When reading the Royals acquired second baseman Chris Getz and third baseman Josh Fields from the White Sox for utilityman Mark Teahan, my expectations for what Doug Melvin could demand in return for J.J. Hardy increased significantly.
Hardy for underachieving center fielder Carlos Gomez of the Minnesota Twins does not qualify as meeting my expectations.
Gomez is one of the fastest players in Major League Baseball, stealing 33 bases for the Twins in 2008. He plays a fantastic center field and will succeed Mike Cameron's defense quite well. Not to mention he only turns 24-years old next month and has four years of team control remaining on his contract.
The potential is obvious. Gomez hit .287/.366/.412 in 2007 for the Mets' Triple-A affiliate and .281/.350/.423 in 2006 during his stint in Double-A. His ISO power was respectable in the minor leagues, which is huge for a player with as much speed as Gomez.
Since joining the Twins following the Johan Santana trade prior to the 2008 season, however, Carlos Gomez cannot be classified as anything other than a work-in-progress.
For a player that supremely relies on speed at the plate, a .246 career batting average with a .292 career on-base percentage is awful. He only managed to hit three home runs in 315 at-bats last season, so the slugging percentage is also nothing to get excited about. Even on the basepaths, Carlos Gomez had a 33% caught stealing rate -- awful for one of the fastest players in the bigs.
Dave Cameron says:
Even with his elite range in the outfield, Gomez is going to have to
improve offensively in order to be worth a starting job. With infields
taking away the bunt, he’s going to have to get himself on base in
other ways, because it’s nearly impossible to justify starting an
outfielder with a .286 career wOBA when you’re trying to make the
playoffs.
Tom Haudricourt tweets:
J.J. Hardy is a good player who had a down year. I'm not sure what Carlos Gomez is. Thus far, a pretty big underachiever.
The Ghost of Moonlight Graham opines:
For the Twins to get a shortstop of the caliber of Hardy for a fourth
outfielder who manager Ron Gardenhire wanted to strangle half the time
is a steal in my opinion.
Even Rob Neyer, who actually likes the move for the Brewers, writes about Carlos Gomez:
But what a zero, offensively! Yes, he's just now turning 24. But
however young, you'd like to see a bit of progress, right? Gomez's
seasonal OBPs: .288, .296, .287. That looks like a guy who just doesn't
get it, at all. Sure, he did much better while still just a baby in
both Double- and Triple-A, but those seasons are starting to seem like
a long time ago.
Carlos Gomez is a young player who swings at too many pitches at the plate. This handcuffs him from taking too many walks and also causes quite a high strikeout rate. From personal experience, Gomez also rarely makes solid contact at the plate, either.
In all aspects, he is a black hole offensively.
Milwaukee simply hopes that the 24-year old suddenly "gets it" next season with the Brewers. There are very few statistical markers that suggest Gomez will suddenly hit in 2010, other than his minor league numbers. But as Neyer said in the quotation above, those minor-league days are beginning to seem like a long time ago.
Defensively, however, Gomez provides tons of value.
This move signifies an organizational commitment to defense. In 2008, Gomez posted a +16.5 UZR. Mike Cameron has never posted above an +11 UZR since joining the Milwaukee Brewers and has never posted a superior defensive season in his career.
A defender such as Carlos Gomez in center field should help improve the starting pitching staff indirectly. It seems Doug Melvin is attempting to take a page out of Jack Zduriencik's book in Seattle by stockpiling plus defenders up the middle. Seattle has Franklin Gutierrez and Jack Wilson, while Milwaukee now has Alcides Escobar and Carlos Gomez. Seattle enjoyed a nice uptick in their winning percentage as their defense improved. Milwaukee is hoping to jump on the bandwagon.
The Carlos Gomez acquisition frees up approximately $13-14M of payroll for the starting rotation. I am a bit concerned that Doug Melvin could misguidedly allocate that chunk of change to a pitcher such as Jarrod Washburn or Joel Pineiro, but an expanding budget is rarely a negative for a small-market GM.
The Brewers picked up a fantastic defender at a premium defensive position with four years of team control remaining on his contract. They also got a dynamic and exciting speed player that could become an impact player with a bit more plate discipline.
Given his major league history, however, that does not seem likely in 2010. A young player could suddenly "get it" in a new environment, but to trade one of the organization's most valuable trade pieces for a such a raw (and non-improving) offensive player is puzzling -- especially given the organizational need for pitching.
Carlos Gomez may have the more exciting tools and potential than many of the potential deals offered to Doug Melvin, but that does not mean he is not extremely underwhelming as a return for J.J. Hardy. Milwaukee now has a question mark in center field to go along with the beaten and battered starting rotation. Put me down as not a fan of this deal.
Watching Gomez roam center field and put up a double-digit UZR season will be a joy, but it will certainly not outweigh his low-contact, high-strikeout approach at the plate.
Doug Melvin could have done better. It is almost impossible for me to believe that Doug Melvin could not have done better than simply Carlos Gomez.