Milwaukee Brewers Blog - Bernie's Crew : Dave Bush

JS Player Grades

Jim Breen — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 13:34:55 GMT

The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel recapped and graded the individual performances of every Brewer that saw significant playing time throughout the season.

Grading is extremely subjective, so no "true" grade for any one player exists. Still, some of the grades doled out by the Milwaukee JS were a tad bit misguided and need to be addressed.

Casey McGehee (JS Grade = B)

The article writes that McGehee was the biggest surprise on the team. The former Cubs prospect hit .301 with a .360 OBP, 16 HR, and 66 RBI -- settling in behind Prince in the five hole in the batting order. McGehee finally gave Milwaukee a consistent threat behind Prince. It forced opposing teams to pitch to the young slugger, especially in September, when Casey enjoyed perhaps his finest month at the plate.

My main gripe with the grade is that players such as Alcides Escobar and Claudio Vargas received higher marks. A Rookie of the Year candidate in the National League, especially one who was not expected to contribute to the big league team coming into Spring Training, deserves more than a B grade. He was worth +2.1 WAR in 116 games, for goodness sake.

The only negative coming from McGehee is his defensive performance, which can largely be attributed to a bad stretch in July and bulky knees that severely limited his range. Expect better defense in 2010 from Casey.

Bernie's Crew Grade: A-minus

Rickie Weeks (JS Grade = Incomplete)

Milwaukee's second baseman receives an incomplete, even though he had more plate appearances than players such as Mat Gamel, Alcides Escobar, Frank Catalanotto, and Mike Rivera -- who all received grades.

Then, we got this little gem:

Weeks has worked hard to improve his defense but still rates as a below-average defender.

Rickie compiled a +4.7 UZR in 2009. He may have committed six errors in only two months of work, but his plus-range more than makes up for a careless play or two throughout the season. It is certainly much easier to glance at the error total or his .964 fielding percentage, but his range factor per game was up over 4.5 for the fifth straight season.

There is so much more to defense than the error total.

Bernie's Crew Grade: B

Jody Gerut (JS Grade = D)

Talk about holding a grudge.

The Milwaukee JS chose to ignore Gerut's second half, in which he hit .279/.343/.459, and opted to dwell on his horrible start to his Brewers career.

The "bad" Jody Gerut showed up in Milwaukee for the first two months. The "good" Jody Gerut began to surface once garnering more playing time in the second half. In fact, Gerut outperformed Mike Cameron at the plate over the final two months of the season.

You would never know that from the JS article, though.

Bernie's Crew: C

Dave Bush (JS Grade = D)

It is difficult for me to justify marring Bush's injury-plagued season with a "D" grade.

As Haudricourt and Witrado noted in the article, Bush seemingly had turned a corner on the mound halfway through the 2008 season. From the middle of 2008 to the Florida game, in which he was struck in the arm by a Hanley Ramirez line drive, Bush had compiled a 3.99 ERA in his previous 22 starts. He almost tossed a no-hitter against the Phillies in May of this season.

That line drive, however, marked the downward spiral of his 2009 season.

Bush struggled with microtears in his triceps muscle in his right arm, which caused serious arm fatigue. He attempted to pitch through the injury in June, but eventually landed on the DL with those microtears.

The issues did not improve after returning on August 27th, however.

The right-hander occasionally flipped up a gem of an outing, but he could not maintain his velocity or production from start to start. Milwaukee finally decided to shelf him for the final week of the season due to his arm fatigue. He continuously went in for tests to determine if he had more damage to his arm than previously thought, but doctors kept diagnosing him with the microtears and "dead arm."

Hopefully, an offseason of rest and recuperation will allow Bush to rebound and reclaim his #3 or #4 spot in the rotation. I just simply cannot justify doling out a "D" grade to a pitcher who helped anchor the rotation prior to his injury. The Dave Bush we saw after early June was not the real Dave Bush.

Bernie's Crew Grade: C-minus

Braden Looper (JS Grade = C-plus)

Braden Looper was horrendous in 2009.

His ERA may have been a "shiny" 5.22, but his FIP ballooned to 5.74. Not to mention the fact that he surrendered the most long balls in the National League with 39. His strikeout rate dropped to 4.62 K/9, while his walk rate jumped to 2.96 BB/9.

Braden Looper received a C-plus from the Milwaukee JS because he logged 14 wins and managed to make 34 starts throughout the season. His 8.97 average run support per game made sure he collected 14 wins. It had very little to do with him actually pitching well.

By the way, Looper cost the Brewers almost $4MM in 2009 because he was worth -0.9 WAR. That definitely has "C-plus" written all over it.

