Doug Melvin has repeatedly said that his goal for the offseason is to acquire two new arms for the starting rotation.
Given the lack of intriguing options on the free agent market this winter and the impending departure of players like J.J. Hardy and perhaps even Mat Gamel, it has become increasingly likely that one of these starting pitchers will come to Milwaukee via the trade market.
Literally dozens of pitchers are available via the trade. Very few arms are "untouchable," as it merely requires the perfect package to pry a good arm or two from an organization.
Therefore, the list below does not pretend or claim to be an exhaustive list of the available pitchers via the trade market. It simply is a smattering of arms that have already been discussed as possible trade candidates this winter.
Roy Halladay, Toronto: Roy Halladay's name has been at the forefront of trade discussions in all of the MLB since July. Doug Melvin called Toronto's former GM J.P Riccardi to gauge the prospect package required to obtain the former AL Cy Young winner, but Milwaukee backed off when hearing it would cost both Alcides Escobar and Mat Gamel. Expect the price tag to drop a bit this winter, as Halladay only has one season remaining on his contract. Milwaukee may be better served chasing an arm with more than one controllable year, however.
Jeremy Bonderman, Detroit: Once one of the most talented young pitchers in the game, Jeremy Bonderman has fallen off the map due to a severe shoulder injury and general ineffectiveness. He only threw 10.1 innings in 2009 and posted an unsightly 8.71 ERA. It is also concerning that his velocity dropped approximately 3 MPH last season, which suggests his injured shoulder is still a major issue. Despite these issues, Detroit could easily find a trading partner if they were willing to eat his $12.5M remaining salary in 2010 -- but only if Bonderman can prove healthy this Spring, flashing his old mid-90s fastball.
Nate Robertson, Detroit: Robertson is yet another salary dump option coming out of Detroit, with $10M remaining on the final year of his three-year contract. The left-hander has never been particularly successful with the Tigers, posting a career 4.92 ERA, but much of his 2009 struggles were due to a .344 BABIP and an uncharacteristically high walk rate. This would not be an "upside" move for the Crew. Robertson could, however, become a useful swingman for little-to-nothing in return.
Felix Hernandez, Seattle: Jack Zduriencik and the Seattle front office have never expressed a desire to trade King Felix, but numerous articles (such as this one) continue to suggest that Seattle wishes to shed his contract. His $3.8M salary from 2009 is about to take a monstrous jump after compiling a 2.49 ERA in 238.2 innings this season. I cannot even begin to comprehend what type of prospect package would be necessary to acquire Felix Hernandez, but I can be sure that Milwaukee does not have the starting pitching needed. Not to mention Hernandez is under Seattle's control for two more seasons. Logically, a trade would come following the 2010 season, just prior to his final season before free agency.
Brandon Morrow, Seattle: Morrow has been the most popular target in the "Trade J.J. Hardy" saga. Dave Cameron from U.S.S. Mariner suggested the deal a couple weeks ago, and Brewers fans have since run wild with speculation. Morrow is the typical youngster will fantastic stuff (mid-90s fastball, mid-80s slider, 9.29 K/9 career strikeout rate), but no control (5.83 BB/9 career walk rate). The 25-year old right-hander has the potential to develop into a #1 or #2 pitcher. If Doug Melvin feels new pitching coach Rick Peterson and his staff can mold Morrow into a successful big league pitcher, a Morrow-for-Hardy swap is certainly in the cards.
Kevin Slowey, Minnesota: The Twins desperately need help at shortstop and second base, and Kevin Slowey is a perfect buy-low candidate for the Brewers. He posted a 4.86 ERA in 2009. The right-hander is only one year removed from a 3.99 ERA and suffered from a .352 BABIP last season. He tends to be a bit prone to the long ball, but he displays fantastic control of the baseball. A move to the National League never hurts, either.
Francisco Liriano, Minnesota: I had not heard much about the 26-year old being on the trading block, but this Brew Crew Ball post suggests his name has been thrown around. His poor 2009 is a concern because his velocity is down 3 MPH from his incredible 2006 season. His walk rate has also climbed over the last two years. Despite that, Doug Melvin and the Brewers may not be able to find a better "upside" move this offseason. If Liriano were to lower his walk rate to even 3.50 BB/9 in the National League, he is exactly the type of pitcher who could transform the starting rotation.
Boof Bonser, Minnesota: MLB Trade Rumors lists Bonser as a Non-Tender Candidate. If he is non-tendered, Milwaukee should immediately sign Bonser. If not, the Brewers should look into trading for the 28-year old right-hander. He did not pitch in 2009 for the Twins, as he underwent shoulder surgery, but he consistently displayed a decent strikeout rate (career 7.28 K/9) with good control (career 2.87 BB/9). His .342 BABIP in 2008 belied a solid pitching performance. His 4.19 FIP was overshadowed by a 5.93 ERA. If Bonser enters Spring Training with a healthy arm, Milwaukee should seriously consider picking him up.
Javier Vazquez, Atlanta: This will undoubtedly be one of the biggest names on the trading block, as the Tim Hudson extension makes either Vazquez or Lowe expendable. After posting a 2.87 ERA in his contract year, Vazquez's trade value will never be higher. I love what Javier Vazquez could bring to Milwaukee's starting rotation. He owned a 9.77 K/9 strikeout rate while only surrendering 1.81 walks per nine innings pitched, for goodness sake! With that said, Doug Melvin would once again be thinking too short-term if he traded premium prospects for only one year of Javier Vazquez.
Derek Lowe, Atlanta: Atlanta will attempt to move Lowe and his remaining $45M over the next three years, but I cannot think of too many teams that would be willing to take on that type of cash. Milwaukee is certainly not one of them. After disappointing Braves fans with a 4.67 ERA in the first year of his four-year, $60M contract, Atlanta is handcuffed. Lowe is yet another example as to why Milwaukee should not sign aging veterans to multi-year contracts.
Michael Bowden, Boston: Bowden has long been targeted by Brewers fans because he is Boston's second best pitching prospect after Clay Buchholz. If Hardy is traded to Boston, it is thought that Melvin should ask for Bowden and immediately slide him into the starting rotation. The right-hander, however, has seen his strikeout rate plummet since reaching Triple-A. He still displays fantastic control of the baseball, but a 6.27 K/9 against Triple-A hitters is nothing to get overly excited about. I was high on Bowden coming out of Double-A ball, but my enthusiasm has been severely tempered. Still, Doug Melvin could certainly do worse.
Bronson Arroyo, Cincinnati: You may not know it, but Bronson Arroyo has thrown over 200 innings in each of the past five seasons. He even posted a sub-4.00 ERA in 2009. The Reds will almost certainly attempt to shed the $11M owed to him in 2010, along with the $11M option in 2011 with a $2M buyout. Arroyo is still an enigma, however. Dave Cameron illustrates how inconsistent Arroyo is on the mound. He managed a sub-4.00 ERA with only a 5.19 K/9 strikeout rate. I do not want Bronson Arroyo.
John Lannan, Washington: This Nationals blog suggested a J.J. Hardy for John Lannan swap, and the left-hander has officially been on the rumor circuit this autumn season. The deal does not past the sniff test, however, as the Nationals also owned one of the worst starting rotations in all of baseball. Their offense scored plenty of runs. Why would the Nationals trade the only bright spot in their rotation to improve an offense that was already above-average?
The options are not overly exciting, are they?
Please post in the comments any pitchers who may be on the trading block this offseason that I failed to mention. Also comment on the above pitchers. Who would you like to see in a Brewers uniform next year?