Prospect Chat: Part II

Now that the top 25 lists are done, it's time to talk about the state of the system with a few of the people who put in work on those lists. Jim Breen, the author of the list over at Bernie's Crew and BC contributor Aaron Kittell will join Pillars’ regulars Ryan Topp and Jay Montague in discussing who ended up where and why, general trends within the system and taking a look forward at where the system is headed.

Yesterday, we talked about how the Brewers under Jack Zduriencik tenure were great at producing guys that could hit, but struggled some trying to find pitchers who could stay healthy and consistently get guys out. I think we would all agree that while the upper levels of the system are painfully thin on potential "impact starters," there are many intriguing arms in the lower minors. Who are we going to be talking about at this time next year as 2009's breakout pitcher?

Aaron: Mark DiFelice is likely to be the minor leaguer who has the biggest impact at the major league level in 2009. His high K/BB ratio and ability to pound the zone is going to give him the opportunity to take that fifth spot and eat up a lot of much needed innings if Bush or McClung struggle. Right now he's just a meager prospect in the system, but he has a lot more to offer and will show it in 2009.

Ryan: He does have that great combination of high strikeout and low walk numbers, that’s for sure. I’m not sure where he’ll fit in at the big league level this season, but I feel better knowing that he is there should he be needed.

Jim: Cody Scarpetta is the pitcher folks will be talking about at the end of the season. The right-hander has battled tendon issues with his right middle finger, but Cody can straight-up throw the baseball. His fastball is in the 94-95 MPH range comfortably, but the young man can dial it up as high as 97 MPH on occasion. The real gem of his arsenal is the curveball. He arguably has the best curveball in Milwaukee's entire minor league system, which is saying a lot for someone who has only thrown 36.1 professional innings.

I think he can breakout in 2009 because he will finally not have to concentrate on rehab over the offseason. He can focus on improving his control and perhaps fine-tuning his changeup. That would give him four pitches that profile to be at least league average. Only Jake Odorizzi can boast that in the Brewers organization right now. Scarpetta's body is absolutely stacked for such a young pitcher, which leads me to believe his physical maturity and plus-stuff will allow him to dominate hitters in Appleton next season.

Jay: I agree that Scarpetta looks like he could have a breakout this season. 58 K's in 36 IP shows what kind of stuff he has. Hopefully he can stay healthy all year. I also think Efrain Nieves and Wily Peralta are two arms that Brewer fans have to keep an eye on down in the low levels of the farm system for a potential breakout.

Aaron: Below AAA, David Welch is my dark horse. Welch struggled a bit last year at AA-Huntsville where he recorded a 3.90 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP. The struggles, however, were a result of a control issue. Up until last season Welch had a K/BB ratio of 3.6 to one. However, in Huntsville it fell all the way to 1.86 to one. This is slightly alarming, but considering Welch's average stuff across the board, it's to be expected.

Ryan: I would love to see someone like Welch breakout, Aaron, because this team is so thin on close to ready arms that any sort of depth at the upper levels would be a welcome addition. Like you said, though, his stuff is average so it’s hard to know what to expect.

Jim: Welch does not impress me too much, unfortunately. He fared well against younger competition in both West Virginia and Brevard County, but his statistics last season were rather misleading. His 3.90 ERA and .258 average belied his rather high 3.11 BB/9 rate, his 1.40 HR/9 rate and his lucky .275 BABIP. His strikeout rate has steadily declined as he has moved up the ladder, while his home run rate has increased. Not good signs. I am not suggesting the lefty is not a solid pitcher, but he is not poised for a "breakout" season. I actually prefer Brae Wright of the two, even though I'm not sold on Wright's consistency. He has too little margin for error with his mediocre stuff, just like David Welch.

Aaron: I tend to agree with you on Welch, and that's why I'm sticking to him as my 'dark horse' candidate. But you have to consider all of his seasons, not just last year's. There was a considerable raise in the walk rate, HR rate and WHIP compared to seasons before. Now is this an anomaly? Or is it the norm? I think a jump to AAA for half the season this year will tell all. What's most concerning now that I've sifted through more of the data is his sub-1.00 GO/FO ratio, and keep him in that outside shot range. The key for me is whether or not he understands what type of pitcher he is. That may be where Brae Wright has a leg up.

