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January 2009 - Posts
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Directly contradicting what I said this morning, the Tampa Bay Rays have reportedly agreed to a two-year deal with Brian Shouse. Due to the financial constraints of the Rays' budget and the difficult economic situation for most teams, I in no way thought Brian would get a two-year deal from the Rays. I am happy to be proven wrong, however, as Brian gets what he deserves. He has done nothing but produce for the past three seasons with the Milwaukee Brewers, and the veteran southpaw deserves more financial security than he had previously received from Milwaukee and Texas. The Brewers will receive a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds in compensation for Shouse's services over the past two-plus seasons. Mitch Stetter, and perhaps R.J. Swindle as well, will step into the LOOGY role for the Crew in Ken Macha's bullpen.
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Many Brewers fans and blogs alike have been asking the same question all offseason. Why are Doug Melvin and the Crew not conversing with Brian Shouse and his agent in an attempt to lock him up for the 2009 season? Tom Haudricourt checks in with some minor news. I even put in phone calls to Shouse's agents over the past couple of
days to see what was happening, but they didn't return the calls. (It's
been hard getting agents to return calls in this wacky market, perhaps
because they have nothing to report).
Now, courtesy of Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com, comes word that Tampa Bay is showing interest in signing Shouse (it's near the end of his column).
The Brewers decided to part ways with Shouse, 40, when he told them
he wanted a two-year deal in free agency. Even with his past
effectiveness, the Brewers thought two years was too much at his age.
Shouse is a Class B free agent, meaning the Brewers would get a
sandwich draft pick between the first and second rounds in June as
compensation if he signs with another club. The signing team would not
forfeit a draft pick.
Not much has circulated about Brian over the course of the winter. He originally was connected with the Colorado Rockies, but that ship seemed to have sailed when Shouse demanded a two-year deal. Perhaps the Rockies will come calling when the lefty is forced to lower his demands in the coming month. Now the Rays are reportedly interested. You can be sure that the Rays will not be overstepping a one-year deal for a veteran bullpen arm like Shouse. Their payroll may be higher after making the World Series last season, but they are still a small market team.
Brian Shouse did a tremendous job for the Milwaukee Brewers over the last two seasons. The southpaw pitched 51.1 innings in 2008 and posted a 2.81 ERA. His WHIP remained an impressive 1.17, and the 40-year old owned a decent 2.45 BB/9 rate. Most importantly for a LOOGY, he held left-handed hitters to a measly .180 average. His sidearm action is incredibly difficult for a lefty to pick up at the plate. The supposed mystery surrounding Milwaukee and their apparent apathy towards Shouse is not as confusing as it first seems.
The Milwaukee Brewers have not attempted to resign Brian Shouse to a one-year contract for two reasons. As TH said above, the veteran lefty is demanding a two-year deal. At 40-years old, that is difficult for an organization like Milwaukee's to justify. The Crew will simply let Shouse troll for his two-year deal elsewhere and collect the sandwich pick for his services.
Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, the Brewers are not concerned with the loss of Shouse because they have already found his replacement, who arguably could perform better than Shouse himself in 2009. Mitch Stetter bounced back and forth between Nashville and the big league team last season, posting a 3.20 ERA in 25.1 innings with the Crew and a 2.48 ERA with the Sounds. The 28-year old Stetter held left-handed hitters to a .158 average, even better than Shouse's impressive .180 average. Not to mention Mitch boasted a healthy 11.01 K/9 rate with the big league team last season.
The greatest strength Stetter brings to the Brewers' bullpen is the fact that he is not strictly a LOOGY. The southpaw even held right-handed hitters to a paltry .170 AVG with only one home run allowed. That average against righties should climb a bit in 2009, as Mitch was largely supported by a .206 BABIP against righties. While there is no guarantee that BABIP would rise towards the mean BABIP of approximately .300, but the statistical odds suggest it will rise. Mitch brings a lot of great things to the table. He strikesout plenty of batters, he handcuffs both right-handed and left-handed hitting, and he will be much cheaper in 2009 than will Brian Shouse. The biggest concern with Stetter, however, is his control. His career BB/9 rate has hovered around 3.00 throughout his professional career (which is certainly nothing to brag about), but it jumped to 6.75 BB/9 in 2008 in his limited duty with the big league squad. The numbers are not completely transparent, however. The vast majority of those walks came in May, when the lefty walked 8 batters in only 5.1 innings. He put it together after that month, never walking more than three batters in a single month besides his terrible May. It seems his walk rate was skewed by one bad month last season, as it hovered around the 3.5 mark otherwise. Nevertheless, his control will have to improve from his 2008 mark if he wishes to sustain any type of success with the Brewers in 2009. Forgotten about in the whole Brian Shouse and Mitch Stetter conversation is R.J. Swindle. He is known for his 82-84 MPH fastball and his 55 MPH curveball.
