Here at Bernie's Crew we want to continue to improve our work and be
one of the most original and reliable blogs on the internet. With that
being said, instead of going through the 2008 season, give some grades
and simply review the different sides of the game, I'm going to do a
weekly/bi-weekly series (time permitting) to review the season of each
individual player. Upon completion of each review, we should be able
to judge if this player lived up to their expectations, what should be
expected of them in the 2009 season and what they'll need to improve as
they continue to their career.
Last week I reviewed the season of free agent pick up Jason Kendall, and sticking with that theme, we'll review another Brewers off season pick up in Mike Cameron. But the real reason for discussing Cameron now is because the Brewers have to decide whether to exercise his $10M option or not within five days of the completion of the World Series. With the Phillies' bats smoking and the Cinderella dust blowing a way a bit for the Rays, that deadline may be coming sooner rather than later.
Mike Cameron inked a two year deal with the Brewers on January 14th of this year, in which he would be paid a $5M base salary in 2008 with a $1.25M signing bonus and a $10M club option or $750K buy out for 2009. The interesting aspect of this acquisition, however, was that Cameron had already been suspended by the league for the first 25 games of the year because of testing positive for a banned substance. As a result, Mike Cameron would only receive $4.22M for the 2008 season, a relative steal if you consider the potential the 35 year old center fielder had.
As with Jason Kendall, it really didn't appear that Mike was brought in for his bat. In 2007, he batted just .242/.328/.431 for the San Diego Padres, with 21 HRs and 78 RBIs. The big problem for most Brewers fans, however, was Mike Cameron struck out 160 times that year, placing him in the top ten in the league. Considering we had just given up K-machines in Geoff Jenkins and Kevin Mench, it couldn't get much worse, but still. It needs to be noted, though, that Mike's power numbers were a bit squandered by the pitcher-friendly PETCO Park. Twenty-one home runs as a Padre may just be equivalent to around thirty at Miller Park.
Those are big ifs, but there's always been one non-if in Mike Cameron's game, which is what the Brewers wanted most. In 2007, the Brewers had Bill Hall roaming center field, and it was hardly a sight for sore eyes. While Billy got better down the stretch, Ryan Braun was too good and too bad to keep at third base, and an upgrade was clearly necessary at third and center. How about a three time Gold Glove Award Winner with decent power and and incredible first step? Sorry Tony Gwynn Jr.
Brewers fans didn't get to find out what that might right away, though. While Mike was able to play in the Brewers Spring Training exhibition games, he wasn't allowed to travel with the team the opening week of baseball. In fact, because of that 25 game suspension, Cameron didn't see playing time until the second round of games at Wrigley Field on April 29th. He didn't disappoint, as he went 3 for 5 on the night with a double, two singles, two runs, two RBIs and a walk in a 10-7 victory over the North Siders. Talk about a debut.
Unfortunately the magic left quickly, as Mike's lack of playing time over the first month of the season threw his timing horribly off. He did show flashes of brilliance in May with six multi-hit games and seven homeruns, but in the end, he hit .212/.262/.451 including 40 strikeouts and just eight walks. It was brutal, I mean really brutal to watch Mike's ABs. Those numbers indicate that nearly half of his ABs resulted in either a K, a walk or a homerun (The Three True Outcomes), with the bulk taking on the K variety. Fortunately for Mike that .451 slugging kept fans at ease. The strikeouts would continue undoubtedly, but the average could only go up. Even better, Mike's defense was helping more than many could have expected, though it often went unnoticed. Thankfully, with the exception of a few blunders, this aspect of Cam's game never quit.
In June, Mike didn't find much help at the plate, but the power numbers never stopped as he was able to hit .203/.324/.475, tossing in five long balls, 11 walks and just 21 K's over that period. It was nice to see Cam's approach improve some, but with Gabe Kapler playing well and Cam struggling, Mike saw the bench far more often, amassing just 59 ABs during the month. Later in the month it wasn't just benching either, as Cameron hyperextended his big toe, creating even more playing time for Kapler, who wouldn't let that go to waste. By the end of the month, Cam was hitting just .227/.316/.462 overall, and fans were starting to lose patience. Minus his two run go ahead shot against the Twins and his big game against the Cubs, he was starting to look like a calculated risk that didn't amount to much.
Fortunately, things would start on the upswing for Cameron in the month of July, as he hit .250/.357/.464 with three home runs, but only 23 K's and 13 BBs. As you can see, the home run balls dropped considerably, but the K rate fell, the BB rate jumped and the slugging remained the same thanks to nine doubles. Now this is the guy we were looking for. The month included 14 RBIs, and a game winning hit in the top of the ninth to defeat the D'Backs. It was at this time that Brewers fans started to take notice, and a month later, all of them seemed to think his $10M was a no brainer.
