In perhaps the most surprising news of the offseason thus far, Brewers closer Salomon Torres decided to hang 'em up today. He called Doug Melvin and told him in person that he will not be coming back next season. He wishes to spend more time with his family and his religious values. I thought it was a great point when Salomon said the fact he's turning down over $3MM for next season illustrates how serious he is about his commitment to retire and to his family.
Bernie's Crew wishes you the best of luck. Thank you for being an important cog in the Brewers bullpen last season. No one doubts he was one of the main reasons the Crew pulled out of its early season funk to make the playoffs. You will be missed, Salomon.
What to do now? How will DM replace Torres' 3.49 ERA and 28 saves? Is there a reliever on the market that can handle the 80 inning load Salomon burdened for the Crew last season?
It should not be difficult to find an arm that can notch 28 saves. As has been routinely discussed on SportsBubbler and elsewhere, the save stat is one of the most overrated stats in the game. A closer coming into a three-run game in the ninth inning and preserving the lead is neither as difficult nor important as a reliever coming into the game in the seventh inning of a one-run contest and preserving the lead.
I will digress from that conversation, as that is not significant at the moment. Where will the Brewers go from here? Will DM stay in-house to fill the closer's role, or will he address the situation via the trade market or free agency?
Today, let us analyze a couple in-house options to the closer's role.
Carlos Villanueva gave the Crew the best innings out of the bullpen last season. He easily is the best option Doug Melvin has to fill the closer's role without making a splash in the free agent or trade markets. His 59.1 innings out of the pen (after starting for the first month+ of 2008) easily projects to replicating Torres' 80+ innings he gave Milwaukee in 2008. Would he be effective in the ninth, however?
The answer appears to be "yes". CV posted a ridiculous 2.12 ERA in 59.1 innings of work, while averaging 1.05 strikeouts per inning. Most importantly, Carlos only issued 14 free passes as a reliever. Yes, that is a 62/14 K/BB ratio (or 4.43 strikeouts per walk issued). The peripheral stats seem to suggest that CV could be an absolutely dominant closer for Milwaukee.
I do hold some reservations, however. Carlos did benefit from a fair amount of luck. When hitters did put the ball in play, their BABIP was only .280. One can assume that number will increase a bit next season. That will result in more runners on base for CV. This is not beneficial for any reliever, much less Carlos. With runners on base last season, CV allowed hitters to bat .288 with a .350 OBP. It is important to note that these statistics include his stint as a struggling starter at the beginning of the year, but the trend still remains.
In addition, Villanueva tends to struggle in high leverage situations. Using Baseball Reference's definitions of "high leverage," one sees that Carlos gives up a .296 batting average with a .370 OBP. Back that up with the fact that he gives up only a .255 BA in low leverage situations, Ken Macha may be wise to keep CV away from the ninth inning.
Despite these reservations, Carlos Villanueva seems to be a very solid candidate for the closer's role for Milwaukee. He strikes out tons of batters while not issuing too many free passes. He could work as a Trevor Hoffman-type pitcher for the Crew. Whether it is beneficial for the Crew to limit one of their most versatile arms to only one inning is still up for debate. I tend to favor CV pitching in tight situations ranging from the seventh to the ninth inning, but Milwaukee seems to shy away from those undefined roles in the bullpen.
The other arm that could thrive in the closer's role is Seth McClung. The big, redheaded fireballer certainly has the stuff to be dominant in the ninth inning. His mid-to-high 90s fastball and hard overhand curve could prove devastating to other teams. His 37 strikeouts in 41.2 innings of work out of the bullpen supports that idea. He also only allowed two home runs in his stint as a reliever, so he seems to not have the Eric Gagne syndrome where he gives up more long balls than singles.
No one can touch Seth McClung when he is throwing strikes. The problem remains that Seth is quite wild on the mound from time to time. In those same 41.2 innings out of the bullpen, he issued 26 walks. That 37/26 K/BB ratio (or 1.42 strikeouts per walk issued) is far worse than the ratio CV put together last season. If the Brewers and Ken Macha believe that Seth can harness his wildness issues a bit, he could be a prime candidate to take over Salomon Torres' job.
It is easier to see that McClung's situation is much more cut and dry than that of Villanueva's. If McClung is throwing strikes, he will almost certainly escape the inning unscathed. It simply depends on the day, as the Brewers never know if the wild McClung or the controlled McClung is going to show up any day.
There is also an issue with McClung's desire to be a starter for the Crew. He stepped in last season and tossed some quality innings when the Brewers needed him to produce after Villanueva proved to be ineffective in the rotation. It has been reported that McClung is lobbying to begin 2009 in the rotation, and he is training as such. Perhaps he does hold more value as a starting pitcher if he can stretch his arm out a bit more. That is yet to be seen.
Neither pitcher excites me too much in the closer's role. I would rather Carlos Villanueva pitch in the seventh and eighth innings to utilize his flexibility as a reliever, while Seth McClung is a little too wild for me to trust him at the end of a game. Doug Melvin may have to head outside Milwaukee to find a closer for the 2009 season. The key is finding an arm that does not cost too much money and is young enough to warrant the multi-year deal that most closers will undoubtedly demand. In the coming days, Bernie's Crew will take a look at some of the options outside the Brewers organization to fill the closer's role.