My apologies for the late post. Apparently my lunch hour was already taken up by an appointment I had forgotten. Oh well, it's here now. Enjoy!
Here at Bernie's Crew we want to continue to improve our work and be
one of the most original and reliable blogs on the internet. With that
being said, instead of going through the 2008 season, give some grades
and simply review the different sides of the game, I'm going to do a
weekly/bi-weekly series (time permitting) to review the season of each
individual player. Upon completion of each review, we should be able
to judge if this player lived up to their expectations, what should be
expected of them in the 2009 season and what they'll need to improve as
they continue to their career.
In 2007 Ryan Braun burst on to the scene in a way that no one could have imagined, going .324/.370/.634 with 34 HRs and 97 RBIs in just 113 games. Unfortunately, such a stellar performance during his rookie year meant that Braun could only drop off in 2008. The hope was that this drop off would be minimal.
Braun's off season was a busy one. After a horrendous season defensively in 2007, Ryan was hell bent on quieting all the doubters in 2008, and was spending a considerable amount of time at a training facility at Pepperdine University. Then the middle of January arrived and Ryan Braun received a phone call that revealed the signing of Gold Glove winner Mike Cameron. The result was obvious. Bill Hall had been moved from third base to play center field in 2007 to open the door for Braun. When Cameron signed, Hall was on his way back to third base, and with Kevin Mench and Geoff Jenkins off to free agency, Braun was on his way to left field. It was the second time in two years the Brewers changed the position of one of their 'star' players.
But the hope was that this one would work out better than the Hall move. When Hall had moved to center, he not only struggled defensively, but completely fell off the wagon at the plate. This crushed the Brewers' hopes of a playoff run in 2007, but it would not crush the Brewers in 2008. After receiving the call, Braun quickly put on an outfielder glove and got to work.
The results didn't reveal themselves right away, and there was worry after the first month that the combination of the sophomore slump and a position change was on the way. But there wasn't much need to worry. Braun hit .276/.300/.448 in the opening month of the season, with three home runs and nine doubles, but 22 Ks and just three base on balls. Thankfully, there were signs that Ryan was about to break out of his shell, and they started at the end of the month in the Brewers second series against the Chicago Cubs. In those three games he went 7 for 13 with three doubles a home run and seven RBIs.
This success bled into May with a change in the lineup, where Braun crushed the ball to a line of .322/.355/.695. This included 11 home runs, seven doubles, two triples and 22 RBIs. While his K/BB ratio of 25/6 was still a little embarrassing, it became tolerable with his kind of production. It was also during this month that Ryan inked his long term contract and became the clear leader on the team. Ryan signed an eight year, $45M dollar deal on May 15th, which guaranteed his Brewerhood until the year 2015. Three days later, Ryan tried to will his team to a single victory over the reigning champs with a two home run four RBI game. Unfortunately it wasn't enough, and Ryan let his teammates know about it. He said, "I almost felt like this series we didn't expect to win. We were competing. I know everybody tried hard, but it's not about trying hard. You've got to expect to win. I almost feel like we never really expected win any of these games." This was the day that many believed that Ryan became the leader of this team.
And began Ryan lead by example for the rest of May before falling apart in June. Ryan fullowed up his stelar May with a .248/.298/.486 month, with six bombs and 18 RBIs, but the 23/6 K/BB numbers continued to plague. However, what Braun couldn't do with his bat, he tried to make up for in the field and on the bases. He showed drastic improvement in the field over the first three months, and while he still took some pretty poor routes to the ball, he was strides ahead of Bill Hall from the year before. On top of that, Ryan picked up six stolen bases without being caught. And on top of that, he improved his ISOP slightly, something that would be important for him later on in the season.
July more than made up for his struggles in June, as Ryan went to hit a stunning .366/.411/.752 with nine home runs, six doubles, three triples and 23 RBIs. On top of that Ryan vastly improved his K/BB ratio with 21 K's and eight walks. It was also during this month that Braun began to assert himself as a Cardinals killer. In the final two games of the Brewers four game sweep, Braun went 8 for 9 with two homeruns and a triple including a two run shot in the top of the ninth of the final game to seal up the sweep.
