This year I be releasing my Top 25 Prospects in conjunction with the people over at Between the Green Pillars, which means the list is going to posted somewhat out of order to match up with what Ryan and Jay have for their Top 25. An up-to-date list of the Bernie's Crew Top 25 can be found at the bottom of each individual post.  There will be a new prospect posted each day both here at Bernie's Crew, and also over at Between the Green Pillars.  Each prospect overview will have thoughts from both blogs as well.  Be sure to check back daily!

Alcides Escobar

Born: 12/16/1986
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 155 lbs
Throws: R
Bats: R

Alcides plays fantastic defense at a premium position, while hitting .328/.363/.434 last season for the Huntsville Stars.  Any questions as to why he is the number one prospect in Milwaukee's system?

The 22-year old shortstop took major strides in Huntsville in 2008.  His batting average improved from .283 in 2007 to .328 in 2008.  Perhaps most of that improvement can be explained by his .375 BABIP last season, but the young man has traditionally posted high BABIPs because of his plus-speed on the basepaths.  More importantly, his plate discipline took a step forward in 2008.  His horrid 4.6% walk rate in Huntsville in 2007 jumped a bit to 5.4% in 2008.  That illustrates a rather steady improvement in his walk rate as he has progressed up the minor league ladder.  The strikeout rate also improved slightly last season, from 15.9% to 15.0%.  Alcides may hardly walk at all, but the young man also puts the ball in play quite often, allowing his speed to cause havoc and rush throws across the diamond.  Needless to say, his walk rate must improve in 2009.  The trend, however, suggests Alcides should display a better eye at the plate as he jumps to Nashville next season.



As you can see above, Alcides does not possess much power at the plate at this time.  His wiry frame has filled out a bit, but he still slaps the ball around the diamond and lets his speed get him on base.  It is important to note that his ISO power jumped to .106 from .071, but it still is well below-average.  As with his improvement in plate discipline, last season illustrated his more powerful approach at the plate.  After hitting only one home run and 13 doubles in 2007, Escobar slugged 8 home runs and 24 doubles in only 50 more at-bats.  Those increased power numbers cannot be explained by his high BABIP.  The young man's frame is beginning to fill out a bit, which suggests more power could be available right around the corner.  His defense may always remain his calling card, but Alcides would immediately become much more valuable if he could break the double-digit home run mark with a slight increase in doubles.  I am not suggesting he is akin to J.J. Hardy at the plate, but more muscle and more experience could mean more power and a higher OBP.  That is purely speculation based on his minor league trends over the last two seasons, however.

Speaking of Alcides' defense, some have said his defense was worth as many as +22 runs for the Stars last season.  That is incredible for only a 22-year old shortstop.  He possesses quik feet, very soft hands, and a strong, accurate arm to first base.  His speed gives him fantastic range going both ways.  Baseball Reference puts his Range Factor at 5.87.  Compare that to J.J. Hardy's 4.36 and the league average 3.95 at the position, and it gives a rudimentary measure as to how much ground Escobar can cover at shortstop.  The Brewers are reportedly going to work with Alcides at second base a bit this Spring Training.  It will be under the tutelage of new Brewers coach, Willy Randolph, but do not think Alcides is being groomed for duty at second in the big leagues.  It is likely to be shortstop or bust for the young man.  The work at second is simply to broaden his range of skills on the diamond.  His power and lowish-OBP only profile well at short, which is why folks have suggested J.J. Hardy move to third to make room for the young shortstop.

With J.J. Hardy entrenched at short for at least one more season, Alcides Escobar will almost certainly begin the 2009 season with the Nashville Sounds.  The Brewers organization loves the spectacular defense he brings, but they would like to see a bit more improvement on the offensive end before making the full-time switch to the big leagues.  The plate discipline must improve before he projects as anything other than a #8 hitter in the big leagues.  His defense, like Adam Everett, will certainly provide value to the Brewers in the coming years, but the raw tools are there for much more than a no-hit, all-defense shortstop.  He will never be a 20+ home run guy, but his level swing and plus-speed (34 stolen bases in 2008) suggest he could hit .290 or .300 in the second spot of the order -- especially with the rather low strikeout rate.

2009 presents a prime stage for Alcides to prove his offensive improvements are more than a one-year fluke.  I believe he will be able to maintain his above-average BABIP due to his above-average speed and low flyball rate, but his plate discipline is another matter.  The trend over the last two years suggests Alcides will improve his walk rate to about 7%, which is borderline acceptable.   He may be the first minor leaguer brought up to the big league squad after an injury in the middle infield.  Otherwise, Alcides will have to wait his turn and break into the spotlight in 2010.  Will he knock on the door to the big leagues and spur either a position switch or trade for J.J. Hardy, or will the young man continue to hack away and rely solely on the base hit to get on base?  I postulate that the 22-year old shortstop will take another step forward offensively in 2009 and cement his status as the #1 prospect in Milwaukee's organization.  What that will mean for J.J. Hardy in 2010, I have no idea.  It will, however, be extremely intriguing to keep tabs on all season.

PROJECTED ARRIVAL: 2009/2010
OVERALL: B+

Jim's Ranking: 1

Bernie's Crew Top 25 Prospects