  I feel he should mention that beat writers vote for their own team more often than others.  Just saying.
• Adam McCalvy has a mailbag up.  He discounts the rumors that Ben Sheets will be coming back to Milwaukee in the closer's role (duh).  McCalvy also weighs in on the third base conundrum.  It seems that Doug Melvin is rather open to starting Mat Gamel at the hot corner if nothing else becomes available.  With the season-ending elbow injury, however, that seems quite unlikely.  The injury hinders Gamel's presumed defensive improvement he would undergo over the winter.  I ultimately believe the Brewers will be looking elsewhere for a third baseman.
  
• MLB Trade Rumors has a complete history of Doug Melvin's trades.  It is quite interesting to look at.  One quick thing jumps out in my mind.  After analyzing the spreadsheet, not too many impact players came from trades DM made.  The Milwaukee Brewers clearly have been built through free agency and, more importantly, the farm system.
• Kerry Wood will almost certainly not be coming to Milwaukee.  At least, that is what Adam McCalvy believes in his latest blog.  Reading the first comment, fans are so worried about buying free agents when there are plenty of good options internally.  Seth McClung or Carlos Villanueva can certainly handle the ninth inning, while pitchers like Tim Dillard, Mark DiFelice, and Mitch Stetter deserve a shot at the big league squad.  Even right-hander Joe Bateman could be contributing as early as next season in the ROOGY role.
• FanGraphs takes a look at Corey Hart and his dramatic fall over the second half of last season.  There is a lot of great information in the article, and the statistics confirm what we all have known for quite a while.  Corey Hart is a hacker at the plate.  His first-pitch strike percentage at the plate is alarmingly high (over 60%), and he has begun to swing at more pitches off the plate.  It is also extremely interesting to note that Corey did not see too many fastballs at the plate.  The young right-fielder saw the sixth-fewest heaters in the entire league, while seeing way, way more sliders than almost everyone.  I guess opposing pitchers also understood that Corey was going to swing no matter what if given a slider.
• Aaron Gleeman profiles some of the mid-priced relievers on the market this winter.  Will Ohman and even Eric Gagne promise to get a lot of attention over the next few months.  Be sure to read up on Gagne.  He quietly put together a pretty good second half that will land him pretty good money next season.
• The main site profiles Lorenzo Cain and his fantastic Arizona Fall League over the last couple months.  It will be extremely interesting to see how Cain handles the hype next season.  Will he fold under the intense light the Brewers organization and fans will shine upon him, or will he rise to the challenge and become a top-eschelon prospect who can take over center field in 2010?  I have not completely made up my mind on this question as of yet, but his patience will have to improve quite a bit for the latter to become true.
• Hot-Prospects.net takes a look at Brent Brewer and his surprisingly solid stint in the AFL in November.  While the site believes Brent will remain in Class-A+ next season, I would not be surprised to see Brent jump to Huntsville in 2009.  It would get the young man out of the offensive Hell that is the FSL, while giving him the opportunity to show his improvement at a higher level.  Whatever the case may be, Brent has some serious issues to work out defensively.  Do not forget that. (h/t Brew Crew Ball)
  
• In a surprising move today, the San Francisco Giants signed Jeremy Affeldt to a two-year deal worth only $8MM.  This busts my bubble a little, as I thought the Brewers would make a run at Affeldt.  DM could have enticed him with the prospects of a closer's job, while not having to shell out too big of a contract.  Great signing for the Giants.  Too bad it will not matter much unless they can sign some offensive help.
  
• This should particularly interest one reader in particular, but Joe Beimel is being courted by the Giants.  It seems that SF is sincerely attempting to improve a horrendous bullpen from last season.  It is not too difficult to see that Affeldt and Beimel would be a good start.
  

The free agency season is upon us, ladies and gents.  I have quite the plethora of links to trudge through this afternoon.  Hopefully, these will give you something to mull over while at work.

