Milwaukee Brewers Blog - Bernie's Crew

Gomez An Underwhelming Return For Hardy

2009-11-07T00:32:03Z

When reading the Royals acquired second baseman Chris Getz and third baseman Josh Fields from the White Sox for utilityman Mark Teahan, my expectations for what Doug Melvin could demand in return for J.J. Hardy increased significantly.

Hardy for underachieving center fielder Carlos Gomez of the Minnesota Twins does not qualify as meeting my expectations.

Gomez is one of the fastest players in Major League Baseball, stealing 33 bases for the Twins in 2008. He plays a fantastic center field and will succeed Mike Cameron's defense quite well. Not to mention he only turns 24-years old next month and has four years of team control remaining on his contract.

The potential is obvious. Gomez hit .287/.366/.412 in 2007 for the Mets' Triple-A affiliate and .281/.350/.423 in 2006 during his stint in Double-A. His ISO power was respectable in the minor leagues, which is huge for a player with as much speed as Gomez.

Since joining the Twins following the Johan Santana trade prior to the 2008 season, however, Carlos Gomez cannot be classified as anything other than a work-in-progress.

For a player that supremely relies on speed at the plate, a .246 career batting average with a .292 career on-base percentage is awful. He only managed to hit three home runs in 315 at-bats last season, so the slugging percentage is also nothing to get excited about. Even on the basepaths, Carlos Gomez had a 33% caught stealing rate -- awful for one of the fastest players in the bigs.

Dave Cameron says:

Even with his elite range in the outfield, Gomez is going to have to improve offensively in order to be worth a starting job. With infields taking away the bunt, he’s going to have to get himself on base in other ways, because it’s nearly impossible to justify starting an outfielder with a .286 career wOBA when you’re trying to make the playoffs.

Tom Haudricourt tweets:

J.J. Hardy is a good player who had a down year. I'm not sure what Carlos Gomez is. Thus far, a pretty big underachiever.

The Ghost of Moonlight Graham opines:

For the Twins to get a shortstop of the caliber of Hardy for a fourth outfielder who manager Ron Gardenhire wanted to strangle half the time is a steal in my opinion.

Even Rob Neyer, who actually likes the move for the Brewers, writes about Carlos Gomez:

But what a zero, offensively! Yes, he's just now turning 24. But however young, you'd like to see a bit of progress, right? Gomez's seasonal OBPs: .288, .296, .287. That looks like a guy who just doesn't get it, at all. Sure, he did much better while still just a baby in both Double- and Triple-A, but those seasons are starting to seem like a long time ago.

Carlos Gomez is a young player who swings at too many pitches at the plate. This handcuffs him from taking too many walks and also causes quite a high strikeout rate. From personal experience, Gomez also rarely makes solid contact at the plate, either.

In all aspects, he is a black hole offensively.

Milwaukee simply hopes that the 24-year old suddenly "gets it" next season with the Brewers. There are very few statistical markers that suggest Gomez will suddenly hit in 2010, other than his minor league numbers. But as Neyer said in the quotation above, those minor-league days are beginning to seem like a long time ago.

Defensively, however, Gomez provides tons of value.

This move signifies an organizational commitment to defense. In 2008, Gomez posted a +16.5 UZR. Mike Cameron has never posted above an +11 UZR since joining the Milwaukee Brewers and has never posted a superior defensive season in his career.

A defender such as Carlos Gomez in center field should help improve the starting pitching staff indirectly. It seems Doug Melvin is attempting to take a page out of Jack Zduriencik's book in Seattle by stockpiling plus defenders up the middle. Seattle has Franklin Gutierrez and Jack Wilson, while Milwaukee now has Alcides Escobar and Carlos Gomez. Seattle enjoyed a nice uptick in their winning percentage as their defense improved. Milwaukee is hoping to jump on the bandwagon.

The Carlos Gomez acquisition frees up approximately $13-14M of payroll for the starting rotation. I am a bit concerned that Doug Melvin could misguidedly allocate that chunk of change to a pitcher such as Jarrod Washburn or Joel Pineiro, but an expanding budget is rarely a negative for a small-market GM.

The Brewers picked up a fantastic defender at a premium defensive position with four years of team control remaining on his contract. They also got a dynamic and exciting speed player that could become an impact player with a bit more plate discipline.

Given his major league history, however, that does not seem likely in 2010. A young player could suddenly "get it" in a new environment, but to trade one of the organization's most valuable trade pieces for a such a raw (and non-improving) offensive player is puzzling -- especially given the organizational need for pitching.

