Now that the top 25
lists are done,
it's time to talk about the state of the system with a few of the people who
put in work on those lists. Jim Breen, the author of the list over at Bernie's
Crew and BC contributor Aaron Kittell will join Pillars’ regulars Ryan Topp and
Jay Montague in discussing who ended up where and why, general trends within
the system and taking a look forward at where the system is headed.
Yesterday, we
talked about how the Brewers under Jack Zduriencik tenure were great
at producing guys that could hit, but struggled some trying to find
pitchers who could stay healthy and consistently get guys out. I think we would
all agree that while the upper levels of the system are painfully
thin on potential "impact starters," there are many
intriguing arms in the lower minors. Who are we going to be talking
about at this time next year as 2009's breakout pitcher?
Aaron: Mark
DiFelice is likely to be the minor leaguer who has the biggest impact
at the major league level in 2009. His high K/BB ratio and ability to
pound the zone is going to give him the opportunity to take that
fifth spot and eat up a lot of much needed innings if Bush or McClung
struggle. Right now he's just a meager prospect in the system, but he
has a lot more to offer and will show it in 2009.
Ryan: He does
have that great combination of high strikeout and low walk numbers,
that’s for sure. I’m not sure where he’ll fit in at
the big league level this season, but I feel better knowing that he
is there should he be needed.
Jim: Cody
Scarpetta is the pitcher folks will be talking about at the end of
the season. The right-hander has battled tendon issues with his right
middle finger, but Cody can straight-up throw the baseball. His
fastball is in the 94-95 MPH range comfortably, but the young man can
dial it up as high as 97 MPH on occasion. The real gem of his arsenal
is the curveball. He arguably has the best curveball in Milwaukee's
entire minor league system, which is saying a lot for someone who has
only thrown 36.1 professional innings.
I think he can breakout
in 2009 because he will finally not have to concentrate on rehab over
the offseason. He can focus on improving his control and perhaps
fine-tuning his changeup. That would give him four pitches that
profile to be at least league average. Only Jake Odorizzi can boast
that in the Brewers organization right now. Scarpetta's body is
absolutely stacked for such a young pitcher, which leads me to
believe his physical maturity and plus-stuff will allow him to
dominate hitters in Appleton next season.
Jay: I agree
that Scarpetta looks like he could have a breakout this season. 58
K's in 36 IP shows what kind of stuff he has. Hopefully he can stay
healthy all year. I also think Efrain Nieves and Wily Peralta are two
arms that Brewer fans have to keep an eye on down in the low levels
of the farm system for a potential breakout.
Aaron: Below
AAA, David Welch is my dark horse. Welch struggled a bit last year at
AA-Huntsville where he recorded a 3.90 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP. The
struggles, however, were a result of a control issue. Up until last
season Welch had a K/BB ratio of 3.6 to one. However, in Huntsville
it fell all the way to 1.86 to one. This is slightly alarming, but
considering Welch's average stuff across the board, it's to be
expected.
Ryan: I would
love to see someone like Welch breakout, Aaron, because this team is
so thin on close to ready arms that any sort of depth at the upper
levels would be a welcome addition. Like you said, though, his stuff
is average so it’s hard to know what to expect.
Jim: Welch does
not impress me too much, unfortunately. He fared well against younger
competition in both West Virginia and Brevard County, but his
statistics last season were rather misleading. His 3.90 ERA and .258
average belied his rather high 3.11 BB/9 rate, his 1.40 HR/9 rate and
his lucky .275 BABIP. His strikeout rate has steadily declined as he
has moved up the ladder, while his home run rate has increased. Not
good signs. I am not suggesting the lefty is not a solid pitcher, but
he is not poised for a "breakout" season. I actually prefer
Brae Wright of the two, even though I'm not sold on Wright's
consistency. He has too little margin for error with his mediocre
stuff, just like David Welch.