Ryan cooled down some in August and understandably so. Braun dropped to a more than respectable up .289/.349/.592 line with five bombs and fourteen RBIs. Interestingly, he did most of that damage after straining his intercostal muscles on August 9th against the Washington Nationals. As a result Ryan managed just 76 ABs during this stretch. One can imagine it was a frustrating time for Ryan, but as a fan I was thrilled. Obviously there was no reason to be thrilled about the injury, but how Ryan changed his game to adapt to the problem was exceptional. Many players are extremely stubborn, and stick to the game they've played all their life despite their current problems. Ryan is hardly stubborn. After straining his intercostals Braun conceded to going opposite field after realizing it often hurt to try and pull the ball. Furthermore, Ryan was decidedly less aggressive at the plate taking six walks over those 76 ABs, which is a vast improvement considering the six walks he often took in early months were amidst well over 100-120 ABs.
The Brewers left fielder of the future struggled mightily, as did the most of his teammates, in the month of September, largely due to his injury. But Ryan, as many expect him to always do now, found ways to be productive. He hit just .208 in the final month of the season, but he took 12 walks in his final 101 ABs and reduced his K's all the way down to 18, somewhat saving his .356 slugging percentage. On top of that, Ryan added three stolen bases and 14 runs with an on fire Prince Fielder behind him. Ryan finished his year on some what of a statistical high note by going 5 for 16 in the playoffs, but I'm sure he would have rather had another 30 ABs.
Ryan's final line looks like this: .285/.335/.553, 37 HRs, 106 RBIs, 129 Ks, 42 BBs, 14 SBs and 4 CSs. One can only imagine how much better this line could have ended up being if Ryan hadn't been injured. While this injury only lasted a little over a month, Ryan's home run and RBI production were likely hit. What's most promising about Ryan's year is not necessarily in the numbers, but rather progression of those numbers throughout the season. Ryan did a better job than probably any one of adapting to the way pitchers were pitching to him. In the end, he ultimately realized that pitchers weren't giving him great pitches to hit. While he would love to get a hit every time out there, he soon realized that he could rely on his teammates to get him home if he chooses to get on base.
Meeting Expectations: To say that Ryan's 'fall' in batting line is a sign of not living up to expectations is obviously not even a consideration. Ryan led every regular in batting average, slugging percentage, home runs and RBIs. There is nothing to whine about there. Did Ryan exceed expectations? If anything, Ryan met expectations, but he did not exceed them. Exceeding them would have put him at an average above .300 in my world with over 50 HRs in a sophomore season where scouting reports on him are officially out. No need to fret though. Those years are on their way.
Predictions: At only 25 years old, Ryan is clearly the main stay and icon of the Brewers for the future, and likely hasn't even tapped most of his potential. What's most exciting is that Braun's sophomore slump came with improvement in all aspects of the game. Those aspects included plate discipline, readjustment to new pitching strategies, adjusting to injury and finally defense. Though Ryan's bat would have given him higher value at third base, the improved defense and quality offensive numbers puts him almost as high on the list for left fielders.
So what will Ryan do in 2009? All signs point upward. The few months Ryan excelled fell upon rough months of injury and difficulty adjusting. Expect those difficulties to be behind Braun, and those months of excellence to be even more impressive. I'm on board with almost every projection out there and am going with a .303/.363/.580 with at least forty bombs, provided all those health issues. As for the field, look for Braun to be a little more aggressive. While I don't expect his routes to the ball to be much better, his first step will improve significantly, making the Brewers outfield defense to be one of the best in the NL. Lastly, look for Braun to be a little more aggressive on the bases, especially if Corey Hart bounces back from a rough second half. Macha likes to move his guys around and with Braun's 78% SB success rate, don't be surprised to see him on his horse.