Carlos Gomez may have the more exciting tools and potential than many of the potential deals offered to Doug Melvin, but that does not mean he is not extremely underwhelming as a return for J.J. Hardy. Milwaukee now has a question mark in center field to go along with the beaten and battered starting rotation. Put me down as not a fan of this deal.

Watching Gomez roam center field and put up a double-digit UZR season will be a joy, but it will certainly not outweigh his low-contact, high-strikeout approach at the plate.

Doug Melvin could have done better. It is almost impossible for me to believe that Doug Melvin could not have done better than simply Carlos Gomez.

Brewers Decline Weathers' Option

2009-11-06T21:01:47Z

The same day the Milwaukee Brewers traded J.J. Hardy to the Minnesota Twins for center fielder Carlos Gomez, the organization also announced that they declined David Weathers' 2010 option.

No real surprise there. The option was for $3.7 million with a $400,000 buyout. The Brewers need to allocate money elsewhere.

Weathers has been a good reliever over the years but just turned 40 and struggled down the stretch after coming from Cincinnati. He posted a 1-3 record and 4.88 ERA in 25 appearances with the Brewers.

Considering Weathers has seen his numbers consistently decline over the past couple of seasons, this decision was a no-brainer.

JJ Hardy sent to Minnesota for Carlos Gomez

2009-11-06T17:25:35Z

It didn't take long for Doug Melvin to start making moves. Just two days after the World Series finished, the Brewers GM started the off season by trading shortstop JJ Hardy for speedy center fielder, Carlos Gomez.

It's not the sexiest of trades and I'm sure fans are going to go after Melvin for not chasing down one of the Twins arms in this deal, but let's be honest here. JJ destroyed his trade value in 2009, and if it wasn't for a technicality that added an extra arbitration year to his contract, the former Brewers' starting shortstop wouldn't have garnered much of anything. Instead the Brewers were able to pick up a young athletic center fielder who is under their control for the next four years.

Gomez is definitely a solid outfielder, but his offense leaves much to be desired, at least for the moment. In parts of three seasons in the bigs, Gomez is hitting .246/.292/.346 with 59 SBs and 21 CS. There's no point in discussing the homerun numbers. That's just not his game. But can the Brewers really afford to have a guy with a sub-.300 OBP at the top of their line-up? Absolutely not, but Gomez's minor league numbers indicate he could become good enough. If Gomez can hit .280+ and utilize his speed a little more, he is the perfect fit for the Brewers.

And by perfect, I mean cheap. The Brewers are struggling to pay for their big players, and in order to keep them around for a little bit longer before rebuilding, they need to find ways to save money. By saying goodbye to Mike Cameron, the Brewers are saving up to $9M. An additional $4M is gained by shedding JJ's contract. This money can be used to try and swoon a starter off the slim free agent market or pick up the contract of a pitcher on the trade market.

So don't go after Doug just yet. This is an excellent precursor to a winter that should be filled with a frenzy of moves.

Trade Winds: Is Glen Perkins for J.J. Hardy Enough?

2009-11-06T13:00:00Z

A single day following the conclusion of the 2009 World Series, the J.J. Hardy rumor mill has already begun churning.

Charley Walters of The Pioneer Press speculates that the Twins could come calling if the organization fails to resign Orlando Cabrera in the coming weeks. Walters also speculates that starting pitcher Glen Perkins would be a logical starting point in the negotiations.

Brewers fans then have to ask is Glen Perkins a sufficient return for J.J. Hardy?

Perkins is a left-hander who features a 89-91 MPH fastball with an 81-82 MPH slider and a changeup with solid velocity differential at 81-82 MPH. He originally threw a curveball instead of a slider when progressing through the Twins system, but seemingly opted for a slider beginning in 2008. The move came after Perkins spent 112 days on the DL with a left shoulder strain in 2007. I am unaware if the injury triggered the change to a slider, but the timeline coincides nicely.

John Sickels (h/t badger80) wrote in 2008 that Perkins' minor league strikeout numbers have yet to transfer to the big leagues. Sickels believed that if the strikeouts could jump, Perkins' effectiveness on the mound would obviously follow suit due to his above-average control on the mound.

Looking at the numbers, the southpaw struck out 4.41 batters per nine innings on his way to a 4.41 ERA in 151 innings two seasons ago. The end results were encouraging for a pitcher with less than a year in the big leagues, but his Fielding Independent ERA (FIP) was 5.14. Even Jeff Suppan missed more bats in 2008.

The strikeout numbers did not increase this past season, either.

In fact, his strikeout rate dropped to 4.20 K/9 in 2009. Perkins rode that low strikeout rate and a .306 opponent batting average to a 5.89 ERA. His velocity also decreased approximately one MPH on all of his pitches.

His 2009 season was also marred by numerous injuries.