Jay: One young pitcher I wanted to discuss is Bobby Bramhall. He is a lefty that posted a solid 2.51 ERA, 1.10 whip and 106 K's in 110 innings. His numbers were probably aided by pitching in the Florida State league, but not so much that they mean nothing. I think Bramhall could develop into a decent lefty reliever or even a back of the rotation starter if he continues to progress the next year or two.

Jim: Bobby Bramhall actually just missed my Top 25. His changeup is rated as the best changeup in the organization, and his ERA has backed up that point so far. His low HR rate, high K rate, and decent control make him a pitcher to watch. His stuff is not overpowering, however, which is why I am hesitant to rate him too highly. A nice season in 2009 would do wonders for his status as a potential top prospect. I'd also like to point out that the young man posted that 2.51 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with a roughly average .293 BABIP. No luck there. His FIP (Fielding Independent ERA) was 2.82, so he is a solid guy across the board.

Aaron: I think you have to jump on the Jake Odorizzi train. Jake wasn't all that impressive in the few innings he got last season, but he has solid mechanics and already has four pitches in his repertoire. Odorizzi will probably spend most of the year in Appleton and will undoubtedly gain some strength as he grows into his body. In the end, I think he finds himself in the top 10 of most Brewer Prospect boards.

Ryan: I feel like we buried the lead a little bit here, because Odorizzi is clearly one of the better pitching prospects in the Brewers’ organization. Both Jim and I ranked him as the second best pitcher in the system, behind Jeffress. As Aaron mentioned, Odorizzi has four legit pitches, which is outstanding for a guy fresh out of High School. If he stays healthy, Odorizzi is almost certainly a big league pitcher, and possibly as good as a #2. He is the guy whose every start next year will be noteworthy, and I hope one of my trips up to Appleton will coincide with a start of his.

Jim: Moving on, a name that many have been overlooking is Blakeney Billings. He's 6'5", reportedly added over 10 MPH to his fastball in the last two seasons and has great command. Watch out for that young man in Helena next season.

Aaron: Billings is a very intriguing late round draft pick that could really impress in the near future, especially because he shows exceptional command of all of his pitches. That's definitely on display in his Rookie League numbers, where he walked just one batter in his 12 innings. Very Mark DiFelice-esque. You just knew I was going to get him in somewhere. But again, as with most of the prospects we like so much, he's a very young 19 years old and at least three years away from the show.

Ryan: There are so many candidates for breakout seasons next year. Odorizzi, Scarpetta and Nieves are favorites of mine that have already been mentioned. I'll be keeping a close eye on all of the early draftees from last season, especially Seth Lintz, who has front-of-the-rotation potential. Zach Braddock is another one to keep an eye on, especially if he can stay healthy.

Aaron: I would love for Seth Lintz to succeed, but I think he's very far away from being on anyone's radar, despite his similarities to Odorizzi. 16 walks in 18.1 IP is pretty scary, but at the same time 26 K's makes him a viable blip on the map.

Ryan: I hear what you're saying about the BB issues with Lintz, and it's obviously something he'll have to improve. That said, I think he can. When looking at really young guys just starting out, it's important not to read too much into small samples, because things can change very quickly.

Comments

 

Dave said:

Jack Zduriencik has gotten a little too much credit for his drafts.  I think you have correctly identified holes in our system.  With drafting position players for so many years, there are no top shelf pitching prospects and he never found gems in later rounds.   The guys you bring up will be ok, but they make me think of Ben Hendrickson. I hope the guys they drafted last year will develop into special pitchers.

February 19, 2009 9:31 AM

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Bernie's Crew is a Milwaukee Brewers blog that addresses everything concerning the Brewers. It discusses major league news, minor league news, and big news around Major League Baseball as a whole. It is a community where Brewers fans can let their voice and opinions be heard. If you have any comments or questions, email me at berniescrew@gmail.com.

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