Milwaukee Brewers Blog - Bernie's Crew : Casey McGehee

Coghlan NL Rookie of the Year; McGehee Fifth

Jim Breen — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 20:21:42 GMT

The Baseball Writers Association of America unveiled the 2009 Rookie of the Year awards.

Chris Coghlan of the Florida Marlins (whom you may remember from the June incident with The Happy Youngster at Miller Park) took home the award for the National League. Milwaukee's Casey McGehee finished fifth in the voting.

Coghlan received 17 first-place votes. He led the NL rookies in average (.321), runs (84), hits (162), doubles (31), total bases (232), multi-hit games (51), and on-base percentage (.390). He is the third Marlin to win the award joining Dontrelle Willis in 2003 and Hanley Ramirez in 2006.
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McGehee had a strong September to finish hitting .301 with 16 homers and 66 RBI, but it wasn't too realistic to believe he'd win the award with what Coghlan did and pitchers like Phillies J.A. Happ and Atlanta's Tommy Hanson, who finished second and third in the voting, respectively.

Atlanta right-hander Tommy Hanson took home the award on my ballot last month.

Oakland closer Andrew Bailey won the 2009 Rookie of the Year award in the American League.

Bailey benefited from a stellar .234 BABIP, so a regression may be in the cards for all you avid Fantasy Baseball managers out there. Still, he struck out more than a batter per inning and displayed fine control for a hard-throwing reliever (2.59 BB/9). Opposing hitters only managed a .173 batting average against him.

Andrew Bailey was a stud in 2009.

Brewers Projections: CHONE 2010

Jim Breen — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 18:02:16 GMT

Sean Smith has officially released his 2010 CHONE offensive projections.

The CHONE projections have routinely been cited as one of the two or three top projection systems in baseball. They are admittedly not perfectly accurate, but toiling away in November...CHONE provides us with the best and most fruitful medium to assess 2010 performance.

After a .299/.412/.602 season with the Brewers in 2009, Prince Fielder is once again projected to lead the team offensively. CHONE has the first baseman hitting .292 with a .386 OBP, including 41 home runs and 32 doubles. While not as statistically impressive as his MVP-caliber performance last season, his projected season (combined with Ryan Braun ahead of him) almost single-handedly gives the Crew an average offensive squad.

What type of offense will surround the twin sluggers in the Brewers' batting order? CHONE has some intriguing projections.

Newly acquired center fielder Carlos Gomez is projected to hit .260 with a .324 on-base percentage. That is obviously not an overwhelming statistical line. If Gomez can post a .320 on-base percentage, his superior defense in center should more than make up for the medocrity at the plate.

Doug Melvin sees a plus-plus glove and the potential to develop into a dangerous top-of-the-order bat with his plus-plus speed. The bat is projected to improve from the putrid numbers in 2009, but it will still be his defense in center field that will provide value to the 2010 Milwaukee Brewers.

The interesting aspect of these CHONE projections is that fourth outfielder Jody Gerut is predicted to have a better 2010 at the plate than Carlos Gomez.

Gerut really came on at the plate during the final months of the 2009 season. He finished his stint with the Brewers with a .236/.299/.373 offensive slash line, but he did hit .279/.343/.459 over the second half. CHONE sees that second half success continuing next year. Gerut is projected to post a .270 batting average with a .331 on-base percentage and 13 home runs.

That is an 11-point improvement in OBP from Carlos Gomez's projection. Gerut is also projected to hit seven more home runs and provide more power and extra-base potential in general at the plate.

Including defensive value, however, Gomez should still start in center field if the actual offensive performances mirror CHONE's projections.

Other projections include:

C Jonathan Lucroy: 20 2B, 2 3B, 7 HR -- .251/.339/.383

This is a rather conservative estimate for Lucroy's batting average. CHONE obviously sees his plate discipline as above-average, though, as his on-base percentage is projected to be approximately 90-points higher than his batting average.

With the above projection, Jonathan Lucroy is my 2010 starting catcher. His offensive production will not be overwhelming, but he provides more power than Jason Kendall with a similar walk rate for approximately $4M less. One of my favorite offseason targets for Milwaukee's backup catcher is Gregg Zaun, who is projected to post a .228/.323/.353 offensive slash line. Lucroy is still more productive for much less money.

3B Casey McGehee: 22 2B, 1 3B, 12 HR -- .264/.325/.414

CHONE sees quite the regression for Casey in 2010. If the young man can improve his defense at third base, however, the above offensive production could become passable. Casey was well above-average at third base in 2006 and 2007, according to Sean Smith's TotalZone, but it regressed to average over the last couple of seasons.

We may be talking about a Gamel/McGehee platoon at third base if McGehee regresses as CHONE believes he will in 2010.

