BC Interview with Tim Dierkes (from MLBTR)

Tim Dierkes, the founder and main contributor of MLB Trade Rumors, was nice enough to answer some questions about the Brewers upcoming offseason moves.  If you have the chance, stop on over to his site and thank him for his time.

Bernie's Crew:  As it's on the forefront of many Brewers fans' minds, what are the chances that Milwaukee is able to resign CC Sabathia?  Do you think it would be a beneficial move for Doug Melvin?

Tim Dierkes:  I would put the chances at less than 5%.  I don't think it'd be a good move for the franchise, putting over 25% of payroll in one pitcher.
 
BC:  Which free agents do you see on Milwaukee's radar this winter?
 
Dierkes:  It seems that Sabathia and Sheets will be gone, giving Melvin some cash for a solid veteran free agent pitcher.  A front-rotation guy like Burnett could make sense.  It'd also make sense to bring Durham back or find another veteran 2B to challenge Weeks.  They could be in the Brian Fuentes mix as well, or pursue a trade for a closer.
 
BC:  Which of those players has the best chance of wearing Brewers blue next April? 
 
Dierkes:  Well, those names are just speculation on my part so I really can't say.  An affordable 2B will be the easy part, so I'd be surprised if that doesn't happen.
 
BC:  Rumors have been flying around about Prince Fielder and J.J. Hardy.  What are the chances that one of those two are traded this offseason?
 
Dierkes:  Seems pretty good that one is traded, I'll put it at a one in three shot. 
 
BC:  Which team matches up best with the Brewers for a trade?  What would be the return in a deal with Fielder or Hardy?
 
Dierkes:  I looked at some possible Fielder suitors here:
 
 
I could see the Yankees getting into the mix for Prince if they don't sign Teixeira.  Hardy I don't expect to be traded, but the Orioles, Jays, Tigers, Royals, Twins, Giants, and Dodgers could match up.  It'd make sense to target pitching or third base help...the team would be getting three years of Fielder, two of Hardy.  But since Hardy plays shortstop he might draw a bounty just as big.
 
BC:  What do you feel Milwaukee has to do this winter to have a competitive team in 2009?
 
Dierkes:  Probably import a #2 and a #3 starter.  An upgrade at third base would not hurt, unless Hardy is moved there. 
 
BC:  In the past month or so, some have criticized the job Doug Melvin has done while in Milwaukee.  Is that too harsh, or is that criticism warranted?
 
Dierkes:  I am surprised to hear that, I have mostly read praise for Melvin in the wake of the Sabathia deal.  That was an excellent win-now move.  In general I have liked the vast majority of Melvin's moves...only the Suppan signing jumps to mind as a clearly bad one.
 
BC:  Give Brewers fan a sleeper that could be playing for Milwaukee next season.
 
Dierkes:  Randy Wolf, Curt Schilling maybe?

Comments

 

klwillis45 said:

Wolf, no thanks.

Schilling is an intriguing option.

October 10, 2008 2:33 PM
 

citron1616 said:

Here's my take on those questions; if anybody is interested in an alternative opinion:

"Bernie's Crew:  As it's on the forefront of many Brewers fans' minds, what are the chances that Milwaukee is able to resign CC Sabathia?  Do you think it would be a beneficial move for Doug Melvin?"

I'd actually put the chances around 35%.  I think it's already well documented that the Brewers are team that CC is certainly willing to play for over a decent stretch of time.  If the Brewers decide not to pick up Mike Cameron's option, CC is within the range of affordability and this is a deal that might very well get done as long as a California team doesn't throw "Yankee money" at him.  As far as it being a beneficial move for Doug Melvin, of course it would be beneficial.  Having CC Sabathia, Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra at the top of your rotation for the next four years gives the Brewers as good a rotation as anyone in the league and no matter what the offense turns out to be, that rotation gives the Brewers a perennially competitive team.

"BC:  Which free agents do you see on Milwaukee's radar this winter?"

I find it very interesting that Tim threw Burnett's name in that mix.  I hadn't thought of that possibility because I highly doubt that he makes his way out of the AL East.  He has been a thorn in the side of the Yankees and Red Sox for years and each of them would love to get ahold of the guy.  The name that came to mind for me (if the Brewers lose out on Sabathia) was Derek Lowe.  Lowe is coming off a very good year (14-11, 3.24 ERA) and has pitched 180+ innings each of the last 7 years.  If the Brewers are going to give big money to a free agent pitcher, he has to be one that the team is sure will make his scheduled starts.  Another name that comes to mind, that happens to also come from the Dodgers, is Casey Blake.  With Bill Hall way in over his head as an everyday player, the Brewers desperately need a right-handed bat at the hot corner.  Blake could be that guy.

"BC:  Rumors have been flying around about Prince Fielder and J.J. Hardy.  What are the chances that one of those two are traded this offseason?"

This is another case of, what happens with CC Sabathia?  If the Brewers are unable to land Sabathia, we may see Fielder sent in a package to the Giants for Matt Cain (if that rumor has any truth to it).  But if Sabathia stays, I would imagine that he would almost insist that Fielder stay with him; those two have been nearly inseperable since the day CC arrived in Milwaukee.  As for JJ, I actually see the Brewers targeting him as the next candidate for a long-term deal.  After his "out of nowhere" year of 2007, he may have faultered a bit by not being able to improve on his production numbers.  His 2008 was almost identical to 2007 which could hint towards Hardy already playing to the best of his ability and not a player who is going to waiver too much from that 20 HR, 80 RBI, .280 mark.  Don't get me wrong, that is great production from the SS position but the my estimate would be that Hardy gets between $3.5-$4.5M in arbitration or he could instead want to sign a multi-year deal that avoids going year-to-year.  I think Prince and Boras will ask for $10M and the Brewers will offer $7M and likely win the case.  

The rest of my answers would pretty much echo my previous answers so I won't bother reiterating.  Just another take on the situation.

October 10, 2008 4:06 PM
 

Weekend Links « MLB Interviews.com said:

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October 12, 2008 3:19 PM

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