That's right. 55 MPH curveball. The 25-year old also has a slider he
likes to utilize against lefties. Swindle's minor league numbers suggest he has a very good chance to pitch effectively out of the 'pen for Milwaukee, if given the chance. Last season in Philadelphia's minor league system, R.J. posted a 0.54 ERA over 16.2 innings in Double-A ball. After being promoted to Triple-A midseason, the soft-tossing lefty boasted a 1.98 ERA in 36.1 innings. His stint in Triple-A also included a .383 BABIP, so Swindle even posted a 1.98 ERA while getting incredibly unlucky. His FIP was 1.41. Needless to say, that is very good. The southpaw is a control pitcher who never had a walk rate above 1.80 BB/9 until his 4.2 inning cup of coffee with the big league squad last season. Swindle also limits home runs to an enormous extent (0.25 HR/9 rate in 2008 in Triple-A) and misses more bats than the majority of power pitchers do. He K-ed 12.63 batters per nine innings in Class-AAA ball. Remember that is not a small sample size either. Swindle profiles very well as a LOOGY in Milwaukee's bullpen. He only has thrown 4.2 innings in the big leagues, so he obviously has very little experience. The big question will be whether or not Ken Macha and the Crew wish to carry two lefties in the bullpen, or simply stay content with one like they did so often last season. Swindle will be given every opportunity to make the big league squad out of Spring Training though. You can be sure of that. In conclusion, Brian Shouse is not being ignored by the Milwaukee Brewers because they believe him to be a poor pitcher. In fact, he arguably was the best and most consistent reliever out of the 'pen over the last two seasons. Brian Shouse will not be returning to Milwaukee because the Brewers already have two suitable replacements on their roster, both who will be much cheaper than Shouse. Doug Melvin also wishes to collect the sandwich draft pick in compensation for his services over the last two-plus years. We all wish you well, Brian.
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My apologies for the late post. Apparently my lunch hour was already taken up by an appointment I had forgotten. Oh well, it's here now. Enjoy!
Here at Bernie's Crew we want to continue to improve our work and be
one of the most original and reliable blogs on the internet. With that
being said, instead of going through the 2008 season, give some grades
and simply review the different sides of the game, I'm going to do a
weekly/bi-weekly series (time permitting) to review the season of each
individual player. Upon completion of each review, we should be able
to judge if this player lived up to their expectations, what should be
expected of them in the 2009 season and what they'll need to improve as
they continue to their career. In 2007 Ryan Braun burst on to the scene in a way that no one could have imagined, going .324/.370/.634 with 34 HRs and 97 RBIs in just 113 games. Unfortunately, such a stellar performance during his rookie year meant that Braun could only drop off in 2008. The hope was that this drop off would be minimal.
Braun's off season was a busy one. After a horrendous season defensively in 2007, Ryan was hell bent on quieting all the doubters in 2008, and was spending a considerable amount of time at a training facility at Pepperdine University. Then the middle of January arrived and Ryan Braun received a phone call that revealed the signing of Gold Glove winner Mike Cameron. The result was obvious. Bill Hall had been moved from third base to play center field in 2007 to open the door for Braun. When Cameron signed, Hall was on his way back to third base, and with Kevin Mench and Geoff Jenkins off to free agency, Braun was on his way to left field. It was the second time in two years the Brewers changed the position of one of their 'star' players.
