There's a scene in the great movie 'Major League' where the coach walks up to his team and says something like, "I figure it'll take 35 more victories to win this thing." He then reveals a life-size cut out of their former stripper turned owner, Rachel Phelps. With each win the team would pull an article of the cut out's clothing until she stood there bright eyed and stark. Why do I bring this up?
At the end of every game recap, Jim and I have a subtext, "Countdown to 92 wins," which we both believe is the magic number of wins the Brewers need to get to make the playoffs. After Wednesday's game the Brewers must take 19 more victories from the 34 games left to play. In a two part series, today and tomorrow, I'm going to break down the seven remaining teams the Brewers will take on in the final six weeks of the regular season, analyzing their strengths and weaknesses, as well as what the Brewers are expected to do as well as what they need to do to hit the 92 plateau.
Pittsburgh Pirates (57-69):
Starting this weekend the Brewers are going to run into the Pittsburgh Pirates, who are currently 20.5 GB in the division. In a complete turn around the most interesting thing about the Pirates is no longer Jason Bay and Xavier Nady, since both were traded to an AL East contender. This bodes well for the Crew because they take on the Pirates nine times in their final 34, playing six at home and three on the road. What is interesting about the Bucs now, is the recent success of their starting pitching staff, which has really been carrying the load since the departure of their big bats. Paul Maholm is being molded into a solid #2 starter, recent acquisition, Jeff Karstens, has been quite impressive in his first four starts with his new team, and a great month from Ian Snell have made the men in black and yellow anything but a pushover down the stretch.
With that being said, the Brewers are more than capable of taking 7/9 from such an offesnsiveless team. In their trade of Bay, the Pirates picked up Andy LaRoche and Brent Moss. Moss is hitting a dismal .193/.292/.351 since moving to Pitt and LaRoche .170/.278/.322. These numbers are definitely not indicators of what their talent will amount to, but they're so green that the Pirates are willing to deal with their rough play. This leaves the Pirate offense with only three legitimate threats: Adam LaRoche, Ryan Doumit and Nate McClouth. McClouth has tapered off a bit, which was to be expected, but continues to swing a solid bat and get on base in front of the big guys. Doumit is the biggest surprise to me as far as catchers go, hitting .328/.366/.523 this season. Finally, Adam LaRoche is notoriously awful in the first half of the season, only to jump back on the horse after the break. This year is no different. After the month of June, LaRoche was hitting .230/.305/.376. But a .390/.472/.805 July and a solid August after a brief DL stint has him all of the way up to .267/.344/.468. Beware of the big man, he was a bit of a gimme in the beginning, but he's got things figured out now.
So why 7/9? First of all consider the fact that the Pirates won't be changing up much during the September call-ups. Moss and LaRoche are already up, Doumit is under control for three more seasons and so is pretty much the rest of the team. So what you see, is what you get. The Brewers will be letting Dave Bush throw three times against the Pirates, which is a little bit of a worry, but they'll also be tossing up CC twice and a Sheets/Parra duo in the final weekday series of the year. A 7-2 record against these guys will almost be expected, but a 6-3 record is more than a dent for a 19-15 run.
St. Louis Cardinals (70-58):
The Cardinals are a story that's fun to read about and scary to think about if you're a Brewers' fan. Tony LaRussa, Hal McRae and Dave Duncan are, in my opinion, the best coaching staff around, and have this Cardinals' squad only 2.5 GB of the Wild Card. LaRussa does some odd things in games and with his lineup, but he knows exactly how to get his players to play the best baseball they're capable of. But Tony's moniker comes with the talent of Hal McRae and Dave, who undoubtedly make the Cards' manager look like a genius. These men turn around careers like you wouldn't believe and make weak pitchers, very solid ones. It's interesting to think about what LaRussa and his staff of coaches could do with talent like the Crew has. Oh wait, they did by winning a World Series not to long ago, and they're doing their best to get that opportunity again this season.
As always, the big guy to watch out for on the Cards is Albert Pujols, who is having another ridiculous season, batting .347/.457/.613, all with pretty much one elbow. This elbow injury will force Albert into offseason surgery, but apparently it's good enough to have a better BA/OBP/SLG than every Brewer. But Albert's production has been nearly mirrored by an improved Ryan Ludwick, who is hitting .304/.380/.608 with more homeruns and RBIs than Pujols. Ludwick's production is still very tough for me to swallow, since I remember him flailing at pitches not too long ago. Unfortunately, you can't overlook him now. Pujols and Ludwick are without a doubt the best 1-2 punch in the NL this year.
