The Milwaukee Brewers were unable to take a single game from the Detroit Tigers, dropping the finale 3-2. The road trip was still a modest success, as a .500 road trip is always
desirable, but the Crew could have flown back to Milwaukee in brighter
spirits.
Detroit found all their offense on a three-run homer by Brandon Inge on a hanging breaking ball from Yovani Gallardo. Justin Verlander flashed some nasty stuff, striking out eight over 7.2 innings. His fastball was consistently in the 95-97 MPH range and showed perhaps the best changeup I have seen him throw over the past couple years. Milwaukee only managed two solo homers off the right-hander, and Fernando Rodney easily shut down the Crew in the ninth.
Casey McGehee broke into the scoring column for the Brewers by smoking an opposite field homer on a 94 MPH fastball up in the zone. McGehee has been a savior to this starting lineup since Rickie Weeks went down for the year. He is currently hitting .349 with a .414 OBP. The second baseman now has two homers and 12 RBI and is one of the hottest bats in the Brewers lineup.
He has been perhaps the best story thus far in the 2009 season for the Brewers, but can he maintain this pace? It should be obvious to most fans that McGehee is seeing the ball exceptionally well, so expecting him to maintain his .349 AVG is quite unrealistic. Still, will McGehee remain an above-average player for the Brewers?
The largest reason Casey McGehee owns a .349 AVG is his .409 BABIP. That sort of luck will be very difficult to replicate throughout the season. His line drive rate is a fantastic 24.6%, which accounts for his massive BABIP. If Casey McGehee can continue to pound out line drives, that average and BABIP will only continue to climb. What is more likely, however, is that Casey's BABIP and correspondingly his batting average will drop as his line drive rate regresses a bit.
His walk rate is also uncharacteristically high at 11.8%. Since 2006, he has not posted a walk rate above 9.4%, which was posted in Double-A ball in 2006. The walks have likely been aided by the fact that he has hit in front of Ryan Braun as of late, but it is unreasonable to believe that Casey McGehee has suddenly developed such improved plate discipline. The walks should decrease. The good news, however, is that his strikeout rate is consistent with his career numbers in the minors. That aspect of his game should not change much.
Although his batting average and on-base percentage should decrease a bit, I expect his power to improve like it has over the past couple weeks. His ISO is only .122 on the season, and Casey posted better numbers in every season in the minors since 2006. In the #2 slot in the lineup, a few more doubles and home runs should be in the cards. A dip in average and OBP can easily be offset by a bit more power.
Defensively, Casey has been downright average at second. He has displayed solid hands and an accurate arm, but his range is rather underwhelming. His UZR rating is +0.6 runs at second. With his above-average offense, especially for a second baseman, Milwaukee can be more than happy with average defense at second base. It is a bit better at third, but Casey more than likely will play second base more often than third base.
Overall, Casey McGehee is here to stay. His batting average and on-base percentage should drop a bit, but his high line drive rate suggests he could easily maintain a .300 average and .350 OBP throughout the year. It is also significant that his power should improve, which more than offsets his batting average dip. His defense is also more than capable at second.
The Chicago Cubs may not have had room for McGehee on their 40-man roster, but one team's trash is another team's treasure. McGehee was a diamond in the rough, and Doug Melvin's keen eye signed him this offseason. 99 plate appearances and a .349 batting average later, Casey McGehee has developed into a bona fide treasure for the Milwaukee Brewers -- one that should continue to produce for the Crew for the rest of the season.