But the hope was that this one would work out better than the Hall move. When Hall had moved to center, he not only struggled defensively, but completely fell off the wagon at the plate. This crushed the Brewers' hopes of a playoff run in 2007, but it would not crush the Brewers in 2008. After receiving the call, Braun quickly put on an outfielder glove and got to work. The results didn't reveal themselves right away, and there was worry after the first month that the combination of the sophomore slump and a position change was on the way. But there wasn't much need to worry. Braun hit .276/.300/.448 in the opening month of the season, with three home runs and nine doubles, but 22 Ks and just three base on balls. Thankfully, there were signs that Ryan was about to break out of his shell, and they started at the end of the month in the Brewers second series against the Chicago Cubs. In those three games he went 7 for 13 with three doubles a home run and seven RBIs. This success bled into May with a change in the lineup, where Braun crushed the ball to a line of .322/.355/.695. This included 11 home runs, seven doubles, two triples and 22 RBIs. While his K/BB ratio of 25/6 was still a little embarrassing, it became tolerable with his kind of production. It was also during this month that Ryan inked his long term contract and became the clear leader on the team. Ryan signed an eight year, $45M dollar deal on May 15th, which guaranteed his Brewerhood until the year 2015. Three days later, Ryan tried to will his team to a single victory over the reigning champs with a two home run four RBI game. Unfortunately it wasn't enough, and Ryan let his teammates know about it. He said, "I almost felt like this series we didn't expect to win. We were competing. I know everybody tried hard, but it's not about trying hard. You've got to expect to win. I almost feel like we never really expected win any of these games." This was the day that many believed that Ryan became the leader of this team. And began Ryan lead by example for the rest of May before falling apart in June. Ryan fullowed up his stelar May with a .248/.298/.486 month, with six bombs and 18 RBIs, but the 23/6 K/BB numbers continued to plague. However, what Braun couldn't do with his bat, he tried to make up for in the field and on the bases. He showed drastic improvement in the field over the first three months, and while he still took some pretty poor routes to the ball, he was strides ahead of Bill Hall from the year before. On top of that, Ryan picked up six stolen bases without being caught. And on top of that, he improved his ISOP slightly, something that would be important for him later on in the season. July more than made up for his struggles in June, as Ryan went to hit a stunning .366/.411/.752 with nine home runs, six doubles, three triples and 23 RBIs. On top of that Ryan vastly improved his K/BB ratio with 21 K's and eight walks. It was also during this month that Braun began to assert himself as a Cardinals killer. In the final two games of the Brewers four game sweep, Braun went 8 for 9 with two homeruns and a triple including a two run shot in the top of the ninth of the final game to seal up the sweep. Ryan cooled down some in August and understandably so. Braun dropped to a more than respectable up .289/.349/.592 line with five bombs and fourteen RBIs. Interestingly, he did most of that damage after straining his intercostal muscles on August 9th against the Washington Nationals. As a result Ryan managed just 76 ABs during this stretch. One can imagine it was a frustrating time for Ryan, but as a fan I was thrilled. Obviously there was no reason to be thrilled about the injury, but how Ryan changed his game to adapt to the problem was exceptional. Many players are extremely stubborn, and stick to the game they've played all their life despite their current problems. Ryan is hardly stubborn. After straining his intercostals Braun conceded to going opposite field after realizing it often hurt to try and pull the ball. Furthermore, Ryan was decidedly less aggressive at the plate taking six walks over those 76 ABs, which is a vast improvement considering the six walks he often took in early months were amidst well over 100-120 ABs. The Brewers left fielder of the future struggled mightily, as did the most of his teammates, in the month of September, largely due to his injury. But Ryan, as many expect him to always do now, found ways to be productive. He hit just .208 in the final month of the season, but he took 12 walks in his final 101 ABs and reduced his K's all the way down to 18, somewhat saving his .356 slugging percentage. On top of that, Ryan added three stolen bases and 14 runs with an on fire Prince Fielder behind him. Ryan finished his year on some what of a statistical high note by going 5 for 16 in the playoffs, but I'm sure he would have rather had another 30 ABs. Ryan's final line looks like this: .285/.335/.553, 37 HRs, 106 RBIs, 129 Ks, 42 BBs, 14 SBs and 4 CSs. One can only imagine how much better this line could have ended up being if Ryan hadn't been injured. While this injury only lasted a little over a month, Ryan's home run and RBI production were likely hit. What's most promising about Ryan's year is not necessarily in the numbers, but rather progression of those numbers throughout the season. Ryan did a better job than probably any one of adapting to the way pitchers were pitching to him. In the end, he ultimately realized that pitchers weren't giving him great pitches to hit. While he would