Using the ever-popular and quite effective CHONE Projections, I sought to evaluate the Brewers starting rotation as it now stands for the 2009 season.

Many Brewers fans have been very concerned about the ineffectiveness and the lack of depth in the starting rotation.  The loss of CC Sabathia and presumably Ben Sheets creates quite a void at the top of the rotation, and although Yovani Gallardo should be back and 100% healthy, those are two arms that will be almost impossible to replace.  It is important to note that Benny could find his way into a Brewers uniform again next season, but Doug Melvin does not seem to be too concerned about reacquiring the right-hander.  ESPN has suggested teams are more concerned about his right shoulder than his elbow, but that remains to be seen.  Owners and GMs have not said anything publicly about Sheets' health, not even Doug Melvin.

Assuming Seth McClung would slide into fifth spot in the rotation, this is how the Brewers starting rotation would look on Opening Day.  (Note: ~2.0 WAR is an average big league starter)

Yovani Gallardo -- 108 IP, 3.50 ERA, 40 BB, 112 K -- 2.2 WAR, $10.1MM
Manny Parra -- 124 IP, 4.21 ERA, 53 BB, 105 K -- 1.5 WAR, $7MM
Dave Bush -- 180 IP, 4.30 ERA, 45 BB, 120 K -- 2.2 WAR, $10.1MM
Jeff Suppan -- 161 IP, 5.31 ERA, 62 BB, 86 K -- 0.6 WAR, $3MM
Seth McClung -- 68 IP, 3.97 ERA, 35 BB, 68 K -- 0.4 WAR, $2.2MM

Chris Capuano -- 121 IP, 4.17 ERA, 36 BB, 95 K -- 1.7 WAR, $7.9MM

These numbers indicate that Milwaukee will only have two above-average starters in 2009, and even then, Gallardo and Bush will not be close to "elite" status.  Jeff Suppan's projections are especially concerning.  His statistics have been trending downward the past couple seasons, but a 5.31 ERA would land him either in the bullpen or Nashville.  The only reason his worth works out to $3MM is because he is still projected to throw a fair amount of innings.

That brings me to a main criticism of the CHONE projections.  The inning totals seem to be incredibly low for almost every pitcher.  If Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra are healthy throughout the 2009 season, their inning totals will be approaching the 160-180 IP range, rather than 100-120 range.  A couple things can be gleaned from this fact.  Gallardo and Parra will (and should) be even more valuable if they throw more innings than CHONE projects.  I would like to believe Gallardo is almost a lock to go more than 100 innings in 2009.  Parra is a little scarier because of his shoulder history, but Milwaukee will likely watch him closely early in the season.  Secondly, the WAR and projected value of each pitcher are on the severe low side because of the lack of innings.  If Yo, Manny, and Bush can all throw 160+ innings, Milwaukee should have three above-average pitchers at the top of their rotation.  Gallardo could even catapult himself into the "elite" status, if he can stay healthy (knock on wood).

A couple of surprises jump out at me.  The first is Seth McClung.  His inning total is extremely low because CHONE has Seth as a reliever for the Brewers in 2009.  This hinders the usefulness of the projections a bit, as almost everyone should know that Seth is likely to have a higher ERA if given the #5 starting job.  I am not suggesting his ERA will jump to 5.00, but something around a 4.40 ERA over 130 innings or so would probably be more accurate.

The other huge surprise is the bullish projection of Chris Capuano.  I know he is a rehab and workout freak, but even then, I am not sure he could rehab, spend a couple weeks in the minors, and still give the Brewers 121 innings.  That is a pretty large stretch, in my opinion.  With that said, however, Brewers fans would gladly take a 4.17 ERA from Cappy.  He could easily slide into the #4 slot and give Milwaukee some extremely solid innings.  This would also allow Milwaukee to slide Seth McClung back into the bullpen, unless Jeff Suppan is posting his stellar 5.31 projected ERA.  In that case, Soup should be booted from the starting rotation.  This is all extremely theoretical, obviously, and Brewers fans should be happy with simply seeing Chris Capuano in a Brewers uniform next season.  It would be foolish to bank on anything from Cappy in 2009.  Anything from him is just icing on the cake.

