Jim Goulart from Brewerfan.net agreed to do an interview a while
back, and he was great about the whole process. There are few people
that have more of an insight into the Brewers farm system than the guys
at Brewerfan, and I am extremely grateful to them for allowing me to
interview them. Here’s what Jim Goulart had to say. It’s some good
stuff.
Bernie's Crew: There has been much talk about Alcides Escobar this
off-season. Doug Melvin has spoken very highly of him in several
interviews, but most fans believe that Escobar cannot hold his own at
the plate because of his lack of power and plate discipline. What are
your thoughts about Alcides Escobar?
Brewerfan.net: It’s just not Doug Melvin, but seemingly any
Brewer front office member who has been quoted on Escobar — they’re all
very high on this kid. I think that’s what you have to understand
before anything else about Escobar, is that the Brewers saw something
in him from the very beginning. They placed Escobar in the rookie level
Pioneer League with Helena when he wasn’t yet 17 1/2 years old,
basically unthinkable, especially for a kid from Venezuela who wasn’t
acclimated to the U.S. but for a couple of weeks in Maryvale in that
pre-season. Then, after an age 18 season in full-season rookie ball at
West Virginia, Escobar more than held his own (in fact, excelled) in
the highly competitive Arizona Fall League as one of its youngest
representatives ever. Alcides followed that up with ‘06 and ‘07 seasons
that have him primed to begin 2008 most likely at AAA Nashville at age
21 and four months.
That being said, there are legitimate concerns, as you note, such as
his lack of any power at all. Escobar is probably now grown perhaps an
inch taller than his long-listed height of 6′1″, and his wispy frame,
ideal for shortstop, hasn’t led to extra-base hits by any stretch of
the imagination. He managed seven triples among his 151 base hits last
season, yet only 13 doubles. Back in 2005, he did better with 25
doubles to go with eight triples at West Virginia, but despite the
heavy air in the Florida State and Southern Leagues, he’s got to find
the gap for doubles more often as he grows into his body.
And yes, Alcides’ career walk ratio is ugly, just under .05 (one
walk for every 20 AB’s), even less last season. At bare minimum you
want to see minor leaguers walk once every ten AB’s, so he needs to at
least double his current rate. But Escobar doesn’t strike out often
either, so he must be hitting some bad balls in order to maintain his
.281 career average. If he can finally begin to establish some patience
(a big but not impossible if at this point), he shouldn’t have to
sacrifice his average, which is important.
Escobar’s defensive prowess is so off-the-charts that if he can make
even incremental improvements in slugging and on-base percentage, he’ll
be a valuable asset to the Brewers regardless of what J.J. Hardy is
doing two seasons from now. That’s a key, as Escobar might be in AAA
developing those needed offensive skills for perhaps as much as two
full seasons (technically the Brewers could keep him there for three
seasons, but that’s unlikely). His ceiling remains very high, and
rightfully so.
BC: The large consensus has been that Matt LaPorta will
not make it to the big leagues for another couple years. A fantasy
writer at ESPN.com wrote that we should expect to see Matt in a Brewers
uniform by the end of the season. Is that possible?
Brewerfan.net: I’m guessing by “couple of years” you mean
that LaPorta will debut at some point in 2009 rather than 2008. Look
for Matt to mash wherever he’ll be in the minors this season — if he
sees time in Brevard County, it’ll be interesting to compare his
numbers there with those of Ryan Braun, who was actually somewhat less
than superhuman (hard to believe) in 2006 in Florida before he
dominated at AA Huntsville. I absolutely expect to see LaPorta in a
Brewer uniform down the stretch as a September call-up after what
should be a monster season. And heaven forbid, but if Ryan Braun and/or
Corey Hart were to go down with significant injuries in July or August,
I don’t believe the Brewers would hesitate to plug LaPorta in and see
what happens. Here’s hoping Mike Cameron has a huge season of his own,
but it’s hard not to picture a Braun - Hart - LaPorta outfield for most
of 2009.
BC: Which unsung Brewers prospect should fans be on the lookout for in 2008?
Brewerfan.net: Always a fun question, isn’t it? I think we
have to dip in the middle and lower rankings of our Brewerfan Power 50
to find prospects who we can call “unsung” yet who legitimately might
sneak up on some people this coming year, although believe me, nobody
had Taylor Green on their potential unsung hero list last March, and he
only went on to shine as West Virginia’s third baseman, and his
left-handed bat led him to Organizational Player of the Year honors.
