Why not Shouse?

Many Brewers fans and blogs alike have been asking the same question all offseason.

Why are Doug Melvin and the Crew not conversing with Brian Shouse and his agent in an attempt to lock him up for the 2009 season?

Tom Haudricourt checks in with some minor news.

I even put in phone calls to Shouse's agents over the past couple of days to see what was happening, but they didn't return the calls. (It's been hard getting agents to return calls in this wacky market, perhaps because they have nothing to report).

Now, courtesy of Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com, comes word that Tampa Bay is showing interest in signing Shouse (it's near the end of his column).

The Brewers decided to part ways with Shouse, 40, when he told them he wanted a two-year deal in free agency. Even with his past effectiveness, the Brewers thought two years was too much at his age.

Shouse is a Class B free agent, meaning the Brewers would get a sandwich draft pick between the first and second rounds in June as compensation if he signs with another club. The signing team would not forfeit a draft pick.

Not much has circulated about Brian over the course of the winter.  He originally was connected with the Colorado Rockies, but that ship seemed to have sailed when Shouse demanded a two-year deal.  Perhaps the Rockies will come calling when the lefty is forced to lower his demands in the coming month.  Now the Rays are reportedly interested.  You can be sure that the Rays will not be overstepping a one-year deal for a veteran bullpen arm like Shouse.  Their payroll may be higher after making the World Series last season, but they are still a small market team.

Brian Shouse did a tremendous job for the Milwaukee Brewers over the last two seasons.  The southpaw pitched 51.1 innings in 2008 and posted a 2.81 ERA.  His WHIP remained an impressive 1.17, and the 40-year old owned a decent 2.45 BB/9 rate.  Most importantly for a LOOGY, he held left-handed hitters to a measly .180 average.  His sidearm action is incredibly difficult for a lefty to pick up at the plate.

The supposed mystery surrounding Milwaukee and their apparent apathy towards Shouse is not as confusing as it first seems. 

The Milwaukee Brewers have not attempted to resign Brian Shouse to a one-year contract for two reasons.  As TH said above, the veteran lefty is demanding a two-year deal.  At 40-years old, that is difficult for an organization like Milwaukee's to justify.  The Crew will simply let Shouse troll for his two-year deal elsewhere and collect the sandwich pick for his services.

Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, the Brewers are not concerned with the loss of Shouse because they have already found his replacement, who arguably could perform better than Shouse himself in 2009.  Mitch Stetter bounced back and forth between Nashville and the big league team last season, posting a 3.20 ERA in 25.1 innings with the Crew and a 2.48 ERA with the Sounds.  The 28-year old Stetter held left-handed hitters to a .158 average, even better than Shouse's impressive .180 average.  Not to mention Mitch boasted a healthy 11.01 K/9 rate with the big league team last season.

The greatest strength Stetter brings to the Brewers' bullpen is the fact that he is not strictly a LOOGY.  The southpaw even held right-handed hitters to a paltry .170 AVG with only one home run allowed.  That average against righties should climb a bit in 2009, as Mitch was largely supported by a .206 BABIP against righties.  While there is no guarantee that BABIP would rise towards the mean BABIP of approximately .300, but the statistical odds suggest it will rise. 

Mitch brings a lot of great things to the table.  He strikesout plenty of batters, he handcuffs both right-handed and left-handed hitting, and he will be much cheaper in 2009 than will Brian Shouse.  The biggest concern with Stetter, however, is his control.  His career BB/9 rate has hovered around 3.00 throughout his professional career (which is certainly nothing to brag about), but it jumped to 6.75 BB/9 in 2008 in his limited duty with the big league squad.  

The numbers are not completely transparent, however.  The vast majority of those walks came in May, when the lefty walked 8 batters in only 5.1 innings.  He put it together after that month, never walking more than three batters in a single month besides his terrible May.  It seems his walk rate was skewed by one bad month last season, as it hovered around the 3.5 mark otherwise.  Nevertheless, his control will have to improve from his 2008 mark if he wishes to sustain any type of success with the Brewers in 2009.

Forgotten about in the whole Brian Shouse and Mitch Stetter conversation is R.J. Swindle.  He is known for his 82-84 MPH fastball and his 55 MPH curveball.  That's right.  55 MPH curveball.  The 25-year old also has a slider he likes to utilize against lefties.

Swindle's minor league numbers suggest he has a very good chance to pitch effectively out of the 'pen for Milwaukee, if given the chance.  Last season in Philadelphia's minor league system, R.J. posted a 0.54 ERA over 16.2 innings in Double-A ball.  After being promoted to Triple-A midseason, the soft-tossing lefty boasted a 1.98 ERA in 36.1 innings.  His stint in Triple-A also included a .383 BABIP, so Swindle even posted a 1.98 ERA while getting incredibly unlucky.  His FIP was 1.41.  Needless to say, that is very good. 

The southpaw is a control pitcher who never had a walk rate above 1.80 BB/9 until his 4.2 inning cup of coffee with the big league squad last season.  Swindle also limits home runs to an enormous extent (0.25 HR/9 rate in 2008 in Triple-A) and misses more bats than the majority of power pitchers do.  He K-ed 12.63 batters per nine innings in Class-AAA ball.  Remember that is not a small sample size either.  

Swindle profiles very well as a LOOGY in Milwaukee's bullpen.  He only has thrown 4.2 innings in the big leagues, so he obviously has very little experience.  The big question will be whether or not Ken Macha and the Crew wish to carry two lefties in the bullpen, or simply stay content with one like they did so often last season.  Swindle will be given every opportunity to make the big league squad out of Spring Training though.  You can be sure of that.

In conclusion, Brian Shouse is not being ignored by the Milwaukee Brewers because they believe him to be a poor pitcher.  In fact, he arguably was the best and most consistent reliever out of the 'pen over the last two seasons.  Brian Shouse will not be returning to Milwaukee because the Brewers already have two suitable replacements on their roster, both who will be much cheaper than Shouse.  Doug Melvin also wishes to collect the sandwich draft pick in compensation for his services over the last two-plus years.

We all wish you well, Brian.

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Bernie's Crew is a Milwaukee Brewers blog that addresses everything concerning the Brewers. It discusses major league news, minor league news, and big news around Major League Baseball as a whole. It is a community where Brewers fans can let their voice and opinions be heard. If you have any comments or questions, email me at berniescrew@gmail.com.

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