SS Alcides Escobar: 20 2B, 5 3B, 4 HR -- .282/.325/.380

The walk rate is projected to improve from its 2009 mark. His power is also respectable, especially for a youngster with a plus-plus glove like Alcides. Escobar was worth a combined +45 runs over the last two seasons at shortstop in the minors, according to TotalZone. A .325 OBP with 20+ doubles and plus-speed is more than acceptable for someone with defensive talent like Alcides.

It should also be noted that Freddy Sanchez signed a two-year, $12M deal with the Giants, but is projected to post a lower walk rate than Alcides Escobar with inferior defense.

CF Lorenzo Cain: 15 2B, 2 3B, 4 HR -- .235/.300/.334

If this is an accurate prognostication of his 2010 season in the big leagues, Lorenzo Cain is nowhere near ready. CHONE has him striking out 82 times in just over 100 games. That mirrors his strikeout rate in the minors, which needs to significantly improve if he seriously entertains ideas of being a productive big leaguer in the near future.

NL Rookie of the Year

Jim Breen — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 13:00:00 GMT

As a member of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance, one of my duties is to vote on a plethora of awards as the season comes to a close.

The NL Rookie of the Year award has been hotly debated throughout the summer, as Casey McGehee has been clamoring for recognition outside the Brew City.

How did he rank?

NL Rookie of the Year

3) Casey McGehee, Milwaukee

2) Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh

1) Tommy Hanson, Atlanta

McGehee had a fine and quite surprising season for the Milwaukee Brewers, racking up a .301 batting average and a .360 OBP. He managed to compile a +2.1 WAR in only 116 games and provided much-needed protection for Prince Fielder in the middle of the Brewers' order.

His production at the plate, however, does not compare to that of Andrew McCutchen of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Though neither were spectacular defensively, McCutchen had similar power numbers, but a higher walk rate and a better on-base percentage (despite a .285 batting average) -- not to mention at a premium defensive position. +3.4 WAR for a rookie in only 108 games is undoubtedly impressive.

The problem was that McCutchen mashed in Pittsburgh, far away from any postseason race.

Tommy Hanson managed to post a 2.89 ERA (3.50 FIP) over a span of 127.2 innings for the Atlanta Braves. He held batters to a low .226 batting average and struck out 8.18 batters per nine innings. In short, he was electric.

What impressed me more, however, was the fact that Hanson improved as Atlanta attempted to secure a postseason berth. In August and September, the 23-year old right-hander compiled a 2.93 and 2.31 ERA, respectively. His strikeout rate jumped significantly, and he began depressing his opponent batting average from a rather high, for him, July (.258).

Hanson was worth +2.6 WAR in 2009 and saved his best performances for when it mattered most for his team. His WAR value may not be as high as that of McCutchen, but his performance came under more pressure-packed circumstances with much more on the line than a .500 record. Hanson established himself as the future ace of the Braves staff, one that saw Derek Lowe not perform up to his offseason contract.

Considering all those circumstances, Tommy Hanson is my NL Rookie of the Year.

Previous Awards:

NL Manager of the Year

JS Player Grades

Jim Breen — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 13:34:55 GMT

The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel recapped and graded the individual performances of every Brewer that saw significant playing time throughout the season.

Grading is extremely subjective, so no "true" grade for any one player exists. Still, some of the grades doled out by the Milwaukee JS were a tad bit misguided and need to be addressed.

Casey McGehee (JS Grade = B)

The article writes that McGehee was the biggest surprise on the team. The former Cubs prospect hit .301 with a .360 OBP, 16 HR, and 66 RBI -- settling in behind Prince in the five hole in the batting order. McGehee finally gave Milwaukee a consistent threat behind Prince. It forced opposing teams to pitch to the young slugger, especially in September, when Casey enjoyed perhaps his finest month at the plate.

My main gripe with the grade is that players such as Alcides Escobar and Claudio Vargas received higher marks. A Rookie of the Year candidate in the National League, especially one who was not expected to contribute to the big league team coming into Spring Training, deserves more than a B grade. He was worth +2.1 WAR in 116 games, for goodness sake.

The only negative coming from McGehee is his defensive performance, which can largely be attributed to a bad stretch in July and bulky knees that severely limited his range. Expect better defense in 2010 from Casey.

Bernie's Crew Grade: A-minus

Rickie Weeks (JS Grade = Incomplete)

Milwaukee's second baseman receives an incomplete, even though he had more plate appearances than players such as Mat Gamel, Alcides Escobar, Frank Catalanotto, and Mike Rivera -- who all received grades.

Then, we got this little gem:

Weeks has worked hard to improve his defense but still rates as a below-average defender.

