With a week of Spring Training games officially in the books, rosters have begun to take shape, with only a few spots up for grabs in most camps.  As a result it’s time to start making comparisons to last year’s teams.  Which ones got better?  Which got worse?  And most importantly, whose going to be on top?  To try and figure this out, we’ll go through each off season transaction of every team in the NL Central.  Using FanGraphs Value Wins statistic, we’ll try to gauge whose on the rise, whose on the fall and whose still on the level.

Before we begin, it must be noted that Value Wins is a pretty straight forward statistic, but like all stats, requires some knowledge to understand it’s underlying meaning.

You’ll note that in grids below there will be some players who have two values.  The two numbers represent the number of wins added to the team they played with during that time.  For example, in 2008 CC Sabathia was worth 3.1 wins in the time he spent with Cleveland Indians and 4.7 wins for his time with the Milwaukee Brewers.  Had CC carried these numbers with one team for an entire season, he would have been worth 7.8 wins.  What this means is we can’t just add up wins lost and wins gained to get our answer because these numbers are playing time oriented.  Some projections will be required in order to assess things properly.

Today’s team, our very own Milwaukee Brewers.

2009 Free Agents Lost    2008 Value Wins
Eric Gagne                               -1.0
Gabe Kapler                            +1.7
Mike Lamb                            -1.2/-0.1
Ben Sheets                              +4.6
Brian Shouse                           +0.4
Russell Branyan                      +1.2
Ray Durham                        +1.8/+0.9
CC Sabathia                        +3.1/+4.7
Guillermo Mota                          0.0
Craig Counsell                         +1.0
   
Retired:   
Salomon Torres                         +0.4
Total                                         +13.8

If there was ever a way to measure Sabathia’s value to the Milwaukee Brewers in 2008, this is it.  Consider the idea that Ben Sheets pitched an entire season with the team, while CC just three months.  In the end, CC managed to surpass the value of Sheets in nearly 60 fewer innings.  But the main point is 13.8 wins lost to free agency is enormous feat to overcome.  This is especially difficult because the bulk of those wins are lost at the top of the rotation.

It should also be noted how valuable Gabe Kapler was.  To give you a gauge of how valuable, we’ll compare Kapler to first half All-Star, Corey Hart.  Hart received 657 PAs in 2008 and hit .268/.300/.459, good for +0.9 wins.  Kapler, on the other hand, received just 245 PAs and hit .301/.340/.498 for +1.7 wins.  At what time do you pull your regular and put in a guy who is having an incredible season?  Had Kapler received more playing time, would that pennant race have come down to the last game?

The remaining players that need to be replaced are basic role players, either in the bullpen or on the field.  I find it particularly interesting that players like Brian Shouse and Salomon Torres have such a low value.  Because bullpen pitchers get so few innings, it’s understandable that their value would be diminished, but a sub-3.00 ERA over 50 innings seems considerably more valuable.  What this says, however, is that it’s not as difficult to replace arms in the bullpen, since Mota’s 4.11 ERA over 57 IP is worth just a half win less.

Now that we’ve looked at what was lost, question becomes:  How did the Brewers try to make up nearly 14 wins in the offseason?  Let’s take a look who the new faces are.

Free Agent Signings     2008 Value Wins
RJ Swindle                             -0.2
Jorge Julio                             +0.1
Trevor Hoffman                      +0.1
Craig Counsell                       +1.0
Braden Looper                       +1.7
Mike Lamb                              -0.1
Total                                       +3.1

Obviously that number is not particularly accurate for a couple of reasons.  First of all, we’re using six players to replace ten.  Secondly, guys like RJ Swindle aren’t given a fair shake, since he managed just four innings in the big leagues last season.  Accurately determining the right number is going to be difficult since the final roster, especially with regard to the bullpen is difficult to foresee.