love to get a hit every time out there, he soon realized that he could rely on his teammates to get him home if he chooses to get on base. Meeting Expectations: To say that Ryan's 'fall' in batting line is a sign of not living up to expectations is obviously not even a consideration. Ryan led every regular in batting average, slugging percentage, home runs and RBIs. There is nothing to whine about there. Did Ryan exceed expectations? If anything, Ryan met expectations, but he did not exceed them. Exceeding them would have put him at an average above .300 in my world with over 50 HRs in a sophomore season where scouting reports on him are officially out. No need to fret though. Those years are on their way. Predictions: At only 25 years old, Ryan is clearly the main stay and icon of the Brewers for the future, and likely hasn't even tapped most of his potential. What's most exciting is that Braun's sophomore slump came with improvement in all aspects of the game. Those aspects included plate discipline, readjustment to new pitching strategies, adjusting to injury and finally defense. Though Ryan's bat would have given him higher value at third base, the improved defense and quality offensive numbers puts him almost as high on the list for left fielders. So what will Ryan do in 2009? All signs point upward. The few months Ryan excelled fell upon rough months of injury and difficulty adjusting. Expect those difficulties to be behind Braun, and those months of excellence to be even more impressive. I'm on board with almost every projection out there and am going with a .303/.363/.580 with at least forty bombs, provided all those health issues. As for the field, look for Braun to be a little more aggressive. While I don't expect his routes to the ball to be much better, his first step will improve significantly, making the Brewers outfield defense to be one of the best in the NL. Lastly, look for Braun to be a little more aggressive on the bases, especially if Corey Hart bounces back from a rough second half. Macha likes to move his guys around and with Braun's 78% SB success rate, don't be surprised to see him on his horse.
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Jim's got a big test coming up, so he's MIA today, but that didn't stop him from getting in his #4 prospect for the day. That man is a machine. Also, make sure you check out the new contest.
Major League News: It's been a fairly quiet couple of days on the blogosphere and in the world of the Brewers. Pretty much the only thing that's worth noting is that the Brewers are, for the 17th time, not connected and uninterested in their former ace, Ben Sheets. And let's be honest here, while the Brewers would love to be interested in Benny, Jim's run down of the Crew's payroll makes it pretty obvious that they can't afford to offer a multi-year, double digit per contract. With that being said, the Brewers are apparently open to signing a reclamation project like Mark Mulder. Rosenthal says Melvin's just lukewarm on Mulder, but not on any one else, which doesn't make much sense to me. Worst case scenario, you throw Jennings or Zambrano to the minors to work with your younger pitchers for cheap. What is interesting, though, is Rosenthal gives a little cred to Seth McClung. Mark Attanasio is still out talking about getting a salary cap. I suppose this time he was kind of goaded into it by Sporting News though. Attanasio really lays out his reasoning, which is essentially competitive balance. He seems pretty genuine about it not being the money, but you never know. The comments are particularly harsh and naive, but worth a read. In minor league news the Brewers reported seven one year deals with Mitch Stetter, Angel Salome, Alcides Escobar, Tim Dillard, Mat Gamel, Casey McGehee and Brad Nelson. This is obviously news worth reporting, but seeing as the team owns full rights to these guys for the first three years of their big league careers, these type of signings are somewhat of a formality. They're not making big bucks in the minors anyways. Other Baseball News: It's a little busier outside of the Brewers organization. In probably one of the more interesting articles I've read this offseason, it appears the Yankees cannot sign any more Type A or B free agents this off season based on a quota system from the Collective Bargaining Agreement. The rule basically states that the number of Type A or B signings a team can have is based solely on the number of Type A or B free agents. So basically no Ben Sheets or Manny Ramirez to the Yankees. But that won't stop them from signing the best three Type A free agents each year. Haudricourt says the report is wrong based on comments from Brian Cashman. I don't think any one knows what's going on now, especially because the source in the original article is from an MLB official familiar with the agreement.
Jack Z keeps making moves left and right. This time he's moved Aaron Heilman for the Cubs' Ronny Cedeno and recently acquired Garret Olson. And with this move, the fans have apparently already given up on the 2009 season. It's not time to go that far yet, but the Cubs have been pretty putrid this off season. Sure they signed Milton Bradley, but he's a big risk if he actually has to run in the outfield. They moved Mark DeRosa, who was fantastic at the plate and versatile in the field for them, and replaced him for a weak Aaron Miles. They even gave up Felix Pie for almost nothing. Every move the rest of the way down is pretty menial. And they say the Brewers had a bad off season.
