December 2008 - Posts

  • Angels ink Brian Fuentes

    Cross off another free agent arm from Milwaukee's offseason wish list.

    Brian Fuentes signed a two-year, $17.5MM deal with the Los Angeles Angels.  It also has a vesting option for 2011, based on games finished for the Halos.  

    This is what MLB Trade Rumors has to say:

    Fuentes, 33, was excellent in 2008.  He posted a 2.73 ERA and 11.78 K/9.  At the outset of the offseason he was expected to get a three or even four-year deal.

    Milwaukee will likely set their sights on Trevor Hoffman or Jason Isringhausen at this point.

  • Prospect #23: Luis Pena

    This year I be releasing my Top 25 Prospects in conjunction with the people over at Between the Green Pillars, which means the list is going to posted somewhat out of order to match up with what Ryan and Jay have for their Top 25. An up-to-date list of the Bernie's Crew Top 25 can be found at the bottom of each individual post.  There will be a new prospect posted each day both here at Bernie's Crew, and also over at Between the Green Pillars.  Each prospect overview will have thoughts from both blogs as well.  Be sure to check back daily! 

    Luis Pena

    Born: 1/10/1983
    Height: 6'5"
    Weight: 200 lbs
    Throws: R

    Luis Pena is the Derrick Turnbow of the Nashville Sounds bullpen.  He has all the stuff to be absolutely dominate.  The right-hander features a high-90s fastball and a nasty split-fingered pitch that serves as his out-pitch.  I have read that his splitter can run in the low-90s, but I have not seen that live.  Therefore, I cannot attest to that being true.

    Just like Turnbow, his strikeout rate is above-average.  His K/9 rate jumped to 8.94 last season, which cemented his role as closer for Triple-A Nashville.  He cruised along for the first portion of the 2008 season, even making the PCL All-Star team.  Once the dog days of summer rolled around, however, the wheels fell off for Luis.  The soon to be 26-year old suddenly could not locate his pitches, finishing the 2008 campaign with an astronomical 8.57 BB/9 rate.  For comparative purposes, Turnbow sported an unattractive BB/9 rate of 6.09 in 2007 with the Milwaukee Brewers.  Luis Pena walked almost two-and-a-half more batters per nine innings pitched.  No wonder his WHIP skyrocketed to 2.05 by the end of 2008.

    There are some reasons to be hopeful for Luis, however.  His BABIP was .357 last season, which suggests he was a bit unlucky on the balls hit in play.  That suggests opposing hitters will see a drop in their .280 batting average against Pena.  The problem of control still remains though.  You can be sure Luis will start the season with Nashville again in 2009.  A late-inning reliever with the stuff that Luis has will be given numerous chances to succeed.  If the right-hander can find his stellar control he showed in 2007, he could be with the Brewers as soon as June or July of the 2009 season.  There seems to be little reason to suggest that will be the case, however, as he also struggled mightily with finding the plate in 2006.  His fantastic 2007 season seems to be a bit of an anomaly thus far in his minor league career.  Because of that, I am not confident Luis will reach his quite lofty potential.  Because of that potential, however, he still finds himself in the Top 25.

    POTENTIAL: B+
    CHANCE OF REACHING POTENTIAL: C-
    PROJECTED ARRIVAL: 2009/2010
    OVERALL: C+

    Jim's Ranking: 23

     

    Between the Green Pillars

    Many a reliever with dominating stuff has been relegated to the scrap heap by his inability to locate it. As you suggest, Pena seems determined to walk that well worn path out of the game.

    One has to wonder if the departure of former Brewer Pitching Coach Mike Maddux might not be the worst thing that could have happened for Pena's career. Maddux had a history of getting wild relievers to settle down just enough to be useful for a while. Of course former Bullpen Coach Bill Castro is still around, now as pitching coach, so there is hope.

    At this point one just has to sit back and hope that someone working with Pena can find something in his delivery that is causing the inconsistent command and fix it. I don't think it would be a stunning turn of events for him to end up a useful major league reliever, but it's hard to imagine him as a dominating late-inning guy for any length of time because of his command issues. Thus, I would be inclined to knock his "potential" score down a peg or two because just how valuable can a likely middle reliever actually be?