I’ve been told by at least one member of the organization that LHP
Derek Miller is going to have a significant big league career. He’s 26
years old and should be in Nashville’s rotation, if not to start the
season, then fairly early on. He had Tommy John surgery in his junior
draft year at the University of Vermont, but the Brewers drafted him in
the 47th round to retain his rights through his senior season as a
draft-and-follow. He’s made 66 starts in the Brewer system (3.49 ERA,
350 K’s in 374 IP), and all his peripherals simply demonstrate solid
consistency without significant shortcomings. He seems to profile
pretty comparatively with another Massachusetts lefty, Chris Capuano,
and that bodes pretty well for Miller and the Brewers in terms of a
potential rotation candidate for 2009.
To pick one younger guy, 4th round picks shouldn’t be considered
unsung, but Eric Farris should be a force offensively and defensively
at second base for West Virginia this season (and Brevard if he gets
the chance) — he’s a name Brewer fans will be much more familiar with
at the end of this season.
BC: Taylor Green won the Brewers Minor League
Player of the Year last year, yet no one is talking about this kid. Why
has he been largely ignored, and what special skills does Taylor bring
to the table?
Brewerfan.net: Green actually got his fair shake of ink in
the postseason with his award ceremony at Miller Park, and some
off-season updates about his efforts to help Canada qualify for this
summer’s Olympics in Beijing. But to be fair, he only turned 21 years
old last November, which is exceedingly young, and he’s realistically
three full years away from donning a big league uniform. (For some
perspective however, to revert back to question # 1, as young as Green
is, he’s still a month older than Alcides Escobar.) Green is
off-the-charts in terms of work ethic, and you would think that would
be the case with every single farmhand following his dream, but you’d
be surprised how often we hear behind the scenes that is not always the
case. He’s a left-handed bat, which given the current makeup of the top
prospects in the organization, is a big deal. The Brewers would love to
have 50 Taylor Green’s in their system when it comes to make-up. Let’s
see what Green exhibits this season in terms of infield position
flexibility, and if he can build on last season’s offensive success in
a tough offensive environment in the FSL. And remember, amazingly Green
hit 9th in that ridiculously awesome West Virginia lineup for half of
last season, so he was protected somewhat early on.
BC: Who is Rob Bryson and why should Brewers fans be so excited about the young pitcher?
Brewerfan.net: I’m going to temper that excitement just a bit
because it’s a big-time rule to at least let a kid play one year of
full-season ball before you can use that word (”excite”) when
discussing any prospect, particularly a pitcher. Bryson is a 6′1″ RHP
who the Brewers drafted and followed through community college. He blew
away Pioneer Rookie League hitters to the tune of a 70-12 K-to-BB ratio
in 54 IP in ‘07. He just turned 20 years old in December, but he has to
continue working on his secondary pitches, as do all pitchers his age.
I’m very optimistic that we’ll be discussing him with you again at this
time next year, but the jump out of rookie ball is significant.
BC: Mat Gamel can hit, nobody questions that, but what are
the Brewers going to do about his defense? Is a position switch
inevitable?
Brewerfan.net: I love National League baseball, but there are
times when one does picture the big league Brewer lineup with the DH
available. Who knew Ryan Braun actually truly disliked playing third
base until he came out and said so this spring? The fact Gamel raked as
he did with his defense failing so, shows some pretty tough character,
or simply confirms that, well, he can rake. Gamel’s left-handed bat
(again, a key) is important in the Brewers’ grand plans, but you have
to wonder if it’ll be as Milwaukee’s first baseman should the Brewers
have to trade away Prince before his walk season in 2011. The problem
is Gamel’s bat will be ready for Miller Park well before then. Mat’s a
heck of trading chip value in the meantime, though.
BC: Which Brewers prospect (outside of Manny Parra) has the best shot to make the big league squad at some point this season?
Brewerfan.net: You’re going to hear a lot about how reliever
Luis Pena is doing as Nashville’s likely closer in 2008. It’d be a
great story to see him in Milwaukee, because the Brewers signed him as
a 16-year-old out of Venezuela and this will be his 9th year in the
system. He combines a true power arm like Seth McClung (100+ MPH)
without the inevitable wildness, allowed only 50 hits in 68.1 IP last
season and struck out more than a batter an inning while still inducing
a fair number of ground balls. He’s battled some arm issues along the
way, but in an absolute Doug Melvin dream scenario, he’s an inexpensive
prime setup man and eventual closer after this season, freeing up
important cash to be distributed to all the young position player
talent in ‘09.
Thanks for the opportunity to respond to your blog questions. We can hardly contain our excitement at Brewerfan, believe me.