In the off season before the 2008 baseball season, I started to write my own blog on the Brewers.  I just couldn't get over some people giving free passes to some and not to others.  The first free pass given at the beginning of the season was to Dave Bush.  And for some reason, everyone, including Ned Yost, said this guy has won 12 games in each of the past two seasons and will be in the rotation as a result.  I nearly lost my head.  In response to this I went over every single Dave Bush start in this article.  This season I've been pretty tight lipped, leaving Dave Bush alone since I made the move to Bernie's Crew, but with the playoffs coming and his recent success, the numbers need to be broken down.

First, let's look at last season's numbers.  Dave Bush went 12-10 in 2007, carrying a 5.12 ERA in 186.1 innings.  He gave up 27 HRs, struck out 134 and walked 44.  This gives him a 1.40 WHIP, 1.30 HR/9, 6.47 K/9 and 2.13 BB/9.  His GB/FB ratio was a meager 1.14, making it tough for him to pick up the double play ball.  And for good measure, Bush's BABIP (Batting Average of Balls Batted In Play) was .327. 

This season, Dave is 9-10 with a 4.33 ERA over 158.0 IP.  During that time he's given up 25 HRs, struck out 96 and walked 38 batters.  This give him a 1.15 WHIP, 1.42 HR/9, 5.47 K/9 and 2.16 BB/9.  His GB/FB ratio is all the way down to 1.02, making GIDPs even more rare.  And finally, that extra little guy?  His BABIP this season: .254.

So what do all these numbers mean?  Let's break it down step by step.  Bush has dropped his ERA almost an entire run from last year, which is a breath of fresh air, but it doesn't make much sense.  His K Rate is down a full point per nine, while his walk rate stayed nearly identical.  His HR rate has increased just a bit and he is on pace to give up 2-3 more HRs than he did last season.  Nothing really alarming there.  His GB/FB raio continued its steady decline, but somehow his BABIP dropped 73 points!  The league average is right around .300.  What does that say?  Dave Bush is one lucky guy.

Bush is essentially pitching exactly how he did last season, but is having a good looking season because of improved outfield defense and quite a bit of luck.  Last year, he found himself struggling with a virgin center fielder and the platoon of Kevin Mench and Geoff Jenkins.  This made it difficult for all of the pitchers to keep their BABIP below the league average, but it by no means is the sole reason why he has the lowest BABIP of his career.  While he's dropped his line drive rate 1.4%, the increased fly ball rate and lower K-rate are indicators of a downfall for a pitcher.  Instead, Dave Bush has apparently become a better one.

But there's more to the story.  The Brewers are 14-11 this season when Dave Bush starts, but eight of those wins came against teams under .500.  In fourteen starts against teams above .500, the Brewers are 6-8.  And the differences between these two sets of games are immense.  Bush carries a 3.15 ERA in eleven games against teams below .500.  In 71.1 IP, he's struck out 53, walked 14 and given up just eight longballs.  That gives him an average outing of 6.5 IP/G, 1.01 HR/9, 1.76 BB/9 and 6.68 K/9.  Those are pretty solid numbers no matter who's pitching; that is until you look at his numbers against quality teams.

What happens when you take out the four gems he tossed against the offenseless Pirates and Atlanta Braves?  In 14 starts against teams with above .500 records, Dave Bush is carrying a 5.36 ERA over 85.2 IP.  He's struck out 42, walked 24 and given up 17 long balls.  This gives him an average outing of 6.1 IP/G, 1.79 HR/9, 2.52 BB/9, and 4.41 K/9.  Talk about night and day.  And if I could, I'd take out that eight inning, one run performance against the Blue Jays when they were struggling, but I could manipulate all day if I wanted to (It would send his ERA to 5.86).  The drastic change in all of these numbers is a scary thought considering the Brewers schedule down the stretch.  Bush is scheduled to pitch against Cincinatti on Monday night, but he's also scheduled to take the mound twice more against the Cubs and once against the Phillies.  That doesn't bode well for the Crew since Bush gave up six earnies in his last two outings against the Cubs and four against the Phils.

The Brewers are clinging to a four game lead in the Wild Card, and are just four behind the Cubs in the NL Central with nineteen games to play.  Good performances from Dave Bush will obviously be necessary, but it's hard to believe they'll be there for three of his four starts.  It makes me wonder if Yost made the right decision to stick with his rotation despite numerous days off.  The take home message is simple.  Dave Bush is not that good even if his ERA looks pretty.  He's serviceable against bad teams, but what big league pitcher isn't?  Even Jorge De La Rosa can pitch a gem against the Pirates.  Let's hope he can find a way to get a couple of decent outings against solid teams, but don't be surprised to see the Phillies and Cubs put some balls in the stands.