Aaron: I tend to
agree with you on Welch, and that's why I'm sticking to him as my
'dark horse' candidate. But you have to consider all of his seasons,
not just last year's. There was a considerable raise in the walk
rate, HR rate and WHIP compared to seasons before. Now is this an
anomaly? Or is it the norm? I think a jump to AAA for half the season
this year will tell all. What's most concerning now that I've sifted
through more of the data is his sub-1.00 GO/FO ratio, and keep him in
that outside shot range. The key for me is whether or not he
understands what type of pitcher he is. That may be where Brae Wright
has a leg up.
Jay: One young
pitcher I wanted to discuss is Bobby Bramhall. He is a lefty that
posted a solid 2.51 ERA, 1.10 whip and 106 K's in 110 innings. His
numbers were probably aided by pitching in the Florida State league,
but not so much that they mean nothing. I think Bramhall could
develop into a decent lefty reliever or even a back of the rotation
starter if he continues to progress the next year or two.
Jim: Bobby
Bramhall actually just missed my Top 25. His changeup is rated as the
best changeup in the organization, and his ERA has backed up that
point so far. His low HR rate, high K rate, and decent control make
him a pitcher to watch. His stuff is not overpowering, however, which
is why I am hesitant to rate him too highly. A nice season in 2009
would do wonders for his status as a potential top prospect. I'd also
like to point out that the young man posted that 2.51 ERA and 1.10
WHIP with a roughly average .293 BABIP. No luck there. His FIP
(Fielding Independent ERA) was 2.82, so he is a solid guy across the
board.
Aaron: I think
you have to jump on the Jake Odorizzi train. Jake wasn't all that
impressive in the few innings he got last season, but he has solid
mechanics and already has four pitches in his repertoire. Odorizzi
will probably spend most of the year in Appleton and will undoubtedly
gain some strength as he grows into his body. In the end, I think he
finds himself in the top 10 of most Brewer Prospect boards.
Ryan: I feel
like we buried the lead a little bit here, because Odorizzi is
clearly one of the better pitching prospects in the Brewers’
organization. Both Jim and I ranked him as the second best pitcher in
the system, behind Jeffress. As Aaron mentioned, Odorizzi has four
legit pitches, which is outstanding for a guy fresh out of High
School. If he stays healthy, Odorizzi is almost certainly a big
league pitcher, and possibly as good as a #2. He is the guy whose
every start next year will be noteworthy, and I hope one of my trips
up to Appleton will coincide with a start of his.
Jim: Moving on,
a name that many have been overlooking is Blakeney Billings. He's
6'5", reportedly added over 10 MPH to his fastball in the last
two seasons and has great command. Watch out for that young man in
Helena next season.
Aaron: Billings
is a very intriguing late round draft pick that could really impress
in the near future, especially because he shows exceptional command
of all of his pitches. That's definitely on display in his Rookie
League numbers, where he walked just one batter in his 12 innings.
Very Mark DiFelice-esque. You just knew I was going to get him in
somewhere. But again, as with most of the prospects we like so much,
he's a very young 19 years old and at least three years away from the
show.
Ryan: There are
so many candidates for breakout seasons next year. Odorizzi,
Scarpetta and Nieves are favorites of mine that have already been
mentioned. I'll be keeping a close eye on all of the early draftees
from last season, especially Seth Lintz, who has
front-of-the-rotation potential. Zach Braddock is another one to keep
an eye on, especially if he can stay healthy.
Aaron: I would
love for Seth Lintz to succeed, but I think he's very far away from
being on anyone's radar, despite his similarities to Odorizzi. 16
walks in 18.1 IP is pretty scary, but at the same time 26 K's makes
him a viable blip on the map.
Ryan: I hear
what you're saying about the BB issues with Lintz, and it's obviously
something he'll have to improve. That said, I think he can. When
looking at really young guys just starting out, it's important not to
read too much into small samples, because things can change very
quickly.