First off, Kendall's salary vested at 5M for 2009, but that's not all that material.

The issue is, when the teams sign the players and calculate their payroll, they have to assume that all players given performance incentives will reach them, otherwise they could end up with a lot of money owed that was not budgeted for.

Using the same players you used for the 25 man roster, I get 76.6745 in base salary, plus 5.85 in performance incentives (it's probably higher than that, truth be told), for around 82.5M in total salary, right in the middle of what MA & DM are claiming it to be.

C – Jason Kendall – $4.6MM

C – Mike Rivera – $400K

1B – Prince Fielder – $670K+ ($7MM)($7.5MM

2B – Rickie Weeks – $1.057MM+ ($2MM)

SS – J.J. Hardy – $2.65MM+ ($4MM)($4.65MM)

3B – Bill Hall – $6.8MM

IF – Mike Lamb – $400k

IF – Alcides Escobar – $400K

LF – Ryan Braun – $745K

CF – Mike Cameron – $10MM (club option)

RF – Corey Hart – $444K+ ($3MM)

OF – Tony Gwynn Jr. – $400K

IF –   Craig Counsell  --  $1MM

SP – Yovani Gallardo – $404K

SP – Dave Bush – $2.55MM+($3.5MM)($4.0MM)

SP – Manny Parra – $400K

SP – Jeff Suppan – $12.5MM

SP –

RP – David Riske – $4.25MM

RP – Seth McClung – $750K ($1.5MM)($1.655MM)

RP – Carlos Villanueva – $413K

RP – Mitch Stetter – $400K

RP – Jorge Julio – $950K

RP – Eduardo Morlan – $400k

RP – Todd Coffey – $800k

RP – Trevor Hoffman – $6MM

Other commitments: Craig Counsell – $400K buyout

Figures are off of Cot's.  My arb estimates are first parenthetical, actual is second.  You have to include everyone on the 40-man roster, and the 1 extra spot(probably league min minor leaguer).  That gets payroll to $74.6965.  Weeks and Hart still need to come in.  If they settle before their hearings at the midpoint, payroll would be about $81.3965.

By the way, if you're talking incentives that might be earned in 2009, I'd not even include those in this.  At the middle of Weeks and Hart's arb gaps payroll actually sits at $81.3965, so that's definitely into the 80-85 range that the FO's been touting.  I'm sure they're simply taking the worst case Hart/Weeks numbers and adding it to what they currently have.

Also, with my numbers, if they sign another SP at some point, 400k (league min) would need to come off of the total payroll and the cost of the SP's salary for 2009 added in.  That being said, at most, I think Doug/Mark might spend $2MM on an SP.  And I'll bet that's a huge stretch and only if, for example, Jon Garland falls to them.

I could see a split contract for Mulder or Benson, though, for less than $2MM total.

Jeff Suppan is a pile of *** ***.  Get rid of that peice of ***.  Why the *** is he getting 12.5 million.  The whole organization is fucking retarded for keeping that ***.

*** all you dummies.  Have fun being lossers.  Its your fault.