The A's and Russ Springer have come to terms with a $3.3M plus incentives deal. Springer had a great year last year in the NL, but with pretty rough peripherals, will that project to the AL? They say Billy Beane is supposed to be smarter than that. Also in that MLBTR post, the A's are apparently going after Orlando Cabrera. No one really wants to lose their first round pick for the O-Dog, but somebody will eventually sacrifice it. Juan Uribe got himself a minor league contract with the Giants worth about $1M, and are still looking into Joe Crede. Any one else from the White Sox on their plate? On top of that, how do you even consider picking up a guy who hit .247/.296/.386 last season? Brutal. The big signing this week was the D'Backs pick up of Jon Garland. Dave Cameron from FanGraphs asks why? Considering the offer they made to Randy Johnson and then to Garland, the D'Backs don't make much sense and I've officially dubbed them incompetent this season. This article just alienates the crap out of them and makes outstanding points across the board. Dave nails it.
Lastly, the Pirates made news that's not about Eric Hinske, after agreeing to a three year contract with an option for the a fourth year with Paul Maholm. Maholm shows flashes of brilliance quite often, but was a disappointment in 2007 before bouncing back to have a solid season in 2008, so this is a great deal for the Pirates, who are probably getting a discount after buying out his three years of arbitration. Lastly, keep an eye out today. I wrote Braun's season review like a month ago and never published it. I'll do a quick proofread during my lunch hour and get it up for you then.
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This year I be releasing my Top 25 Prospects in
conjunction with the people over at Between the Green Pillars, which means the list
is going to posted somewhat out of order to match up with what Ryan and Jay have for their Top 25. An up-to-date list of the Bernie's Crew
Top 25 can
be found at the bottom of each individual post. There will be a new
prospect posted each day both here at Bernie's Crew, and also over at
Between the Green Pillars. Each prospect overview will have thoughts
from both blogs as well. Be sure to check back daily!
Angel Salome
Born: 6/8/1986
Height: 5'7"
Weight: 195 lbs
Throws: R
Bats: R
When
ranking prospects, it almost always boils down to tools and
production. Some scouts prefer to tools to production, while some
value a prospect's production a bit more than his tools as a player. I
tend to synthesize the two together, but I almost always lean towards
production when push comes to shove. A prospect can have all the tools
in the world, but they quickly fall by the wayside if they cannot put
them together (Derrick Turnbow, Brent Brewer?). That has been my
approach when evaluating Milwaukee's three Top 10 catchers. Jonathan
Lucroy perhaps has the best overall (offensive and defensive)
production of the three prospects, but Lucroy's raw tools and potential
are limited compared to Lawrie and Salome. While Brett Lawrie clearly
has the most impressive tools of the bunch, he has not played an inning
of professional ball. I did take into consideration his performance
against the Dominican League teams, which is why he ranked higher than
Lucroy.
Angel Salome, on the other hand, trumps both Lawrie and Lucroy because
he successfully combines high production with the impressive raw
tools. After sitting the first few weeks of the season out due to a
suspension for performance inhancing substances -- which Salome claims
was a one-time thing to help rehab a broken ankle -- the 22-year old
backstop hit a scorching .360/.415/.559 for the loaded Huntsville Stars
lineup in Double-A ball. His ISO power came in at a very impressive
.199 for a catcher, due to his 13 home runs, 30 doubles, and 3
triples. He even had relatively equal splits against right-handers and
southpaws, posting an OPS over .950 against both sides.
To say that Angel's bat profiles well behind the plate is an
understatement. Milwaukee has not had a homegrown catcher make it to
the big leagues in quite some time, so Brewers fans are quite hopeful
that Angel can succeed in Nashville this upcoming season and translate
that success to the big leagues in 2010. He obviously brings a power
bat that can drive the ball out of the ballpark to all fields, but his
plate discipline appears to be improving a bit as well. His walk rate
will not overwhelm anyone at 8.3%, but that is up significantly from
his horrid 4.4% walk rate in 2007 with Brevard County. Unlike many
power hitters in Milwaukee's minor league system, however, Angel does
not whiff too often. His strikeout rate was a respectable 15.5% last
season for the Stars. I am a bit concerned this number will jump a bit
in 2009, as the young man steps up to the plate swinging. Walks nor
strikeouts are too common, so it is clear Angel wants to put the ball
in play. He is largely able to put the barrel of the bat on the ball
in Double-A, but that may not translate well up the ranks. Angel will
need to show more patience and wait for his pitch a bit more in
Nashville if he wishes to be successful.
