A single day following the conclusion of the 2009 World Series, the J.J. Hardy rumor mill has already begun churning.

Charley Walters of The Pioneer Press speculates that the Twins could come calling if the organization fails to resign Orlando Cabrera in the coming weeks.  Walters also speculates that starting pitcher Glen Perkins would be a logical starting point in the negotiations.

Brewers fans then have to ask is Glen Perkins a sufficient return for J.J. Hardy?

Perkins is a left-hander who features a 89-91 MPH fastball with an 81-82 MPH slider and a changeup with solid velocity differential at 81-82 MPH.  He originally threw a curveball instead of a slider when progressing through the Twins system, but seemingly opted for a slider beginning in 2008.  The move came after Perkins spent 112 days on the DL with a left shoulder strain in 2007.  I am unaware if the injury triggered the change to a slider, but the timeline coincides nicely.

John Sickels (h/t badger80) wrote in 2008 that Perkins' minor league strikeout numbers have yet to transfer to the big leagues.  Sickels believed that if the strikeouts could jump, Perkins' effectiveness on the mound would obviously follow suit due to his above-average control on the mound.

Looking at the numbers, the southpaw struck out 4.41 batters per nine innings on his way to a 4.41 ERA in 151 innings two seasons ago.  The end results were encouraging for a pitcher with less than a year in the big leagues, but his Fielding Independent ERA (FIP) was 5.14.  Even Jeff Suppan missed more bats in 2008.

The strikeout numbers did not increase this past season, either. 

In fact, his strikeout rate dropped to 4.20 K/9 in 2009.  Perkins rode that low strikeout rate and a .306 opponent batting average to a 5.89 ERA.  His velocity also decreased approximately one MPH on all of his pitches.

His 2009 season was also marred by numerous injuries.

Perkins missed time due to shoulder tendinitis, elbow neuritis in his ulnar nerve, and a contusion on his right thigh.  He was thus limited to only seventeen starts and 96.1 innings last season.

While the left-hander may not have missed significant time with any one injury, the specific injuries to his throwing shoulder and elbow should give one pause.  These maladies are an indication that a more serious injury could be around the corner -- especially when considering that Perkins lost velocity last season.

The 26-year old owns a career 2.36 BB/9 walk rate in the big leagues.  Perhaps more importantly, he is also controllable for a bit over four more years, if my math serves me correctly.  A young, controllable pitcher with a minor league track record of high strikeout rates and superb command and big league experience is valuable to an organization.

The issue is that Perkins does not have enough value to land J.J. Hardy on his own.  Nor does he have the value to be a legitimate centerpiece to a deal.

When crafting a trade package, the centerpiece should not be a pitcher with severe injury risks and a track record of extremely low strikeout rates in the big leagues.  The potential to be a #3 starter is clearly there, but well beneath the surface.  He would have to buck a string of arm injuries and 281.2 innings of big league pitching with a 4.63 K/9 strikeout rate.

That is a significant trend to break.

And given the early trades of the offseason that is now upon us, Glen Perkins alone would not be an adequate return for a player of J.J. Hardy's caliber.

The Red Sox acquired Jeremy Hermida for a Triple-A LOOGY in Hunter Jones and a promising young left-hander in Jose Alverez.  Not exactly ground breaking, but the Marlins acquired a useful bullpen piece in Jones and a nice pitching prospect in Alverez for Hermida -- a player who has posted a 0.1 and 0.3 WAR over the past two seasons, respectively.

The White Sox picked up Mark Teahan for starting second baseman Chris Getz and power-hitting third base prospect Josh Fields.  Teahan is a mediocre utilityman (with a 0.1 and 0.2 WAR over the past two years), yet the Royals acquired ten years of team control between two players with promising potential.  Getz may not be more than a utility infielder, but Josh Fields already has a 23 home run year with the White Sox under his belt.

Unlike Hermida and Teahan, neither of whom have posted a one-win season since 2007, J.J. Hardy remains incredibly useful -- despite his offensive struggles this season. 

FanGraphs notes that Hardy has posted the third-best combined UZR (defensive) numbers in the past three years combined.  He even ranks ahead of the great Omar Vizquel (likely only due to a lack of playing time on Vizquel's part).  That is better than Ryan Zimmerman, the slick third baseman for the Nationals.

Hardy is also only one year removed from a four-win season.  That is significantly more productive than either Hermida or Teahan, especially when considering Hardy was worth +1.4 wins in 2009, yet Hermida and Teahan still required more than one young, talented player in return.

Surely, Glen Perkins cannot be considered more valuable than Josh Fields at this point.  Both have shown flashes of capability at the big league level, but are currently dealing with inconsistency and did not produce in 2009.

Add Perkins' injury concerns to the mix, and it is clear that Glen Perkins is not an adequate return for J.J. Hardy on the trade market.  Minnesota would have to come calling with another intriguing prospect to add to the trade package or perhaps substitute Perkins for someone like Kevin Slowey (not that Minnesota is willing to move him and has his own injury concerns).

If Doug Melvin really wanted to shake things up between the Brewers and the Twins, he could consider adding Mat Gamel to the J.J. Hardy trade package and target someone like Francisco Liriano and a premium pitching prospect.  No one could accuse Melvin of not being creative or aggressive with that trade.

Take the numerous trade rumors that are about to swirl with a grain of salt, but they provide fodder for baseball fans across the nation during the dark winter months.

The offseason is here, ladies and gentlemen, and I cannot wait to cover what transpires.  Enjoy the ride.