Perkins missed time due to shoulder tendinitis, elbow neuritis in his ulnar nerve, and a contusion on his right thigh. He was thus limited to only seventeen starts and 96.1 innings last season.

While the left-hander may not have missed significant time with any one injury, the specific injuries to his throwing shoulder and elbow should give one pause. These maladies are an indication that a more serious injury could be around the corner -- especially when considering that Perkins lost velocity last season.

All of this is not to say Perkins does not have value.

The 26-year old owns a career 2.36 BB/9 walk rate in the big leagues. Perhaps more importantly, he is also controllable for a bit over four more years, if my math serves me correctly. A young, controllable pitcher with a minor league track record of high strikeout rates and superb command and big league experience is valuable to an organization.

The issue is that Perkins does not have enough value to land J.J. Hardy on his own. Nor does he have the value to be a legitimate centerpiece to a deal.

When crafting a trade package, the centerpiece should not be a pitcher with severe injury risks and a track record of extremely low strikeout rates in the big leagues. The potential to be a #3 starter is clearly there, but well beneath the surface. He would have to buck a string of arm injuries and 281.2 innings of big league pitching with a 4.63 K/9 strikeout rate.

That is a significant trend to break.

And given the early trades of the offseason that is now upon us, Glen Perkins alone would not be an adequate return for a player of J.J. Hardy's caliber.

The Red Sox acquired Jeremy Hermida for a Triple-A LOOGY in Hunter Jones and a promising young left-hander in Jose Alverez. Not exactly ground breaking, but the Marlins acquired a useful bullpen piece in Jones and a nice pitching prospect in Alverez for Hermida -- a player who has posted a 0.1 and 0.3 WAR over the past two seasons, respectively.

The White Sox picked up Mark Teahan for starting second baseman Chris Getz and power-hitting third base prospect Josh Fields. Teahan is a mediocre utilityman (with a 0.1 and 0.2 WAR over the past two years), yet the Royals acquired ten years of team control between two players with promising potential. Getz may not be more than a utility infielder, but Josh Fields already has a 23 home run year with the White Sox under his belt.

Unlike Hermida and Teahan, neither of whom have posted a one-win season since 2007, J.J. Hardy remains incredibly useful -- despite his offensive struggles this season.

FanGraphs notes that Hardy has posted the third-best combined UZR (defensive) numbers in the past three years combined. He even ranks ahead of the great Omar Vizquel (likely only due to a lack of playing time on Vizquel's part). That is better than Ryan Zimmerman, the slick third baseman for the Nationals.

Hardy is also only one year removed from a four-win season. That is significantly more productive than either Hermida or Teahan, especially when considering Hardy was worth +1.4 wins in 2009, yet Hermida and Teahan still required more than one young, talented player in return.

Surely, Glen Perkins cannot be considered more valuable than Josh Fields at this point. Both have shown flashes of capability at the big league level, but are currently dealing with inconsistency and did not produce in 2009.

Add Perkins' injury concerns to the mix, and it is clear that Glen Perkins is not an adequate return for J.J. Hardy on the trade market. Minnesota would have to come calling with another intriguing prospect to add to the trade package or perhaps substitute Perkins for someone like Kevin Slowey (not that Minnesota is willing to move him and has his own injury concerns).

If Doug Melvin really wanted to shake things up between the Brewers and the Twins, he could consider adding Mat Gamel to the J.J. Hardy trade package and target someone like Francisco Liriano and a premium pitching prospect. No one could accuse Melvin of not being creative or aggressive with that trade.

Take the numerous trade rumors that are about to swirl with a grain of salt, but they provide fodder for baseball fans across the nation during the dark winter months.

The offseason is here, ladies and gentlemen, and I cannot wait to cover what transpires. Enjoy the ride.

Round 'em Up: Thursday 11.5.09

2009-11-05T18:56:11Z

Congratulations to the New York Yankees, the 2009 World Series Champions!

The 2009 baseball season has ended. The trade and free agent markets will begin to churn, however, as the offseason has officially begun.

Major League News

To celebrate the beginning of the offseason, I bring you news and links that are only tagentially connected to the Milwaukee Brewers. Slow news day.

The U.S.S. Mariner discusses some of the cheap starting pitching that come with a healthy risk. Expect Doug Melvin to target some of these names this winter, especially Carl Pavano and Erik Bedard. I would add Justin Duchscherer to that list. None of these arms will bring consistent and guaranteed production to Milwaukee, but a lower-cost, high-risk signing such as these could dramatically improve the starting rotation with some luck.

As expected, left-hander Noah Lowry has chosen free agency after being removed from the 40-man roster by the San Francisco Giants. He has struggled with arm injuries over the past couple years, but proved to be a very effective pitcher when healthy. If he is willing to sign a minor league contract, Milwaukee would be foolish to not inquire on his services.