Despite the at-bat above only resulting in a walk, there are a couple
of important aspects of Angel's game that can be addressed. The first
is obviously his horrendous stance at the plate. His front foot is way
in the bucket, opening himself to the pitcher and presumably making it
difficult to reach the outside part of the plate. The second is
Angel's wild-looking swing. He almost appears to be flailing at the
ball a bit. There is absolutely nothing asthetically pleasing about
the young catcher's swing, yet Don Money repeatedly said he was not
about to fix something that is not broken. Despite doing it his own
unique way and eschewing the fundamentals, Angel still hit .360 last
season with 13 home runs. Something is working. That something would
be the way he loads his back foot and the impressive extension Angel is
able to get, even on inside pitches. Let the young man stick with what
has gotten him this far.
Angel has plus-power for a catcher and a burgeoning eye at the plate,
or so the numbers suggest, but experience tracking the Brewers minor
league system leaves you anxious about the defense discussion. As it
should. The 22-year old has all the tools to be a fine defensive
catcher. He has an absolute cannon for an arm and quick reflexes
behind the plate, but it is still a work in progress. His footwork is
still off, leading to poor and late throws to second base. This is
evidenced by the 31 out of 121 potential base stealers Angel gunned
down last season. He also had 13 passed balls over the course of the
season. There have been some reports that he handles the pitching
staffs rather well, but I have nothing to corroborate those claims
with. They very well could be true, but Angel could also be a
below-average game-caller behind the plate.
What it boils down to is that it is unclear whether or not Angel will
be able to improve his defense enough as a catcher to play passable
defense in the bigs. Many scouts believe he must improve, as he does
not profile well at any other position. His 5'7" frame is
inconsequential behind the dish, but his range becomes an issue at
first base. Salome could obviously play DH for an American League
team, but his bat would be nothing special there -- nor would it be at
first base. It is catcher or bust for Angel Salome.
I believe Angel should be able to develop into an average catcher
behind the plate. It may take a couple seasons, however. It is
important to remember that Angel will only be turning 23-years old this
season. He has time on his side. His rocket-arm and athleticism for
his body build (which is ripped, by the way) are too promising to
simply ignore. Do not expect his batting average to hover in the .350s
again this season, however, as his BABIP was an astounding .401. That
suggests a significant luck regression is in store in 2009. Even if it
affects his AVG by 50-points, though, the young man will still hit
.310. The stance and swing may be ugly, but the bat is for real. His
value will directly depend on his defensive development next season and
the maturation of his plate discipline. The walk rate is borderline
playable, but must increase a bit for Milwaukee to truly consider
starting Angel behind the dish without above-average defense. If he
impresses again in 2009, Jason Kendall will be hearing loud footsteps
coming from Nashville. I suspect that Angel will play in Nashville
almost exclusively this season, however. His defense is too shaky to
trust in the bigs right now. I am excited to see the bat in Milwaukee,
however.
PROJECTED ARRIVAL: 2010
OVERALL: B+
Jim's Ranking: 4
Bernie's Crew Top 25 Prospects
#25 -- Evan Anundsen#24 -- Lee Haydel#23 -- Luis Pena#22 -- Wily Peralta#21 -- Tim Dillard#20 -- Brent Brewer #19 -- Efrain Nieves#18 -- Erik Komatsu#17 -- Alexandre Periard#16 -- Brad Nelson#15 -- Zach Braddock #14 -- Omar Aguilar
#13 -- Cody Scarpetta #12 -- Cole Gillespie#11 -- Jake Odorizzi#10 -- Cutter Dykstra#9 -- Caleb Gindl#8 -- Taylor Green#7 -- Jonathan Lucroy#6 -- Lorenzo Cain#5 -- Brett Lawrie#4 -- Angel Salome
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