First off, I'm going to respectfully bow out of yesterday's game. After the last couple games, I turned the TV off in disgust after Dave Bush gave up 6 runs in the first inning. So much for his run of good pitching. He'll bounce back though, I'm sure. Bushy just needs to control the long ball to be successful, and he did not do that Wednesday.
Instead of discussing a game I chose not to watch for my mental health, this may be a good time to discuss why Manny Parra is struggling in the past month on the mound. He is an interegal part of Milwaukee's postseason chances and later plans. Why has he not been performing well as of late. Is it just as simple as his control being his downfall? Let's take a closer look.
Comparing numbers from the first half of the season to the second half, his walk-to-strikeout ratio has actually improved, which is quite surprising. In the first half, Manny walked a batter once every other inning (50 BB in 100 IP), but that number has dropped in the second half. It is now only 19 BB in 53.2 innings pitched. That's a marked improvement. His strikeout rate has even improved in the past few months, as the left-hander is whiffing more than one batter an inning later in the season.
So Manny is not walking batters more often, and he's striking them out more frequently. All seems well in the world. He must have the Dave Bush syndrome then...the home runs...
No so fast. In the first half of the season in those 100 innings of work, Manny gave up 9 homers. The young man has only given up 4 long balls in the second half. Wow. His walk rate is better, the strikeout rate has improved, and he's giving up the same - if not fewer - home runs as in the first half...yet he's performing quite poorly in August and thus far in September.
Manny's stuff is certainly not decreasing. Dixieflatline (Josh Kalk) has a great depiction of that over at Brew Crew Ball. Ever want to know what the difference between his splitter and his change-up are? That article will clear it up for you. In short, the movement has remained constant throughout 2008. What is the problem?
The problem could be that he didn't performing that badly in August. His 4.25 ERA in the month is better than his numbers in April and May, so many of the issues are Brewers fans expecting too much from a rookie pitcher who is throwing more innings than he has ever thrown in a single season. It is only natural that he'll experience a bit of dead arm and struggle for a bit. It is nothing to be concerned about.
Another thing that is interesting about Manny's season is that his batting average and on-base percentages allowed in August are better than in July, when his record and ERA were far superior. In July, the lefty gave up a .272 BA and .333 OBP, but Manny dropped those down to a .269 and .320 in August, respectively. Things seem to be a bit amiss until considering the slugging percentage. Opponents slugged about 60 points higher in August than in July (.387 to .328).
The other stat that may explain the sudden mediocrity of Manny Parra is the BABIP in the two halves of the season. In the first portion of 2008, the southpaw sported a solid .307 batting average on balls in play. That number jumped to .363 in the second half. More of the balls hitting the bats are becoming hits and finding the empty areas of the field. If you believe in "regressing towards the mean," that BABIP should fall a bit in the remaining part of the second half, which could lead to more quality starts from Manny Parra.
In short, Milwaukee's #3 starter is not struggling as much as many Brewers fans are making it sound. He is young and in uncharted territory with his arm, all while facing the bad luck of a higher BABIP. Coupled with a higher walk rate and strikeout rate, Manny is due for a string of solid starts on the mound. I hope this eases your worries about Manny Parra and the prospect of his success down the stretch. With that said, I wouldn't be surprised to see Milwaukee be cautious with his arm in September and skip a start or two. The rosters are expanded for a reason.