Bernie's Crew Grade: D-plus

Seth McClung (JS Grade = D-plus)

If we throw out the 7.1 innings in which the Milwaukee Brewers misguidedly placed McClung in the starting rotation, the big right-hander compiled a 3.95 ERA in 54.2 innings.

Does McClung seriously deserve a "D-plus" for seven innings of work in the starting rotation (can we declare that experiment officially over?) and an injured elbow in the second half?

Obviously not. He was a very useful cog in the Brewers' bullpen, going multiple innings and providing Ken Macha with a rare power-arm. Remember, McClung owned a 3.24 ERA on June 24. Milwaukee simply needs to learn how to utilize Seth properly. You would think after two years they would have it down by now.

Bernie's Crew Grade: C-plus

A Trip to the Infirmary

Jim Breen — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 15:54:21 GMT

Now that the Milwaukee Brewers have officially completed their 2009 season, news of more and more players with minor injuries continue to come to light.

Casey McGehee will undergo surgery this afternoon to clean out some "loose bodies" from his right knee. The potential NL Rookie of the Year has been playing through the pain since the All-Star Break, but the knee problems significantly lessened his range at third and his speed on the basepaths. With a .301 average and 16 home runs, it did not seem to affect him much at the plate.

The surgery is a minor procedure with no ill effects lingering into the 2010 season. McGehee should return with no pain in his knee whatsoever.

Braden Looper is scheduled to have surgery next week to fix some torn meniscus in his right knee.

"I tried the best I can to get the ball down because that's my whole game," Looper said Saturday. "I don't know [if the knee played a part in pitches staying up]. I know I haven't been as consistent this year. That's the thing that upsets me, I hope that [the knee] didn't cause that."

With 39 home runs and 113 earned runs surrendered throughout the season, it is unlikely that the knee caused that type of production. The numbers are not consistent with his career norms. If the knee would have been an issue during the season, you can be sure Ken Macha would have sat Looper for a start or two.

To blame a terrible season on a knee problem (or to hint that a bum knee caused it) is a huge cop-out. If it were actually a problem, he should have sat out a couple weeks in May and addressed the issue.

Craig Counsell has been battling a similar injury to that of Braden Looper, but Brewers fans heard about Counsell's knee troubles during Spring Training.

The utility fielder opted for rehabilitation rather than surgery and played through the pain throughout the season. It lead to a .285/.357/.408 season, which marked his best production since 2000 at the plate. Counsell changed his mind about the surgery, however, and is scheduled in the next week to undergo a minor operation to clean out his knee.

Counsell is an impending free agent, but it is almost a foregone conclusion that Milwaukee will make every attempt to resign the 39-year old Counsell during the offseason.

Manny Parra is a new name to add to the injury report, as he is scheduled for surgery today to "clean up his AC joint" in his left shoulder.

Before panicking too much and reminiscing over past shoulder issues, Gord Ash says the issue is minor and not related to his previous injuries in the minor leagues. The shoulder discomfort is also not thought to have contributed to his 6.36 ERA in 2009. His velocity was there. It was simply the lack of command that led to a 5.0 BB/9 walk rate and a general frustration throughout the Brewers fanbase.

Corey Hart was thought to have broken his ring and pinkie fingers after sliding into Todd Helton's foot during the final week of the regular season, but it has recently been determined that Hart only severely sprained his two digits.

He will not require surgery, and a rehabilitation program should return him to full health in short order.

Mark DiFelice continues to struggle with inflammation in his right shoulder, an injury that has kept him from game action since September 13th.

The cutter specialist recently sought out a second opinion to determine if surgery was required, but a specialist in Colorado confirmed Dr. Raasch's original diagnosis that rest and rehabilitation should eventually cure the issue.

The real issue is whether or not DiFelice's shoulder can every truly heal due to his severe slinging motion in his pitching delivery. During the second half of the season (when elbow and shoulder issues began to crop up), the right-hander posted a 7.27 ERA and a .333 opponent batting average. I am hesitant to even assure the fact that DiFelice will return in 2010. That is not a guarantee, due to his shoulder injury.

Rickie Weeks had been participating in defensive drills throughout the last couple weeks of the regular season, but his torn tendon sheath in his left wrist was still not strong enough to take swings against live pitching.

The 27-year old seemingly had turned a corner in 2009, sprinting out to a .272/.340/.517 slash line through the first two months of the season. Those numbers included nine home runs, a .245 ISO, and a +4.7 UZR at second base.

Rickie will look to continue that success in 2010, despite rumors that Milwaukee could try the young man in center field to replace Mike Cameron. He has already made his dislike of the idea well-known to the Brewers brass.