And who wouldn't after a month of .360/.448/.753 baseball? The guy could do no wrong in the month of August as he and JJ Hardy carried the team on their backs to a 20-7 record. Cameron recorded 32 hits during that time, including nine homeruns, six doubles and 22 RBIs. This came all while striking out just 23 times, a small number for Mike, and walking 12. Even more intriguing was his eight steals with only one caught stealing. It was like he flipped the switch and all of those failed plate appearances required a reversion to the mean, and he did so with a fury.
But... the problem with reverting to the mean on such a tear is you revert back to your true mean like a box of rocks. Cameron reminded Brewers fans he's no Albert Pujols by completely disappearing during the final 28 games of the year. Cameron fell to a .176.257/.253 batting line in the month of September, amassing just three extra base hits in his final 91 ABs. Even worse, that K rate jumped back up and the the BB rate fell, as he struck out 34 times, while walking only eight times. What happened? No one really knows, but that's how baseball usually works. You can't stay hot forever, and for your average player, your slumps always seem to match your hot streaks.
Mike's final line looks like this: .243/.331/.477, 25 HRs, 70 RBIs, 142 K's, 54 BBs and 17 SBs in 508 PAs, with just one error on the season. This is a very interesting stat line, especially if you consider his last two seasons with the Padres. In 141 and 151 games in 2006 and 2007, Cameron hit 22 and 21 homeruns respectively, meaning his HR rate rose dramatically with the ball park, but it also didn't drop much with his age, considering he hit 30 HRs in 2004 with the Mets with just 50 additional ABs. What is scary, however, is that Cameron was able to strikeout 142 times this season, the same amount of times he struck out in 2006, when he had nearly 130 additional plate appearances. That could be attributed to the lack of timing the first month of the season, but the final month really says something against that.
Meeting Expectations: The Milwaukee Brewers asked Mike Cameron to do one thing this year, be average at the plate, hit some home runs and play defense. While I didn't show you how good Cameron was in the field, it's pretty clear he was an upgrade over Bill Hall. I think every one can agree that if those were, in fact, the expectations of Mike Cameron coming in, he fulfilled them exactly. Doug Melvin ultimately knew what he was getting, 140-150 K's, 25-30 HRs and outstanding range. That was for sure worth $4.22M. But is it worth $10M?
It's a hard question to answer. Considering Cameron turns 36 in January, how long before the guy really starts his downfall? It's not like he's Kenny Lofton or anything. What is most interesting to me, and was left out above, is that at the beginning of 2008, I suggested Cameron is the perfect platoon player to go with Lofton based on their previous seasons. In 2008 Cam hit lefties for a .282/.397/.555 clip, but only hit righties at a .231/.309/.452 clip. That's not exactly Bill Hall splits, but it's hardly the type of numbers this team needs to move forward. If you consider Mike a platoon player, then it's pretty clear $10M is far from worth that kind of money.
But there's something to be said about a potential 25 HR, 20 SB player in bigs. While Cam was unable to hit that 20 SB plateau, I imagine he would have with 30 extra games. One extra year of aging definitely lowers that potential, but that kind of production is hard to find in the big leagues. If you tack on solid defensive range and a veteran in the clubhouse, who clearly many of the younger players, especially Weeks, Hall and Fielder, look up to, there's definitely a case for the $10M. (Sidenote: I forgot to mention the only knock against Cam's defense, which is his below average arm, but that's rarely a problem)
Prediction: So do the Brewers exercise the option? It's really hard to say. Much of it has to do with what the rest of the roster is going to look like. If Sabathia appears to be truly interested in staying with the Brewers, there's no way you can exercise that option. Obviously those chances are slim, but if those chances are legit, you cannot, I repeat, cannot put $10M in the hands of a centerfielder whose age may be in issue in 2009. Unfortunately the caviate is that CC really likes Cameron. Hopefully CC's best friend, Dave Riske, can sate the friendly fix of the Brewers.
Now, if CC is clearly out of the picture, the option becomes foggy. You know that Prince Fielder is going to get a giant raise, Tony Gwynn Jr is required to be on the big league squad and the starting rotation has questions. Can that $10M be used to improve the team with regard to its big holes? Conversely, Cameron's defense will be a big help to the Brewers staff as his range will take away hitters' fair share of extra base hits, and his ability to work with guys like Corey Hart and Ryan Braun on their routes is invaluable. But then you need to consider that Cam represents the biggest flaw in the team philosophy, high K rate, low BB rate and big power. The whole team is beaming with it and it was the biggest complaint of Brewers fans all over. "If we don't hit a home run, we don't score." Hell, I was one of those whiners.
Whatever the case may be, if Cameron is a Brewer next season, expect more of the same. I see another 25 HR season, but that wear and tear of age is going to push that K total well over 160. His regression may even push his average into the lower/below .240s. Hopefully that age will also bring wisdom though and Cam can get his OBP up above the league average, and make that money seem like a bargain. With that said, he's no longer the middle of the lineup hitter he used to be, and I fully expect the Brewers to buy out his option and look elsewhere, either in trade or within the system because there isn't a decent FA CF on the market. It'll ultimately be the very first decision the new Brewers' manager will make with Doug Melvin and will represent his new team philosophy.