The Cardinals have a huge Achilles' heel though, and it reared it's ugly head when they got swept by the Brewers last month. Even with the potential addition of Adam Wainwright down the road (which doesn't look like is going to happen), the Red Birds bullpen has been anything but reliable. It all started with the fall from grace of former closer Jason Isringhausen, who has been serviceable, but a big bust this season. Ryan Franklin tried to help out with the closer situation, but had his own troubles. Rookies Kyle McClellan and Chris Perez have picked up the slack, but are only do so much, leaving the 'pen is as vulnerable as ever.
The Brewers will only face the Wild Card chasing Cardinals twice the remainder of the season, and will throw Sheets and Parra to the mound at new Busch Stadium. The Cards will likely send out Braden Looper and Todd Wellenmeyer based on current projections, but you can't be for sure since Chris Carpenter's most recent DL stint has thrown a wrench into the machine. Wainwright may have his way into this serious as well. Whoever does toe the rubber, the Brewers will need to be patient and force high pitch counts in order to increase their opportunities for runs. The earlier you get to the bullpen, the more opportunities you will undoubtedly receive. A 1-1 split in St. Louis is all you can hope for considering the Crew just took four straight from them on their last trip.
New York Mets (69-57):
The Mets mirror the 1982 Brewers way more than the 2008 Brewers do. Willie Randolph was fired on June 17th this season when the Mets were 34-36 and were 5.5 games out of the division lead. Interim coach Jerry 'don't call me Charlie' Manuel struggled just as much as Willie early on, but has led this team into the NL East lead by showing true leadership. Manuel exerted his will early and often by benching some of his superstars to give them a few days to recharge their batteries. The results were astonishing, especially the nine game win streak going into the ASB.
What has been the difference? Well it's obviously not just Jerry. Lately it's been the rejuvenated play of his starting rotation. Johan Santana has been solid all season, but wasn't getting victories because of the bullpen or a lack of run support. These bumps in the road sent the rest of the rotation down a jagged road. Oliver Perez started walking batters at an epic clip. John Maine stopped throwing strikes and was seeing his pitch counts hit the hundred mark in fifth inning of games. And Pedro Martinez was either too old or too hurt to do a good job. But all four of these starters have picked up their game over the past few weeks. Thrown in the solid arm of young Mike Pelfrey, who has been the most overlooked pitcher in baseball this season, and this Met rotation is as well rounded as ever before.
The offense has picked it up as well, with Carlos Delgado leading the way after the fans and media were calling for his skin. On June 17th, Delgado was hitting an awful .238/.317/.401 clip. Since then Delgado has been something to behold, especially in the month of July when he hit .357/.445/.714 with nine long balls and 24 RBIs. Now you know one of the biggest reasons for that nine game win streak. Carlos has tapered off this month, but is still to be feared as is pretty much the rest of the Mets lineup. The sleeper on the team, though, is Fernando Tatis, who is hitting .294/.359/.489 under the radar. There's really no time to let up against these guys.
But just like the Cardinals, the Mets have a very fragile bullpen. Aaron Heilman has fallen off considerably this season, as has Duaner Sanchez. If it wasn't for Billy Wagner being so solid all year and the emergence of Scott Schoeneweis, the Mets would be in pretty rough shape. The problem, however, is that Billy is not healthy at all and his availability is a day to day adventure. As a result, the Brewers will have to take the same approach to Mets as to the Cardinals: be patient. I don't necessarily mean take walks, but battle at the plate and don't try and hit the ball out of the park every AB. You can do that in the later innings when the weak bullpen starts making mistakes. It won't be easy though.
If all goes to plan for the Mets, the Brewers will be taking on Pedro Martinez, Johan Santana and John Maine in a three game set at Miller Park. The Brewers will counter with Sheets, Parra and Bush. The matchups look decent, but any time you face the Mets it's going to be a tough battle. For the Brewers to stay on pace, I really believe they'll have to go 2-1 in the series because the Crew is sitting on a recipe of disaster in their final road trip, where they'll go to Philadelphia for four games, Chicago for three and Cincinnati for three more. Is it possible? Absolutely, but they'll need Ryan Braun to be healthy to make it work.
Tomorrow we'll take a look at those final three teams as well as the San Diego Padres.