How does the Brewers' starting rotation compare to others in the major leagues?  Here is St. Louis' rotation, according to CHONE. 

Adam Wainwright -- 124 IP, 3.77 ERA, 36 BB, 85 K -- 2.1 WAR, $9.6MM
Kyle Lohse -- 170 IP, 4.29 ERA, 48 BB, 106 K -- 1.8 WAR, $8.3MM
Chris Carpenter -- 85 IP, 3.71 ERA, 24 BB, 61 K -- 1.4 WAR, $6.6MM
Todd Wellemeyer -- 117 IP, 4.38 ERA, 45 BB, 82 K -- 1.1 WAR, $5.2MM
Joel Pineiro -- 131 IP, 4.74 ERA, 36 BB, 74 K -- 0.9 WAR, $4.4MM

In the early projections of the 2009 season, St. Louis is predicted to finish a game or two above the Brewers in second place, yet their rotation is not clearly superior to Milwaukee's in any distinct fashion.  The Cards certainly have more depth at the back-end of the rotation with Wellemeyer and Pineiro compared to Suppan and McClung, but there is little guarantee that Carpenter will even reach 85 innings in 2009.  Even Adam Wainwright and Kyle Lohse fall below the projections of Yovani Gallardo and Dave Bush.  If Chris Carpenter and Manny Parra can both log more innings than projected, they will be about even.  Again, there is no distinct advantage St. Louis' rotation has over Milwaukee's.  Both are average Major League rotations.

Still, it would be foolish to suggest Doug Melvin should not add to the rotation.  If there is one injury, Milwaukee will have to rely on the likes of Sam Narron or Chris Narveson if Cappy cannot recover.  Carlos Villanueva is certainly an option, but the organization has shown a real commitment to keeping him in the bullpen in 2009.  He will only be plugged in the rotation in a desperate situation, in my opinion.  This means Melvin must at least add to the back-end of the rotation, even if for no other reason than depth.  In an ideal world, McClung could be relegated to the bullpen and Jeff Suppan could man the #5 spot in the rotation. 

What are some options?

Derek Lowe -- 171 IP, 3.74 ERA, 45 BB, 106 K -- 3.4 WAR, $15.4MM
Ben Sheets -- 148 IP, 3.83 ERA, 36 BB, 109 K -- 2.9 WAR, $13.2MM
Randy Wolf -- 122 IP, 4.72 ERA, 50 BB, 94 K -- 1.2 WAR, $5.7MM
Odalis Perez -- 134 IP, 4.84 ERA, 46 BB, 84 K -- 1.1 WAR, $5.2MM
Jon Garland -- 189 IP, 4.71 ERA, 53 BB, 96 K -- 1.8 WAR, $8.3MM
Braden Looper -- 130 IP, 4.85 ERA, 36 BB, 66 K -- 1.1 WAR, $5.2MM
Bartolo Colon -- 62 IP, 4.50 ERA, 18 BB, 41 K -- 0.8 WAR, $3.9MM

Any of these pitchers would superficially be an upgrade over Jeff Suppan and Seth McClung according to the CHONE projections, but how viable are these options?  Doug Melvin has already told Brewers fans to not expect a big-money signing to augment the rotation, so that would rule out Derek Lowe.  He is clearly the best option of the bunch, but his price tag is too rich for Milwaukee, at least according to the organization.  The money constraints would seem to discount both Randy Wolf and Jon Garland unless their prices come down dramatically.  Neither pitcher is going to impress anyone on the mound, but they will eat up innings.  Ultimately, I would much rather have McClung pitch every fifth day than Garland.

