Brewers sign Trevor Hoffman

[UPDATE 2:45pm]

While I was in class today, Tom Haudricourt learned that the Hoffman deal does not have a 2010 option.  Interesting.  It sounds as if Hoffman preferred a one-year contract with Milwaukee.  That contradicts earlier reports of Trevor demanding a two-year deal.

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It has finally happened.

The Brewers have made a significant move.

Doug Melvin inked the all-time saves leader, Trevor Hoffman, to a one-year deal worth $6MM -- with up to $1.5MM in incentives.  The contract also includes a club option for 2010.  The financial details for the option are unclear, however.

Hoffman was 30 for 34 in save opportunities last season, posting a 3.77 ERA in 45.1 innings.  The change-up specialist still has the strikeout pitch working.  He logged an outstanding 9.13 K/9 rate, while only giving out a free pass to 1.79 hitters per nine innings.  Those peripheral numbers suggest Trevor will be much more dominate in 2009 than he was in 2008, but his rather high 1.59 HR/9 rate must come down to be successful in Milwaukee. 

The Brewers moved to solidify the back-end of their bullpen, likely moving Carlos Villanueva to the set up role.  This could signal a move for Seth McClung to the starting rotation, even though I believe he is much better suited to pitch from the bullpen.  If Doug Melvin does not sign another starting pitcher, however, McClung is likely to be the fifth man in Milwaukee's rotation.  More on that in the coming days.

Dave Cameron from FanGraphs, for one, does not see the Hoffman signing working out too well for the Crew.  He sees Miller Park compounding his home run tendencies and only being a +1 run pitcher next season.  According to Cameron (who does fantastic work, by the way), Milwaukee will be in the market for a free agent closer again next winter.

I am not sure I completely agree with that sentiment.  While Hoffman's home run rate was high in 2008, one season hardly classifies as a trend.  In 2007, his HR/9 rate was 0.31, which obviously includes games away from Petco Park.  I think it would be unwise to count on Hoffman for 40 saves and a 2.50 ERA, but it is not difficult to imagine Trevor posting a 3.15 ERA with about 30 saves for the Brewers.  Still, it is a bit disconcerting to see the CHONE projections predict a 4.17 ERA in a neutral park, as the CHONE projections are perhaps the best in baseball.

With that said, Doug Melvin has made a good baseball move to sure up the back-end of Milwaukee's bullpen.  Even if Hoffman is only a +1 run pitcher for the Crew next season, he still would deserve a $5MM contract (according to FanGraph's alogorithm of $5MM per win).  It is likely that the right-hander will produce better than that as well.  Good move for the Brewers, in my opinion.  Trevor will not be a superstar for Milwaukee, but he should be a solid closer throughout the season.

Now it is time to move on and address the starting rotation.

Comments

 

CrEw4LiFe said:

I am finally satisfied with a Brewers move. I have wanted us to sign Hoffman from the get go. Great move for the Crew. Can't wait to hear some "Hells Bells" ringin through miller park. :D

January 8, 2009 12:14 PM
 

Rod B said:

Why not, there's no other one out there.  Sure looks good when you compare it to the Gagne 10M for 1 year.

January 8, 2009 12:34 PM

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Bernie's Crew is a Milwaukee Brewers blog that addresses everything concerning the Brewers. It discusses major league news, minor league news, and big news around Major League Baseball as a whole. It is a community where Brewers fans can let their voice and opinions be heard. If you have any comments or questions, email me at berniescrew@gmail.com.

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