Up in Appleton, we had a pretty bad ice storm a few days ago. All the sidewalks, parking lots, stairways, etc. is all covered in about an eighth of an inch of ice. Now it's snowing. Good. Snow + ice usually works out swimmingly for those walking to class...
Major League News
Tom Haudricourt writes that the Brewers will have to battle geography to land Trevor Hoffman this winter. The all-time saves leader has three boys and his family lives on the West Coast. The Dodgers are the other team in the bidding. While the Brewers may have a leg up on the Dodgers because Trevor would automatically assume the closer's role, the Dodgers have a distinct advantage because of their geographic location.
L.A. has reportedly made a one-year offer with a second-year option. The contract offer apparently exceeds $4MM in 2009. It is unclear whether the Brewers have officially made an offer, but Doug Melvin almost certainly lock him up by guaranteeing a two-year deal. A vesting option would even put the Crew ahead of the Dodgers financially. Doug Melvin has put Hoffman in contact with Ken Macha to talk baseball, so one would imagine the Brewers have at least seriously discussed numbers with Hoffman's agent, Rick Thurman. If I had to guess, I would say Doug Melvin will try something close to a two-year deal worth $11-12MM. I suspect we will hear more today.
Right Field Bleachers would love to see Hoffman closing out games in Miller Park next season. They note that his road ERA and WHIP have not been too much higher than his numbers in PETCO, and he actually performed better on the road in 2008 than he did at home. The concern is not whether or not he can pitch effectively away from PETCO, it is whether or not he can pitch effectively at all any more. I have heard multiple comparisons to Eric Gagne, and they are frankly ridiculous. Have people actually looked at the statistics? Hoffman had a 9.13 K/9 rate and a 1.79 BB/9 rate. His ERA inflated to 3.77 and his FIP to 3.99 because his HR/9 skyrocketed from 0.31 HR/9 in 2007 to 1.59 HR/9 last season. One would have to imagine his home run rate would regress to his career average of 0.82 HR/9. In case you are concerned that Trevor is losing his stuff as he gets older, his fastball was, on average, 1 MPH faster than it was in 2007, clocking in at 86 MPH. That is 1.4 MPH faster than it was in 2006. Trevor Hoffman could be very effective in the closer's role for the Milwaukee Brewers next season. He is a bit of a fly-ball pitcher with a 0.83 GB/FB ratio last season, but his line drive percentage is a very solid 13.8%. He gets opposing hitters out in front of his change-up and causes a massive amount of pop-ups. If the right-hander can limit his home runs more next season (the statistics suggest he will), I would expect Trevor to post no higher than a 3.10 ERA in 2009. I would take that.
For the past couple of days, I have been hearing about all the teams keeping tabs on Chad Cordero, but the Brewers had not been mentioned once. It made no sense, as Chad could provide a team with a high-reward if they are willing to let him rehab for the first couple months of the season. Adam McCalvy, however, is reporting that Milwaukee will be watching Cordero throw for team scouts on Wednesday and Friday of this week. Teams will be looking for velocity, as it supposedly dropped over 10 MPH after his injury last season. At the same time, it would be foolish not to check in with the right-hander. When healthy, he throws the ball quite well.
Have you ever wondered how good the Brewers pitching staff was at getting opposing hitters to chase balls outside the strike zone? The Detroit Tigers Weblog has multiple charts that show Milwaukee got batters to swing at balls out of the zone, and they were fairly lucky in the balls that were put in play on balls outside the strike zone (which has the awesome acronym of BPFPIP). Check it out if you have the time to sort through multiple colors and a whole lot of numbers.
What is the worst thing that could happen this offseason for the Brewers? I suppose there are a plethora of bad scenarios, but one of the worst possible events would be Ben Sheets signing with the New York Yankees. The Crew would only get a fourth-round pick from the Pinstripes in compensation for their loss. Lame. Why am I mentioning this? Andy Pettitte rejected NY's $10MM offer, so the Yankees are back in the market for another pitcher. Please no...
This does not directly concern the Milwaukee Brewers, but I wanted to link to R.J. Anderson's article on how average players are not bad players. This is one aspect of the game that I feel a lot of baseball fans do not understand. Even players like Gabe Gross are worth two WAR (Wins Above Replacement), which is obviously more beneficial than someone like Tony Gwynn Jr. roaming the outfield. Fans need to understand that players like Braden Looper or Randy Wolf may not be superstars, but that does not mean they are not valuable to a team. Even Jeff Suppan is valuable to the Brewers. He is an above-average fifth starter. It is his contract that is the problem. Average does not equal bad.
Minor League News
The Winter League Update is up at Brew Crew Ball. Jason Bourgeois continues to mash the ball in Mexico, going 2-for-4 with a single and a double. That is two home runs and a double in the last three days if you're keeping score at home. Who said Jason does not have any power?
Jonathan Lucroy received an invitation to Spring Training for the Brewers. Congratulations, Jonathan. It is an indication of how the organization feels about his skills. His defensive and game-calling skills should improve working with the likes of Jason Kendall and Mike Rivera this spring. It will be interesting to see how much he plays.
The Community Prospect Rankings are still happening over at Brew Crew Ball. I was surprised to see Jake Odorizzi run away with the voting for #9. The kid has nice tools, but was rather unimpressive in his big league debut.
Rob Wooten, the right-handed reliever who finished 2008 with West Virginia last season, returned to his hometown to be inundated with praise and accolades. It ended up being "Rob Wooten Day" in his hometown of Fremont. (Thanks to BC reader, Paul, for the email.)
Other Baseball News
The Goat Riders of the Apocalypse is not the biggest fan of the Milton Bradley deal for the Chicago Cubs. In fact, they go on to suggest ten better uses of $10MM. Signing Bobby Abreu, Adam Dunn, Orlando Hudson, or Derek Lowe check in on the list. That is a bit harsh, in my opinion. If healthy, Bradley will play much better defense than Abreu or Dunn, while still posting a very good OBP. The problem is that Bradley rarely stays healthy.
How about some New York Mets rumors? They are reportedly heavily pursuing Tim Redding and Randy Wolf, having already made a contract offer to Redding. The Metropolitans are also looking at Oliver Perez and Derek Lowe. New York is seeking to monopolize the starting pitching market this offseason. The team will not be signing Orlando Hudson, however, as the awful Luis Castillo contract all but prohibits that. No one wants Castillo for $18MM over the next three seasons.
There have been some other signings in the past day as well.
The Cleveland Indians inked the oft-injured Carl Pavano to a one-year, $1.5MM deal that could be worth up to $6.8MM due to performance-based incentives. That is exactly the kind of contract Pavano deserved. He will get paid exactly as much as he brings to the Cleveland Indians. If he pitches well, he will make more money. If he sucks, the Indians only invested $1.5MM in the right-hander.
The Brewer killer, Jerry Hairston Jr., resigned with the Cincinnati Reds for $2MM over one year. The deal could reach $4MM with incentives. Hairston looks to be the starting shortstop for the Reds next season. That is a bit odd, however, as the utility man is not very experienced playing short. We will see how that works out.
Remember Randy Choate? He toiled away in Nashville for the Brewers last season. He is now in the Tampa Bay organization after signing a minor league deal.
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