So let’s think about this on a player by player basis.  We can obviously remove Craig Counsell from the discussion since he has returned, but Mike Lamb is a different story.  Lamb came in late in the season, but can basically be combined with Russell Branyan as the second back-up infielder and perhaps also with Ray Durham.  Mike Lamb may or may not make the roster with Casey McGehee nipping at his heals.  Can one of these guys pull together two value wins?  Based on Lamb’s past years and his age, there is a very slight chance that he’ll be able to put up those kind of numbers in a reserve role.  McGehee is in a similar role.  While McGehee probably has a higher ceiling, his lack of slugging will prevent him from reaching such a plateau.  Therefore, if the Brewers plan on getting these wins back, they’ll need someone like Mat Gamel to come in and push Bill Hall into a reserve role.  The likelihood of that happening is slim, and I suspect the team will only manage to get back just one of those wins from the reserve role.  (-1.0 Wins)

Replacing the bullpen is a bit more promising.  Mota, Torres, Shouse and Gagne combined for -0.2 wins because of Gagne’s blunders.  Their replacements are up in the air. 

Mitch Stetter or RJ Swindle will take over Shouse’s role.  Stetter was quite successful last season in limited time, while Swindle had considerably success in AAA, tossing 36 innings and amassing and impressive 1.98 ERA with 51 Ks.  Stetter has the one up because he was here before, but his recent struggles gives Swindle an opportunity.  Whoever gets this specialized role shouldn’t have a hard time matching Shouse’s value, and I consider this a push for the Brewers.

Replacing Gagne and Mota should be an easy gain for the Brewers right?  Maybe.  The signing of Jorge Julio was a bit suspect, but when you compare his numbers to Gagne’s and Mota’s, they’re even across the board.  Provided Julio makes the squad, he should be able to at least better Gagne.  The replacement of Mota is still up for grabs though.  The front runners are Tim Dillard, Joe Bateman and Mark DiFelice.  I expect DiFelice to be kept in the minors to keep him extended in the case of an injury in the rotation.  Bateman was probably the most impressive reliever in AAA last season, but his struggles this spring pushes Dillard just slightly ahead.  Dillard had some success last season despite some controls with his command, but he should easily match Mota’s numbers from 2008.  If anything he’ll be a little more consistent. (+1.0 Wins)

The closer’s role should be an interesting one.  Torres was outstanding for most of last season, but fell apart down the stretch, where as former Padres’ closer Trevor Hoffman struggled a bit early on but was very effective down the stretch.  Either way, their numbers have been very similar as far as Value Wins go.  Hoffman essentially tops out at around 1.6 wins in some of his best years.  Can he reach this plateau?  Probably not, but his numbers indicate he will be more effective that Torres unless something drastic happens (+0.5 Wins)

Replacing Gabe Kapler is going to be particularly difficult because of the type of year he had.  The possible replacements consist of Brad Nelson, Tony Gwynn Jr, Chris Duffy, and Trot Nixon.  With Nelson’s power, he is much more likely to accumulate the kind of value needed to replace Kapler, but in the end these guys won’t be able to put together the impressive year defensively and offensively he had.  Some of these wins may be regained with Mike Cameron playing the full season.  Twenty-five games can do a lot for the value of the player, but I still say the Brewers lose out here. (-0.5 Wins)

But here’s where things get messy.  Up to this point the Brewers have pretty much broke even.  But how do you make up for 9.3 wins with two players?  Gallardo essentially takes over the bulk of this burden.  Braden Looper’s numbers have been pretty consistent over the years, but even in his best season starting he managed just 1.7 wins.  If Gallardo avoids injury and pitches 200 innings, a fair estimate based on Bill James projection is around +4.5-5.0 wins.  As a result, we’ll say Gallardo simply cancels out Ben Sheets’ 2008 numbers.  The only upside for the Brewers this season is they have starters like Mark DiFelice and Chase Wright in the wings if some back of the rotation pitchers struggle.  These guys may be able to negate some of the problems Carlos Villanueva and Seth McClung had early on in the year in that fifth rotation spot.  At the same time they could produce more harm that help (-3.0 Wins)

In the end the Brewers have lost three wins from 2008 to 2009 with significant wiggle room to one way or the other.  This wiggle room comes with a little bit of guessing though.  Suppan had his worst year last year, as did Corey Hart, who went from a monster to a mouse in just a couple of weeks.  Some guys had exceptional years and are going to come down a bit, while others are just going to keep developing their skills.  Considering three wins would essentially knock the Brewers out of the playoffs based on last years numbers, the margin for error this year is razor thin.  Every game will matter this season for the Brewers, and they can't take a single one for granted.

Brewers off-season:  -3.0 Value Wins

On Deck:  Chicago Cubs