Ben Sheets is the mystery of the bunch.  Doug Melvin recently said Milwaukee could make an exception to the "no big-money pitcher" rule and sign Sheets if the market allows.  No one has been saying much about Benny this offseason.  The Rangers and Yankees were rumored to be courting the right-hander, but contract terms never surfaced.  No one can be sure what the market is for Sheets.  Could he be had for two-years, $20MM?  Logic says no, but the conservative market suggests it could be a possiblity in a few more weeks.  The real wild card is his shoulder.  How bad is it?  Is it bad enough that the Yankees would guarantee three more years and about $50MM more to A.J. Burnett (who is also an injury risk)?  The GMs are collectively quiet on this front.  Milwaukee's rotation would get significantly better with Benny on the mound for about 180 innings.  It is certainly something Doug should look into, but the MRI and medical reports could sway Milwaukee to go a different route.  Perhaps it already has.

This leaves a plethora of +1 run pitchers, like Odalis Perez, Bartolo Colon, and Braden Looper.  All have their pluses and minus.  Perez and Looper should put up around 160 innings, but neither have impressive stuff.  Looper will command much more money than someone like Odalis Perez, so that is certainly a negative against Looper.  The former Cardinal has been connected to Milwaukee for numerous weeks, but Doug Melvin did say he does not expect Looper to be in Milwaukee next season.  That could merely be posturing, however.  Odalis Perez, on the other hand, is simply searching for a job.  The former National could likely be had for under $1MM -- perhaps even the league minimum.  The left-hander could be worth a shot for that price, especially if Melvin and the Brewers believe he can repeat his 3.71 ERA he posted in the first half of 2008.

Bartolo Colon is a wild card.  He is a large injury risk, but the former Cy Young winner threw the ball pretty well last season for the Boston Red Sox in limited innings.  He had a 3.92 ERA in 39 innings.  Again, Doug Melvin and the Brewers organization must believe he can pitch effectively for an entire season, but Colon may not be a bad pick-up.  The Crew may even be able to land him with a minor league deal with guaranteed money if he makes the big league team out of Spring Training.  For a ballclub desperate for depth, however, an injury risk may not be a wise direction for Melvin to go.  That is why he gets paid the big bucks.

Overall, it is clear that Milwaukee must make some type of move to bolster the starting rotation for 2009.  Even if Melvin is content with sending Yovani Gallardo, Manny Parra, Dave Bush, Jeff Suppan, and Seth McClung out there for the start of the season, the organization desperately needs depth.  If one pitcher goes down, Milwaukee will be relying on the uncertain Chris Capuano or one of a plethora of uninspiring arms at the Triple-A level -- highlighted by Sam Narron and Chris Narveson.  No Brewer fan should be comfortable with that depth.  Based on the CHONE projections, it seems that Odalis Perez and/or Bartolo Colon could be solid, low-cost signings that could greatly improve the starting rotation depth.  Perez would make more sense if Melvin is simply looking for innings, while Colon presents more of an upside.  One move that no one is talking about is a mid-season addition of a pitcher like Curt Schilling, but that only makes sense (or could be possible) if the Brewers are in contention near the midseason point.  Otherwise, a couple other options would be Justin Germano, Orlando Hernandez, and Mark Redman.  Yes, the list gets bleak rather quickly.

If Melvin does not prefer any of the options listed above, there is always the trade market.  You can be sure that Milwaukee's GM is fielding and making phone calls daily, in an attempt to improve the team for next season.  Doug has shown the ability to stay patient, and I greatly appreciate that character trait.  He should not be in a rush to make a move, unless the market necessitates it -- and this market has not benefited the impulsive shopper.  If you do not believe me, ask the St. Louis Cardinals or Philadelphia Phillies how they feel about their Kyle Lohse or Raul Ibanez signings.  They almost certainly could have had them for less later in the offseason.

I am fully confident that Doug Melvin will address the starting pitching depth issue as the month progresses, but it will not be a big-name acquisition.  The organization has said that the current budget does not allow for a major signing at this point, so Brewers fans will have to be satisfied with someone like an Odalis Perez.  That is, unless Doug wishes to improve the club via trade.  That then opens a whole plethora of options, few of which would improve the team without leaving a gaping hole in the current roster.

My advice?  Be patient.  The moves will come.  And they could very well be much more effective than many believe.