Mike Burns has the worst injury of the bunch.

An MRI revealed that Burns has damage to his labrum in his right shoulder. That probably signifies rather significant surgery and a lengthy rehabilitation process.

The 30-year old journeyman was going to have a difficult time making the Brewers 25-man roster out of Spring Training, especially due to his 5.75 ERA in 51.2 innings with the big league club. This injury and the uncertainty surrounding it makes it even more unlikely that Milwaukee keeps the right-hander on their 40-man roster heading into 2010.

Ryan Braun has dealt with intercostal issues throughout the past two seasons, but that issue seems to have died down during the second half of the 2009 season.

Instead, Braun missed some time down the stretch due to an injured shoulder. The injury appears to be extremely minor and could actually be completely healed at this point, but Braun's injuries tend to linger for a long, long time.

The offseason should help alleviate any aches and pains the Brewers superstar is currently dealing with. He should be set to come into Spring Training next February and mash from the get-go.

Dave Bush had a 4.38 ERA heading into a June 4th game against the Florida Marlins.

It was in that contest that Bush took a line drive off his right triceps muscle off the bat of Hanley Ramirez. From that point on, Dave Bush was not the same pitcher he was prior to the injury. He dealt with microtears in his triceps muscle, which contributed to the severe arm fatigue he suffered through in August and September.

As noted previously, prior to the injury, Bush had a 4.38 ERA and almost threw a no-hitter against the Philadelphia Phillies. Following the injury, Bush ended the season with a 6.38 ERA.

David Riske has one season left on his $13MM contract, but is likely to miss the beginning to 2010 due to Tommy John surgery on his right elbow.

The right-hander only made one appearance for the Crew in 2009. He surrendered four hits and two runs in one inning of work.

That followed a 5.31 ERA in 2008, so needless to say, Doug Melvin and his crew may have made a bit of an error in judgment handing out a three-year, $13MM deal to Riske. Overpaying on long-term contracts severely hurt small-market teams. They hurt even more when those contracts are for middle relievers who can be had for much, much cheaper.

Bush Still Not 100 Percent

Jim Breen — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 04:33:30 GMT

The Chicago Cubs laid an old-fashioned whooping on Dave Bush on Tuesday night, scoring six runs (five earned) in only an inning and a third.

While one can easily dismiss the outing as yet another example of the right-hander's inconsistencies on the mound, there may be a more unsettling underpinning to Bush's struggles his last two times out.

Isolate only his '09 numbers since returning from the disabled list.

The outing in which he had the highest spike in velocity marked a seven inning gem against the St. Louis Cardinals. Bush only gave up two runs and only needed 97 pitches to reach that plateau. More importantly, his velocity had jumped significantly from his previous outings.

Look at the very next outing, however. His velocity depressed to what appears to be 86-87 MPH, which is below average for Bush. That velocity dip suggests arm fatigue, something extremely common given his biceps injury.

Fast forwarding to Tuesday's action against Chicago, Bush only managed to average 87.7 MPH on his fastball. That is higher than his previous mark on the graph above, but the mark is still a couple of MPHs lower than his average last season. It seems that when his velocity decreases, his effectiveness follows suit. That is what statisticians refer to as a direct correlation.

If Dave Bush were issuing four walks and surrendering six runs in just over an inning of work while throwing 88-90 MPH with consistency, I would be concerned. His velocity is not reaching his career norms with any regularity, however. That suggests his injury is still affecting his pitching on the mound.

This is not an excuse, but simply a possible explanation for Bush's struggles against the Cubs in his last two appearances. It remains to be seen whether Bush can pitch through the issue like the doctors suggested following his return from the DL, but the offseason will be a welcome respite for the injured and fatigued right arm of Dave Bush.

A Tale of Two Pitchers

Jim Breen — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 13:17:35 GMT

The Brewers fell to the St. Louis Cardinals as Chris Carpenter spun an absolute gem in a complete game, one-hit performance.

The lone hit for Milwaukee came on an opposite-field double to left by Jody Gerut. As an aside, Jody Gerut quietly put together a fine month of August, hitting .278/.381/.500 with two home runs and more walks than strikeouts. The 2008 version of Jody Gerut, the one for which Doug Melvin meant to trade, resurfaced for a month or so.

Carpenter only needed 99 pitches to complete the one-hit shutout. He managed to work quickly and remain efficient with his pitches, despite striking out 10 batters. To top it off, the 34-year old right-hander induced 12 groundouts compared to 5 flyouts.

In short, Chris Carpenter was nothing short of dominate on the mound.