• Let us pause for a second to revel in the greatness of Ryan Braun.  The young left fielder keeps adding to his record-breaking Brewers career by adding a Silver Slugger to his hardware case.  Should we review?  Braun has won the NL Rookie of the Year award, signed a lucrative, yet team-friendly contract, and has now pulled in a Silver Slugger award.  He is not too bad of a player, is he?
• Rumor has it that the Milwaukee Brewers offered CC Sabathia $100MM over five years.  The New York Yankees trumped that deal with an offer believed to be between $140-142MM.  I have not heard how many hears that is for, but the obvious point remains that it dwarf Milwaukee's deal by quite a bit.  The scary thing is that the Yankees will undoubtedly increase that offer after other teams jump into the mix.  The Mets are rumored to be interested, but only perhaps to raise the price tag for the Yanks.
• ESPN.com's Keith Law has his free agent rankings out.  They are a breath of fresh air in a pool of rankings that are overvaluing relievers and closers.  Since it is "insider only," however, I've just included a link from MLB Trade Rumors that gives the highlights.  Jeremy Affeldt could be a steal this offseason.  At the same time, however, many teams feel this way.  The left-hander will get a bigger deal than expected.  Felipe Lopez is also an enigma in these rankings.  His stint with the Cardinals at the end of the season absolutely skyrocketed him up the charts, especially in a weak middle infield market.
• Brewed Sports wants Doug Melvin to sign Kerry Wood and Randy Johnson this offseason.  Wood is interesting, but it will depend on the length of the contract.  Plus, is Doug Melvin willing to give up a first-round pick for Wood's services?  The injury risk is still there, so I doubt Melvin will pony up the cash and a first-round pick for an unreliable arm.  Three years for Johnson?  He is still a strikeout machine at 44-years old, but I believe he will take a one-to-two year deal at about $10-13MM per.  I know Johnson has said that he likes Milwaukee's fanbase.  I do not think that will be enough to land Johnson in Milwaukee.  Melvin wants to go younger in 2009.  (h/t Brew Crew Ball)
• Al from Al's Rumblings believes that a Bill Hall for Mark Teahen from the Kansas City Royals makes tons of sense.  It would fill needs for both teams, but the Royals are probably unlikely to take on Hall's contract without the Crew kicking some money into the deal.  Teahen would provide the Crew with a left-handed bat and passable (maybe) defense at the hot corner.  For the Brewers and Doug Melvin to make this trade, they sincerely have to believe that Teahen's regression last season is an abberation.  He will likely bounce back a bit, as his BABIP was absolutely horrendous between May and August.
• The Milwaukee Brewers picked up Salomon Torres' option yesterday, which keeps him under Milwaukee's control if he wishes to unretire before the season starts.  Good move.  The main site, then, has a preview of what Melvin plans to do with the bullpen for the 2009 season.  Understandably, Melvin is not too worried about the holes in the pen, as there are plenty of arms on the free agent market.  That is the least of his worries at the moment.
• Right Field Bleachers discusses who the Brewers should sign to a long-term contract.  The most popular choice was J.J. Hardy, who will not be as affordable in a long-term contract as many people believe.  It is my firm belief that Hardy is more valuable to the Crew going year-to-year and flipping him for prospects/MLB-ready talent after this season.  It will clearly be unpopular with the fanbase, but it is how the Crew will continue to produce good talent from the pipeline.  How else is Doug Melvin going to procure young pitching? 
  
  I personally love the idea of signing Yovani Gallardo to a long-term contract, however.  Why?  The contract can largely be fashioned after Ryan Braun's contract last season, except it would be cheaper.  Yo has not won any awards, nor has he completed a full season.  There is no doubt in anyone's minds, however, that Yo will be a main cog in Milwaukee's rotation for years to come.  Should DM wait for Yo to put up numbers this year and shell more money out afterwards, or should he act preemptively and secure Yo for pennies on the dollar? 
  