     

    Bernie's Crew Top 25 Prospects

    #25 -- Evan Anundsen
    #24 -- Lee Haydel
    #23 -- Luis Pena

     

  • Round 'em Up New Year's Eve (12/31/08)

    Yesterday was far far too slow on baseball news for a Round 'em Up, but it didn't help that I didn't get more than fifteen minutes at my desk to get you caught up on all of your baseball news.  But today I'm back, and there's just enough links out there to make this a satisfying post.

    Major League News:

     True to form, Doug Melvin has been extremely quiet over the holiday week.  Last year he signed Eric Gagne right around this time, but other than that, Doug tends to allow free agents to do their thing over the holidays and take care of business later.  But that doesn't mean business hasn't stopped over at Miller Park.  It's good to know the city is still behind the Brewers even with CC Sabathia as Season Ticket Holders are up.  This is good news, especially if the Brewers struggle this year with such a big salary cut.  It'll save money for a sooner push down the road.

    Sadly, that's pretty much it at the main sources, but thankfully the blogosphere takes you the rest of the way.  KLS over at Brew Crew Ball has your Winter League updates for yesterday and Monday.  The Mexican League finished up yesterday and I'm sure KLS will have a review of the Brewers' player performances coming sometime next week.  Brendan Katin keeps showing he can hit the cover off the ball when he makes contact.  KLS notes that he struck out 16 times over his final nine games while walking just once, but he still finished with a .550 SLG.  If I thought Katin could do that in the majors, I'd say Corey Hart is a trade chip, but that's far too risky.

     BCB also continues their community voted prospect rankings.  So far they have Escobar, Gamel, Jeffress and Salome as their top four with Brett Lawrie getting voted to the five spot today.  I just can't vote for a kid who has no minor league experience and is only 18 years old.  Look for Lucroy to pick up the six spot, since he's not too many votes behind Lawrie right now, but I think he's above and beyond Lawrie at catcher and should seriously consider second base, where he could fly through the system.

    Speaking of prospect lists, Jim here at Bernie's Crew and Ryan over at Right Field Bleachers have continued their dueling prospect lists.  Jim suggests Lee Haydel is the #24 prospect, while Ryan chose Cody Adams.   Ryan beat Jim to the punch today and has already selected Alex Periard as his #23.  I think Alex deserves a little more credit.  He's got solid stuff, is only 21 years old and has improved every year in the minors. You have to expect a bit of a drop off when you move up a level at the end of the season, but he was starting to figure things out the more he pitched there.  And don't look too hard into his AZL numbers.  For a 21 year old pitcher, the AZL was likely used as a feel out period to work on new pitches and approaches towards hitters.

     Seamsheads has quite an interesting story about church and baseball in Milwaukee in 1898.  It's amazing to think about how far this country and everything within it has progressed over the last century.  That includes baseball.  I think I'm mostly impressed that the Sentinal has been around for more than 100 years.

    Brew Town Beat looks at the Curious Case of Ben Sheets (not Benjamin Button, which is a pretty good movie by the way).  They lay a comparison to Brad Penny, which is probably right on, but I doubt Sheets will end up regretting not taking arbitration with Milwaukee.  He's going to get a one year $12M deal somewhere.  He may even take less guaranteed money for an incentive laden deal.

    Other Baseball News:

    Remember Claudio Vargas?  Of course you do.  He was Houdini for a year in Milwaukee.  After a rough year last year with the Mets, Claudio was shut down with arm problems, but that hasn't stopped the Dodgers from signing him to a one year incentive laden deal.

    Speaking of former Brewers, Derrick Turnbow seems to have quite few suitors despite his arm troubles and mental struggles in 2008.  Just goes to show you that live arms are hard to come by, and pretty much any one who throws 95+ can get a job.

    It turns out the Reds/Taveras deal is for two years.  Oops.  Just another mistake by the Reds organization.  It looks like they'll be sending another apology letter to their fans again this year.