Minor League News

Milwaukee resigned both infielder Erick Almonte and reliever Juan Sandoval to minor league contracts. Both players are likely to begin the season with the Nashville Sounds, but are nothing more than minor league depth signings.

Josh Butler had struggled in his AFL debut, but finally put together his first scoreless outing for the Peoria Javelinas. The right-hander tossed three scoreless frames, striking out three and walking two. It marked Butler's third win of his fall league campaign.

Former first-round draft pick Mark Rogers is scheduled to represent the Milwaukee Brewers in the AFL Rising Stars Showcase, but the right-hander got shelled once again yesterday. He now owns a 17.61 ERA this fall. It is far too soon to declare his sensational 2009 a fluke. His lack of control and sudden home-run tendencies, however, are concerning.

On a brighter side, Jonathan Lucroy continues his impressive Arizona Fall League. He went 1-for-3 with a double and an RBI. Taylor Green also upped his average to .200 with a 1-for-3 performance with a walk.

Don Money will return as the manager of the Nashville Sounds next season, but Milwaukee's Triple-A affiliate will have a new pitching coach. Rich Gale will replace Chris Bosio, who has accepted the new position as an advanced scout with the Brewers. Gale pitched for twelve seasons in the big leagues and most recently served as the pitching coach for the Nationals' Class-A team.

Baseball America notes that not all minor league teams experienced attendance. The Wisconsin Timber Rattlers enjoyed a record-breaking season at the gates in 2009. Milwaukee's Class-A affiliate could not have picked a better time to dream up a match made in heaven. It bucked the downward economic trend and marked one of the bright spots in Appleton this season.

Jim Callis from Baseball America hosted a chat with fans to answer some minor league questions. Callis noted that Eric Arnett now ranks as the organization's top pitcher, although Cody Scarpetta is one of Callis' personal favorites. It also has information on Jonathan Lucroy and Alcides Escobar.

Other Baseball News

As every baseball fan knows, the New York Yankees defeated the Philadelphia Phillies by the score of 7-3 last night to become the 2009 World Series Champions. It is a bit ironic that the league's largest payroll saw Hideki Matsui be the World Series MVP. It shows how some role players can get hot at the right time, which is a large reason as to why the playoffs are a crap shoot.

The Chicago White Sox reportedly acquired utility man Mark Teahan for second baseman Chris Getz and third baseman Josh Fields. If the trade has transpired, however, Teahan has not heard anything.

As posted yesterday, the Pittsburgh Pirates acquired second baseman Akinori Iwamura from Tampa for right-handed reliever Jesse Chavez. Evan Brunell of The Hardball Times assumes the unpopular position of claiming that the Tampa Bay Rays won the deal. Since the Rays were reportedly going to non-tender Iwamura later in the offseason, Brunell asserts the organization won for "getting something for nothing." I would characterize the deal as more of a win-win.

The Chicago White Sox remain busy on the first day of the offseason, signing reserve Mark Kotsay to a one-year, $1.5M deal.

Babes Love Baseball links to a story that explains how impending free agent Vicente Padilla shot himself in the leg during a hunting expedition in Nicaragua. Brilliant beginning to a bit of rest and relaxation for Padilla. He and Plaxico Burress can be buddies, now.

Nick Piecoro of Azcentral.com notes that right-hander Yusmeiro Petit and lefty Doug Slaten have been claimed by the Seattle Mariners and Washington Nationals, respectively. Petit has been a human home run derby on the mound throughout his big league career, but he still has the potential to be useful bullpen arm. I like the pick-up for the Mariners more than Slaten to the Nats.

The St. Louis Cardinals released reliever Brad Thompson yesterday. The young man has never been particularly impressive on the mound, but he should latch on with an organization early this winter.

The Braves made a low-risk signing by inking reliever Scott Proctor to a split contract. The 33-year old underwent Tommy John surgery last Spring, so his health is a bit of a wildcard at this point.

Andre Ethier won the MLB Clutch Award for his taste for late-inning heroics. The Dodgers' right fielder led the majors with six walk-off hits, including four walk-off homers. As much as I do not believe in reliability of the "clutch" factor from year-to-year, Ethier found himself in the zone during important moments throughout the season. Congratulations, Andre.

A 19-year old man pled guilty for stealing Baltimore's Cal Ripken Jr. monument. He probably is a die-hard Orioles fan who simply wanted an innovative way to decorate his dorm room. Think of it as a conversation piece.

BC Approved Music Video of the Day

Damien Rice & Lisa Hannigan -- Rootless Tree