  I do understand that locking up a pitcher in a long-term contract is a big and serious risk to take, but the reward could be huge in just a couple seasons when Yo will be demanding big bucks in arbitration.  Melvin needs to be creative in building this team for the future.  Yo should be an significant portion of that plan.
• Beyond the Box Score analyzes the numbers of wins created or lost by a team's manager.  The formula computes that Ned Yost cost the Brewers .0364 runs over the 2008 season.  That is more evidence supporting my theory that managers actually do not affect the game as much as fans believe they do.  They are merely a figurehead that serves as a scapegoat when teams are doing poorly.  That is obviously a simplistic and overly-generalized statement, but it gets the idea across quite well.
• The Chicago Cubs swapped the hard-throwing Jose Ceda for the injury waiting to happen, Kevin Gregg.  Let's look at this a little closer.  The Cubs gave away six years of a potentially dominating closer for one-year of a reliever who is worse than Kerry Wood.  I am at a loss to explain why Chicago would have done this, except this means Carlos Marmol will be moving to the closer's role.  I am perhaps more excited about this move for the Brewers.  The Cubbies are wasting their best and most versatile arm by relegating him to ninth inning duties.  Nice move.
• Keith Law from ESPN.com says that the Marlins got away with a steal here.  I completely agree.  Gregg should be nothing more than a middle reliever/set-up man at best, while Ceda will have the chance to step into the Marlins' bullpen immediately.  I love it when Keith Law criticizes the Chicago Cubs.
• Right Field Bleachers has some unpopular opinions about what the Brewers should accomplish this winter.  The first involves signing Brad Penny.  No, no, no, no, NO.  The right-handed fireballer has seen a drop in his velocity due to a shoulder injury.  The best part of this is that Penny may still need surgery on that shoulder.  Doug Melvin, if you are reading (which he obviously is), do not touch Penny.  Do not even think about him.
  
  Eric Hinske would be intriguing, but I believe he's going to go somewhere in the AL.  I would love to see Carl Pavano in a Brewers uniform, but only if Doug Melvin could swing a one (maybe two) year deal this winter.  No one should go near Pavano with a long-term deal.  The closer idea that Tyler puts forth?  Agreed.  Wholeheartedly.
• The New York Yankees traded for Nick Swisher from the Chicago White Sox for three players, including Wilson Betemit.  I would have to believe this puts a bit of a damper on the prospects of Mike Cameron going to the Big Apple.  Even though I actually have heard that the New York Mets might be interested in Cameron patrolling the outfield with Carlos Beltran once again.  
• The Brew Town Beat has the Ten Worst Contracts handed out by Milwaukee franchises.  There are plenty of Milwaukee Bucks on the list, but Jeffrey Hammonds checks in at numer one.  I suppose that was not the best idea, was it?
• Brew Crew Ball has their Fall/Winter League Update for yesterday.  Lorenzo Cain continues to light it up in the desert, while Sam Narron has apparently lost all feel for pitching effectively on the mound.  Narron should bounce back eventually, but much of his luster after a pretty good 2008 season has faded away.
• Baseball Musings has a link to a Washington Post article that explains how the Nationals should approach Mark Teixeira this offseason.  After reading the pitch, Tex may have a tough time saying no if Washington is willing to put a ten-year deal on the table.  If I were Teixeira, however, my question to the management would be: Why do you have a gluttony of outfield and first base options while never spending any money on your starting rotation or bullpen?
• The Baseball Analysts take a look at the Rookie of the Year voting.  The NL list is a little ridiculous.  Who thought Edinson Volquez was a rookie?  Should they not check these sorts of things?  Why did Kosuke Fukudome get any votes whatsoever?  I could probably throw him a low-and-away change-up, and he would look completely foolish swinging one-handed at it.  Good thing sportswriters actually pay attention to things.
  

It is a gloomy day outside.  Perhaps some Brewers news can make it a little brighter for you.

• Ken Rosenthal from FOX Sports says that the Brewers should trade Mike Cameron, J.J. Hardy, or Prince Fielder for some pitching help, especially now that Salomon Torres retired.  I got a kick out of hearing Melvin say a GM from a different organization called and offered a "fifth starter" type pitcher for Hardy.  I do not really know what to say about that proposal because it is so bad.
  