    Don't look now, but the Cubs are about to sign Milton Bradley.  Bradley was a beast last year in Texas, going .321/.436/.563 with 22 bombs.  The thing is, when Bradly has to play the outfield, he can barely play 100 games.  Nevertheless, he's a huge upgrade over Kosuke Fukudome.

     

    And lastly, we here at Bernie's Crew would like to wish you a safe and Happy New Year.  We'll see you tomorrow on National Hangover Day.

  • Prospect #24: Lee Haydel

    This year I be releasing my Top 25 Prospects in conjunction with the people over at Between the Green Pillars, which means the list is going to posted somewhat out of order to match up with what Ryan and Jay have for their Top 25. An up-to-date list of the Bernie's Crew Top 25 can be found at the bottom of each individual post.  There will be a new prospect posted each day both here at Bernie's Crew, and also over at Between the Green Pillars.  Each prospect overview will have thoughts from both blogs as well.  Be sure to check back daily!

    Lee Haydel

    Born: 7/15/1987
    Height: 6'0"
    Weight: 185 lbs
    Throws: L
    Bats: L

    Lee is a speedster who is still learning to play the game at the professional level.  The young center fielder has all the tools to be a successful big league leadoff hitter, but he is extremely, extremely raw.  He has the speed to steal bases (34 SB), but his instincts are still a work in progress (17 CS).  Haydel shows that he can hit with his .294 AVG, but his plate discipline is not good with 107 strikeouts and only 32 walks in 522 at-bats (only a 6% walk rate).  Is it clear yet?

    The bright side is that the 21-year old is improving.  Haydel improved in practically every offensive and defensive category from the 2007 season.  His batting average and on-base percentage improved from .276/.311 to .295/.335.  The walk rate improved from 4.7% in 2007 to 6% in 2008.  Even his defense improved, according to his fielding percentage.  In center field, Lee earned a .968 percentage in 2007, while improving to a .974 fielding percentage last season.  It seems that Haydel is beginning to figure it out.  The young man is beginning to be more patient at the plate, and he understands that he only needs to get the ball on the ground and let his speed do the work.  Over 56% of the balls he put in play were on the ground, which puts a lot of pressure on the opposing defensive infield.  He projects as a prototypical leadoff hitter, and Milwaukee is grooming him to do become that type of player. 

    To make it to the big leagues though, Lee must improve the plate discipline a bit.  That 6% walk rate must improve to about an 10-11%, especially since the young center fielder has zero power whatsoever.  In fact, Haydel has never hit a professional home run.  He must develop a threat of power, however, otherwise opposing pitchers will be able to prey upon his rather high strikeout rate.  It will be extremely intriguing to see how he performs next season with the Brevard County Manatees.  He improved in every aspect of his game in 2008.  Will he be able to repeat that trend in 2009?  Milwaukee's organization certainly hopes so.

    POTENTIAL: B-
    CHANCE OF REACHING POTENTIAL: C
    PROJECTED ARRIVAL: 2012
    OVERALL: C+

    Jim's Ranking: 24

     

    Between the Green Pillars

    I should make it clear up front that as a general rule I am suspicious of any player whose best tool is his speed. Speed is a good thing for a player to have, obviously, but when it eclipses all the other things that a player needs to do to be valuable, there is a problem. I  am inclined to severely downgrade a player who shows neither power or useful plate discipline. As you note, Haydel fits all of those criteria to a tee. His speed even comes with a warning, because being caught in 17 of 51 attempts by Class A catchers screams "not a natural baserunner" and if he's going to hang his hat on that asset, it's woefully underdeveloped.

    Haydel is a young player, but I have to admit it is difficult for me to see him improving his power or plate discipline enough to ever be all that useful at the major league level. Philosophically, I just don't see all that much value in a "hit it on the ground" leadoff man who can neither get on base or hit for any power. In other words, I don't have much use for a "prototypical leadoff hitter" on my team.

    The best use I can see for Haydel is to flip him at the trade deadline one of these days for a rental role player, the way they did with Darren Ford. Hopefully he does continue to improve this season at Brevard County and change the basic outlook of his career path.