Dave Bush attempted to stick with him pitch-for-pitch, but could not sneak a 1-1 fastball past Albert Pujols. The Cardinals' first baseman smashed a low-inside fastball over the head of Corey Patterson in center field. That plated Skip Schumaker and Brendan Ryan for the only two runs Bush surrendered all day.

Look at the location of that fastball. One a 1-1 count with two outs, it is difficult to fault the pitch location from Bushie. Low-inside corner on a two-seam fastball with movement in on a right-handed hitter? Sounds good.

He was simply facing the best hitter in baseball. Sometimes, Albert can drive good pitches with authority, which is what he did in the top of the fifth inning.

Those three runs in the fifth were all that Chris Carpenter needed.

Tom Haudricourt notes that prior to the line drive that Bush took off the arm in Florida this summer, he was putting up some impressive numbers on the mound.

Over the past couple of weeks, when Dave Bush has been getting pummeled, I've received e-mails and have seen comments on this blog that the Brewers should give up on him, that he's never been any good.

Well, that's not true. I looked up his numbers from the middle of last season, when he really turned the corner, to before he was struck by a line drive on his pitching arm on June 4 of this season, and they were pretty good.

Today, Bush looked more like the pitcher who went 10-4 with a 3.56 ERA over 28 games, dating to last season, before being struck by the line drive in Florida. In six starts since suffering that triceps injury, he was 0-5 with an 11.73 ERA.

Team doctors say that Bush will likely not be 100% healthy for the rest of the season. He is still dealing with some scar tissue that is breaking up, but that remains part of the rehabilitation process for a micro-tear injury. The fact that Bushie can twirl seven innings of two-run ball against a potent offense like that of the Cardinals with only 85% health is impressive.

How did he do it?

Not only does Dave Bush throw everything but the kitchen sink, but every pitch he throws (save the changeup) has a lot of movement. His fastball moves almost a foot in to right-handers. That movement is how he can remain effective working up in the zone.

The Milwaukee Brewers may have dropped a game to the Cardinals, but the organization as a whole received some very encouraging news. The pre-injury Dave Bush may be back in Milwaukee.

It's Time for Statistical Regression Already

Jim Breen — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 16:23:00 GMT

Milwaukee dropped yet another game to the Pittsburgh Pirates last night, 5-2.

The offense could not figure out right-hander Russ Ohlendorf, as the former Yankee prospect tossed seven one-run innings for his eleventh win of the season. His fastball was consistently in the 93-94 MPH range. He flashed a pretty good changeup from time to time. Prince Fielder may have connected on a solo shot in the second inning, but the Home Run Derby champion looked rather foolish on his next two at-bats.

Manny Parra did not possess his best stuff on Tuesday evening. He still did manage to cover six frames, while only giving up three earned runs. Three of those runs came on two home runs -- one by Lastings Milledge and one by Delwyn Young.

Tuesday's game marked yet another contest in which the Brewers' pitching staff was crippled by the long ball.

It has become a disturbing trend for the starting rotation. Every pitcher in the rotation is serving up more home runs than they have in their entire career. Take a look at the rates:

2009 HR/9                         Career HR/9
Yovani Gallardo:               1.00 HR/9                            0.88 HR/9
Manny Parra:                     1.11 HR/9                            0.97 HR/9
Braden Looper:                 1.89 HR/9                           0.98 HR/9
Jeff Suppan:                      1.42 HR/9                           1.19 HR/9
Dave Bush:                        2.00 HR/9                           1.32 HR/9
Carlos Villanueva:             1.60 HR/9                           1.41 HR/9

These numbers call for a serious statistical regression, one that would significantly improve the Brewers' pitching staff and the organization as a whole. The law of averages, especially for seasoned veterans such as Looper and Suppan, suggests that their home run rates would be the first to regress to their respective career norms.

The frustrating aspect of the 2009 starting rotation is that every pitcher (other than Gallardo) is pitching below their statistical norm. While statistics can only tell a person what one can expect throughout an entire season of work, the 30+ start sample size is large enough that most pitchers eventually regress to the mean.

There are obvious one-year exceptions, however. It just seems odd that all six of the Brewers' starting pitchers are having terrible seasons. Is it simply a coincidence? Have the Brewers fallen victim to bad luck? Or was Bill Castro truly detrimental to the rotation? The latter would suggest that improvement is quickly approaching with Chris Bosio.

Unfortunately, blaming Bill Castro seems to easy. It is likely that Milwaukee has fallen victim to some serious bad luck this season. Either that, or every Brewers' pitcher became infinitely more homer-prone in just one offseason.