  Rosenthal puts out this purely speculative thought: Prince and Cameron for Melky Cabrera, Robinson Cano, and young pitchers.  My gut reaction is to say, "Not even close."  It would depend on the number of young pitchers, I suppose.  At first glance, however, this is an awful deal for the Crew.
• MVN Outsider plays Brewers GM, and let's just say I am glad Doug Melvin is calling the shots.  I am not sold on Phil Hughes yet, and Rickie Weeks is not going to net the Brewers Garrett Atkins.  Casey Blake is also on the downslope of his career and will demand a multi-year contract.  No thanks.  If we are trading Prince Fielder to the Yankees, I would want a package like Ian Kennedy, Hughes, and Cano.
• Adam McCalvy has a mailbag.  Nothing groundbreaking, but it still offers something to read when craving Brewers news.
• I cannot remember if I have ever posted the ZIPS projections for the 2009 Milwaukee Brewers.  Now you have them.
• Brewerfan.net has their October version of Farm Hops posted.  I found it interesting that Jeremy Jeffress got the Pitcher of the Year for BF.net, rather than Chris Cody.  Cody did nothing but impress all season, while Jeffress was up-and-down through three-quarters of the season.  Sure Jeffress is more high-profile and has a higher ceiling, but Chris Cody deserves the award.  At least the Brewers organization gave the left-hander the award in real life.  I am extremely interested to see how he fairs in Huntsville next season.
• Speaking of Farm Hops, Brew Crew Ball has their Fall/Winter League Update from yesterday.  Lorenzo Cain continues to knock the cover off the ball, as well as Brad Nelson.  Good to see Cody Scarpetta dominate through five innings of work.  That kid could be something special in just a couple years.
• It turns out that the Brewers organization at Maryvale gives players just turning 21 a tour of Tent City prison to scare them straight.  The organization does not want any out of control drinking habits.  I did enjoy reading that Mike Tyson spent some time at Tent City and that it's supposed to surprise Brewers prospects.  Mike Tyson in prision does not, and should not, surprise anyone.
• Dugout Central notes that while Salomon Torres did not pitch in the major leagues for five years while he took a break, that is nowhere near the longest hiatus from the bigs.  Paul Schreiber spent 20 years in between Major League appearances.  That is intense.
• As you all probably know, Tim Lincecum won the NL Cy Young.  He deserved it.  The San Francisco Gate, however, is upset that one writer from Chicago did not include Lincecum in his top three.  Why Giants fans care that one voter thought three other pitchers were better than Lincecum, I have no idea.  I also have no idea how the writer from Chicago did not include Lincecum.  The idea that Brandon Webb should have won is ludicrous. 
  
• Pat Neshek, whom members of SportsBubbler have coveted in the past season, will miss all of the 2009 season with a torn ligament in his elbow.  He will undergo Tommy John surgery.  Best of luck to you, Pat.  I hope to see you on the mound again in 2010.
  

In perhaps the most surprising news of the offseason thus far, Brewers closer Salomon Torres decided to hang 'em up today.  He called Doug Melvin and told him in person that he will not be coming back next season.  He wishes to spend more time with his family and his religious values.  I thought it was a great point when Salomon said the fact he's turning down over $3MM for next season illustrates how serious he is about his commitment to retire and to his family.

Bernie's Crew wishes you the best of luck.  Thank you for being an important cog in the Brewers bullpen last season.  No one doubts he was one of the main reasons the Crew pulled out of its early season funk to make the playoffs.  You will be missed, Salomon.

What to do now?  How will DM replace Torres' 3.49 ERA and 28 saves?  Is there a reliever on the market that can handle the 80 inning load Salomon burdened for the Crew last season?

It should not be difficult to find an arm that can notch 28 saves.  As has been routinely discussed on SportsBubbler and elsewhere, the save stat is one of the most overrated stats in the game.  A closer coming into a three-run game in the ninth inning and preserving the lead is neither as difficult nor important as a reliever coming into the game in the seventh inning of a one-run contest and preserving the lead.

I will digress from that conversation, as that is not significant at the moment.  Where will the Brewers go from here?  Will DM stay in-house to fill the closer's role, or will he address the situation via the trade market or free agency?

Today, let us analyze a couple in-house options to the closer's role.