Rickie compiled a +4.7 UZR in 2009. He may have committed six errors in only two months of work, but his plus-range more than makes up for a careless play or two throughout the season. It is certainly much easier to glance at the error total or his .964 fielding percentage, but his range factor per game was up over 4.5 for the fifth straight season.

There is so much more to defense than the error total.

Bernie's Crew Grade: B

Jody Gerut (JS Grade = D)

Talk about holding a grudge.

The Milwaukee JS chose to ignore Gerut's second half, in which he hit .279/.343/.459, and opted to dwell on his horrible start to his Brewers career.

The "bad" Jody Gerut showed up in Milwaukee for the first two months. The "good" Jody Gerut began to surface once garnering more playing time in the second half. In fact, Gerut outperformed Mike Cameron at the plate over the final two months of the season.

You would never know that from the JS article, though.

Bernie's Crew: C

Dave Bush (JS Grade = D)

It is difficult for me to justify marring Bush's injury-plagued season with a "D" grade.

As Haudricourt and Witrado noted in the article, Bush seemingly had turned a corner on the mound halfway through the 2008 season. From the middle of 2008 to the Florida game, in which he was struck in the arm by a Hanley Ramirez line drive, Bush had compiled a 3.99 ERA in his previous 22 starts. He almost tossed a no-hitter against the Phillies in May of this season.

That line drive, however, marked the downward spiral of his 2009 season.

Bush struggled with microtears in his triceps muscle in his right arm, which caused serious arm fatigue. He attempted to pitch through the injury in June, but eventually landed on the DL with those microtears.

The issues did not improve after returning on August 27th, however.

The right-hander occasionally flipped up a gem of an outing, but he could not maintain his velocity or production from start to start. Milwaukee finally decided to shelf him for the final week of the season due to his arm fatigue. He continuously went in for tests to determine if he had more damage to his arm than previously thought, but doctors kept diagnosing him with the microtears and "dead arm."

Hopefully, an offseason of rest and recuperation will allow Bush to rebound and reclaim his #3 or #4 spot in the rotation. I just simply cannot justify doling out a "D" grade to a pitcher who helped anchor the rotation prior to his injury. The Dave Bush we saw after early June was not the real Dave Bush.

Bernie's Crew Grade: C-minus

Braden Looper (JS Grade = C-plus)

Braden Looper was horrendous in 2009.

His ERA may have been a "shiny" 5.22, but his FIP ballooned to 5.74. Not to mention the fact that he surrendered the most long balls in the National League with 39. His strikeout rate dropped to 4.62 K/9, while his walk rate jumped to 2.96 BB/9.

Braden Looper received a C-plus from the Milwaukee JS because he logged 14 wins and managed to make 34 starts throughout the season. His 8.97 average run support per game made sure he collected 14 wins. It had very little to do with him actually pitching well.

By the way, Looper cost the Brewers almost $4MM in 2009 because he was worth -0.9 WAR. That definitely has "C-plus" written all over it.

Bernie's Crew Grade: D-plus

Seth McClung (JS Grade = D-plus)

If we throw out the 7.1 innings in which the Milwaukee Brewers misguidedly placed McClung in the starting rotation, the big right-hander compiled a 3.95 ERA in 54.2 innings.

Does McClung seriously deserve a "D-plus" for seven innings of work in the starting rotation (can we declare that experiment officially over?) and an injured elbow in the second half?

Obviously not. He was a very useful cog in the Brewers' bullpen, going multiple innings and providing Ken Macha with a rare power-arm. Remember, McClung owned a 3.24 ERA on June 24. Milwaukee simply needs to learn how to utilize Seth properly. You would think after two years they would have it down by now.

Bernie's Crew Grade: C-plus

A Trip to the Infirmary

Jim Breen — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 15:54:21 GMT

Now that the Milwaukee Brewers have officially completed their 2009 season, news of more and more players with minor injuries continue to come to light.

Casey McGehee will undergo surgery this afternoon to clean out some "loose bodies" from his right knee. The potential NL Rookie of the Year has been playing through the pain since the All-Star Break, but the knee problems significantly lessened his range at third and his speed on the basepaths. With a .301 average and 16 home runs, it did not seem to affect him much at the plate.

The surgery is a minor procedure with no ill effects lingering into the 2010 season. McGehee should return with no pain in his knee whatsoever.

Braden Looper is scheduled to have surgery next week to fix some torn meniscus in his right knee.

"I tried the best I can to get the ball down because that's my whole game," Looper said Saturday. "I don't know [if the knee played a part in pitches staying up]. I know I haven't been as consistent this year. That's the thing that upsets me, I hope that [the knee] didn't cause that."

With 39 home runs and 113 earned runs surrendered throughout the season, it is unlikely that the knee caused that type of production. The numbers are not consistent with his career norms. If the knee would have been an issue during the season, you can be sure Ken Macha would have sat Looper for a start or two.