     

    Bernie's Crew Top 25 Prospects

    #25 -- Evan Anundsen
    #24 -- Lee Haydel
  • Round 'em Up Monday (12/29/08)

     Not a very busy weekend in baseball, but at least no one will be crying, "That's my quarterback," after an entertaining Sunday of football.

    Major League News:

    McCalvey and David Fultz over at the main site have a gigantic year in review.   This is one of my favorite reviews so far because they spent a considerable amount of time linking up each story they report.  That is a considerable amount of work and gives us the opportunity to actually go back and get the full story.  Oh the wonderful days of technology.

    BCB has its weekend Winter League Wrap-up.  Jason Bourgeois continued his solid winter with a 4 for 15 weekend, but he's only got a couple more days to impress as the Mexican league finishes up on Tuesday.  Hernan Iribarren continues to improve in Venezuela, but I don't know if he'll ever amount to anything but a utility player.  If Hernan can continue his high OBP, he might be a valuable bench player for the Brewers if Bourgeois goes down.

    BCB FanShots also has the Bill James projections up.  I have no idea how any one can think Dave Bush is on the up and up.  He's just not a sub-4.00 ERA, no matter what the projections say.  Sometimes I have problems with these projections because they're never willing to go out on a limb and say a guy is going to have a bad year.  In the Brewer projections there isn't a single pitcher who is expected to have an ERA above 4.70.  Looking at those numbers, everyone is expected to improve from 2008 except for Seth McClung.

    Here at Bernie's Crew and Between the Green Pillars, Jim and Ryan have started a Top 25 Prospect series that should lead us right into Spring Training and hopefully some serious scouting from Jim and me in Appleton to see how good these assessments are.  Ryan's #25 selection is Evan Frederickson, while Jim selected Evan Anundsen.   I tend to agree with Jim a little more on this one, as Anundsen is two years younger than Frederickson, and has shown the mental capacity to pitch to his talent.  Frederickson has solid stuff and is only 22, but unless he figures out how to get ahead in the count and drop that enormous walk rate, he'll never make the bigs.

    Dugout Central thinks the Brewers wanted a case of Milwaukee's Best for Christmas to drink away the pain of a general decline.  First of all, if you're going to drink Beast, make it Beast Ice.  Increase that alcohol content so it won't take nearly as long.  But I don't think the Brewers will have to drink for long.  If Escobar, Salome and Gamel turn out to be anything, the Brewers need only spend their money on starting pitching and perhaps a centerfielder.  Those 2009 draft picks weren't hurt much either.

    Other Baseball News:

    Dugout Central says the Teixeira signing is good for baseball.   Why?  It handcuffs the Yankees for a long time with regard to their minor league system.  They've proven that you can't buy a team and win championships.  Futhermore, you can't buy a team and see them succeed down the road, that is 2008.  Farm systems have proven to be the best option for team development, and the Yankees don't seem to care.

    The Yankees arch nemesis have signed, RHP Brad Penny and C Josh Bard.  I like these low impact moves by the Red Sox, as Brad Penny is a cheap option that could provide some help in an already solid rotation.  And you can't complain about a $5M base salary for someone with his experience.  The Bard pick up is a perfect saftey signing if Varitek chooses to head elsewhere.

    Finally, remember all of those pitchers the Brewers were trying to look into?  Randy Johnson was already signed by the San Francisco Giants, and now the Mets are apparently making offers to the other three potentials, Randy Wolf, Oliver Perez and Derek Lowe.  Based on the Brewers off season and potential this season, the Mets are a much more attractive option for free agents.

More Posts Next page »

About This Blog

Bernie's Crew is a Milwaukee Brewers blog that addresses everything concerning the Brewers. It discusses major league news, minor league news, and big news around Major League Baseball as a whole. It is a community where Brewers fans can let their voice and opinions be heard. If you have any comments or questions, email me at berniescrew@gmail.com.

Recent Posts

Advertisement

Additional Sites

Syndication