Carlos Villanueva gave the Crew the best innings out of the bullpen last season.  He easily is the best option Doug Melvin has to fill the closer's role without making a splash in the free agent or trade markets.  His 59.1 innings out of the pen (after starting for the first month+ of 2008) easily projects to replicating Torres' 80+ innings he gave Milwaukee in 2008.  Would he be effective in the ninth, however?

The answer appears to be "yes".  CV posted a ridiculous 2.12 ERA in 59.1 innings of work, while averaging 1.05 strikeouts per inning.  Most importantly, Carlos only issued 14 free passes as a reliever.  Yes, that is a 62/14 K/BB ratio (or 4.43 strikeouts per walk issued).  The peripheral stats seem to suggest that CV could be an absolutely dominant closer for Milwaukee.

I do hold some reservations, however.  Carlos did benefit from a fair amount of luck.  When hitters did put the ball in play, their BABIP was only .280.  One can assume that number will increase a bit next season.  That will result in more runners on base for CV.  This is not beneficial for any reliever, much less Carlos.  With runners on base last season, CV allowed hitters to bat .288 with a .350 OBP.  It is important to note that these statistics include his stint as a struggling starter at the beginning of the year, but the trend still remains.

In addition, Villanueva tends to struggle in high leverage situations.  Using Baseball Reference's definitions of "high leverage," one sees that Carlos gives up a .296 batting average with a .370 OBP.  Back that up with the fact that he gives up only a .255 BA in low leverage situations, Ken Macha may be wise to keep CV away from the ninth inning.

Despite these reservations, Carlos Villanueva seems to be a very solid candidate for the closer's role for Milwaukee.  He strikes out tons of batters while not issuing too many free passes.  He could work as a Trevor Hoffman-type pitcher for the Crew.  Whether it is beneficial for the Crew to limit one of their most versatile arms to only one inning is still up for debate.  I tend to favor CV pitching in tight situations ranging from the seventh to the ninth inning, but Milwaukee seems to shy away from those undefined roles in the bullpen.

The other arm that could thrive in the closer's role is Seth McClung.  The big, redheaded fireballer certainly has the stuff to be dominant in the ninth inning.  His mid-to-high 90s fastball and hard overhand curve could prove devastating to other teams.  His 37 strikeouts in 41.2 innings of work out of the bullpen supports that idea.  He also only allowed two home runs in his stint as a reliever, so he seems to not have the Eric Gagne syndrome where he gives up more long balls than singles.

No one can touch Seth McClung when he is throwing strikes.  The problem remains that Seth is quite wild on the mound from time to time.  In those same 41.2 innings out of the bullpen, he issued 26 walks.  That 37/26 K/BB ratio (or 1.42 strikeouts per walk issued) is far worse than the ratio CV put together last season.  If the Brewers and Ken Macha believe that Seth can harness his wildness issues a bit, he could be a prime candidate to take over Salomon Torres' job.

It is easier to see that McClung's situation is much more cut and dry than that of Villanueva's.  If McClung is throwing strikes, he will almost certainly escape the inning unscathed.  It simply depends on the day, as the Brewers never know if the wild McClung or the controlled McClung is going to show up any day.

There is also an issue with McClung's desire to be a starter for the Crew.  He stepped in last season and tossed some quality innings when the Brewers needed him to produce after Villanueva proved to be ineffective in the rotation.  It has been reported that McClung is lobbying to begin 2009 in the rotation, and he is training as such.  Perhaps he does hold more value as a starting pitcher if he can stretch his arm out a bit more.  That is yet to be seen.

Neither pitcher excites me too much in the closer's role.  I would rather Carlos Villanueva pitch in the seventh and eighth innings to utilize his flexibility as a reliever, while Seth McClung is a little too wild for me to trust him at the end of a game.  Doug Melvin may have to head outside Milwaukee to find a closer for the 2009 season.  The key is finding an arm that does not cost too much money and is young enough to warrant the multi-year deal that most closers will undoubtedly demand.  In the coming days, Bernie's Crew will take a look at some of the options outside the Brewers organization to fill the closer's role.