To blame a terrible season on a knee problem (or to hint that a bum knee caused it) is a huge cop-out. If it were actually a problem, he should have sat out a couple weeks in May and addressed the issue.

Craig Counsell has been battling a similar injury to that of Braden Looper, but Brewers fans heard about Counsell's knee troubles during Spring Training.

The utility fielder opted for rehabilitation rather than surgery and played through the pain throughout the season. It lead to a .285/.357/.408 season, which marked his best production since 2000 at the plate. Counsell changed his mind about the surgery, however, and is scheduled in the next week to undergo a minor operation to clean out his knee.

Counsell is an impending free agent, but it is almost a foregone conclusion that Milwaukee will make every attempt to resign the 39-year old Counsell during the offseason.

Manny Parra is a new name to add to the injury report, as he is scheduled for surgery today to "clean up his AC joint" in his left shoulder.

Before panicking too much and reminiscing over past shoulder issues, Gord Ash says the issue is minor and not related to his previous injuries in the minor leagues. The shoulder discomfort is also not thought to have contributed to his 6.36 ERA in 2009. His velocity was there. It was simply the lack of command that led to a 5.0 BB/9 walk rate and a general frustration throughout the Brewers fanbase.

Corey Hart was thought to have broken his ring and pinkie fingers after sliding into Todd Helton's foot during the final week of the regular season, but it has recently been determined that Hart only severely sprained his two digits.

He will not require surgery, and a rehabilitation program should return him to full health in short order.

Mark DiFelice continues to struggle with inflammation in his right shoulder, an injury that has kept him from game action since September 13th.

The cutter specialist recently sought out a second opinion to determine if surgery was required, but a specialist in Colorado confirmed Dr. Raasch's original diagnosis that rest and rehabilitation should eventually cure the issue.

The real issue is whether or not DiFelice's shoulder can every truly heal due to his severe slinging motion in his pitching delivery. During the second half of the season (when elbow and shoulder issues began to crop up), the right-hander posted a 7.27 ERA and a .333 opponent batting average. I am hesitant to even assure the fact that DiFelice will return in 2010. That is not a guarantee, due to his shoulder injury.

Rickie Weeks had been participating in defensive drills throughout the last couple weeks of the regular season, but his torn tendon sheath in his left wrist was still not strong enough to take swings against live pitching.

The 27-year old seemingly had turned a corner in 2009, sprinting out to a .272/.340/.517 slash line through the first two months of the season. Those numbers included nine home runs, a .245 ISO, and a +4.7 UZR at second base.

Rickie will look to continue that success in 2010, despite rumors that Milwaukee could try the young man in center field to replace Mike Cameron. He has already made his dislike of the idea well-known to the Brewers brass.

Mike Burns has the worst injury of the bunch.

An MRI revealed that Burns has damage to his labrum in his right shoulder. That probably signifies rather significant surgery and a lengthy rehabilitation process.

The 30-year old journeyman was going to have a difficult time making the Brewers 25-man roster out of Spring Training, especially due to his 5.75 ERA in 51.2 innings with the big league club. This injury and the uncertainty surrounding it makes it even more unlikely that Milwaukee keeps the right-hander on their 40-man roster heading into 2010.

Ryan Braun has dealt with intercostal issues throughout the past two seasons, but that issue seems to have died down during the second half of the 2009 season.

Instead, Braun missed some time down the stretch due to an injured shoulder. The injury appears to be extremely minor and could actually be completely healed at this point, but Braun's injuries tend to linger for a long, long time.

The offseason should help alleviate any aches and pains the Brewers superstar is currently dealing with. He should be set to come into Spring Training next February and mash from the get-go.

Dave Bush had a 4.38 ERA heading into a June 4th game against the Florida Marlins.

It was in that contest that Bush took a line drive off his right triceps muscle off the bat of Hanley Ramirez. From that point on, Dave Bush was not the same pitcher he was prior to the injury. He dealt with microtears in his triceps muscle, which contributed to the severe arm fatigue he suffered through in August and September.

As noted previously, prior to the injury, Bush had a 4.38 ERA and almost threw a no-hitter against the Philadelphia Phillies. Following the injury, Bush ended the season with a 6.38 ERA.

David Riske has one season left on his $13MM contract, but is likely to miss the beginning to 2010 due to Tommy John surgery on his right elbow.

The right-hander only made one appearance for the Crew in 2009. He surrendered four hits and two runs in one inning of work.

That followed a 5.31 ERA in 2008, so needless to say, Doug Melvin and his crew may have made a bit of an error in judgment handing out a three-year, $13MM deal to Riske. Overpaying on long-term contracts severely hurt small-market teams. They hurt even more when those contracts are for middle relievers who can be had for much, much cheaper.