Milwaukee Brewers Blog - Bernie's Crew : J.J. Hardy

Pirates Offered Capps for Hardy

Jim Breen — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 20:45:34 GMT

Dejan Kovacevic writes the Pittsburgh Pirates offered struggling closer Matt Capps for shortstop J.J. Hardy.

...why would anyone take that trade?

Gomez Trade Reactions: Top 15 Quotations

Jim Breen — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 18:10:50 GMT

Honorable Mention #2: "The Brewers asked for either Clay Buchholz or Daniel Bard, two prized young pitchers the Red Sox wouldn't part with. Boston apparently offered pitcher Michael Bowden but the Brewers weren't interested." -- Tom Haudricourt

Honorable Mention #1: "The joy and athleticism he shows in that picture captures everything good about Gomez for me. And I'm saying this because I've just reread the story that you're about to read and it sounds like I'm anti-Gomez. I'm not. I liked him. But he wasn't any good." -- Twins Geek

#15: "On the plus side, he did improve his walk rate markedly in '09. But for a player as athletic and tooled as Gomez, rapid development at the plate is not out of the question. A double-plus runner, Gomez has wiped 59 bases in 80 career attempts (74 percent) and he ranked as the rangiest center fielder in the game in '08, according to the Fielding Bible. He features above-average arm strength, to boot." -- Baseball America

#14: "My initial reaction is that I'm very sorry to see Gomez go, as he was a personal favorite, and I'm very concerned about the team's outfield defense over the next few seasons. But perhaps the writing was on the wall during a month of September in which the Twins were making a fierce charge and Gomez was seeing virtually no playing time." -- Nick's Twins Blog

#13: "Melvin didn't even touch the pitching staff with his biggest trading chip, and downgraded the offense. Sure, the extra savings from Hardy to Escobar and Cameron to Gomez give the Brewers some money to throw at a free agent pitcher. But that's not the logical way to look at it." -- Brew Crew Ball

#12: "Overall, I think both teams will end up happy with the players they have acquired. I am almost certain that the Brewers' and Twins' pitchers will approve." -- Beyond the Box Score

#11: "The down side is that one injury, and this kid is toast. He can’t move over to a corner. You’ve just got to hope he learns how to hit (unlikely) or stays healthy." -- Sabernomics

#10: "J.J. Hardy is a good player who had a down year. I'm not sure what Carlos Gomez is. Thus far, a pretty big underachiever." -- Tom Haudricourt

#9: "All of which isn't to suggest that Gomez is destined for stardom, but rather that he's way closer to being a good, solid starter than most people think. He doesn't need to be a great hitter to have big-time value because he's a great fielder." -- Aaron Gleeman

#8: "The acquisition of Carlos Gomez is a shrewd move by GM Doug Melvin. Gomez is still young and raw, but he has fantastic tools and is one of the fastest players in baseball today. But Gomez gives GM Doug Melvin tons of options moving forward this offseason." -- Jorge Says No!

#7: "At first, I was incredulous over this deal, believing Hardy should have been shopped for a pitcher. While I still feel the Twins come ahead in the deal, I've come to realize that shipping Hardy out for a bat is actually rather logical. It's far easier to get a position player in a deal than a pitcher, especially ones of like talent. Even if Gomez is the equivalent of a 5.00 ERA pitcher, the latter comes with a higher price tag." -- Evan Brunell, The Hardball Times

#6: "The deal has the potential to look very good for the Twins if Hardy can regain his pre-2009 form, but that “if” is as big as Hardy’s 6-2, 190-pound frame." -- Joe Christensen, Star Tribune

#5: "But this deal is confirmation that Gomez, the supposed jewel of the Santana trade, was an abject bust, a raw talent who displayed no ability to refine his skills. I liked the guy, liked that he played hard, loved the way he went after balls in the outfield, but his approach at the plate and his knuckleheaded plays doomed his Twins career." -- Jim Souhan, Star Tribune

#4: "But what a zero, offensively! Yes, he's just now turning 24. But however young, you'd like to see a bit of progress, right? Gomez's seasonal OBPs: .288, .296, .287. That looks like a guy who just doesn't get it, at all. Sure, he did much better while still just a baby in both Double- and Triple-A, but those seasons are starting to seem like a long time ago." -- Rob Neyer, ESPN

#3: "Carlos Gomez has talent, the greatest of which is raw speed. He also has the baseball instincts of an Icelandic grade-schooler. As wonderful as he was to watch play center field, Gomez was a disaster everywhere else. He was clueless in the batter's box." -- Tom Powers, Pioneer Press

#2: "To acquire Hardy, the Twins gave up Gomez, an outstanding defender in his own right. Milwaukee apparently wanted a premium defender to replace Mike Cameron in center field, but they’re taking a pretty big hit offensively in the swap. Gomez strikes out too often to make the slap hitting gig work, and his inability to bunt himself on base in 2009 caused his average to sink to unacceptable levels." -- Dave Cameron, FanGraphs

#1: "[T]he Brewers demanded either Clay Buchholz or Daniel Bard and wouldn't budge. The notion that you would stick to a demand for two of the top prospects around and then settle with another team for a replacement value player is completely bizarre. It's like going to Tony's with a $20 bill, demanding the duck, and when they refuse to sell you a $40 duck entree for $20, spending the whole thing on a day old loaf of bread." -- Viva El Birdos

Gomez An Underwhelming Return For Hardy

Jim Breen — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 00:32:03 GMT

When reading the Royals acquired second baseman Chris Getz and third baseman Josh Fields from the White Sox for utilityman Mark Teahan, my expectations for what Doug Melvin could demand in return for J.J. Hardy increased significantly.

Hardy for underachieving center fielder Carlos Gomez of the Minnesota Twins does not qualify as meeting my expectations.

Gomez is one of the fastest players in Major League Baseball, stealing 33 bases for the Twins in 2008. He plays a fantastic center field and will succeed Mike Cameron's defense quite well. Not to mention he only turns 24-years old next month and has four years of team control remaining on his contract.

The potential is obvious. Gomez hit .287/.366/.412 in 2007 for the Mets' Triple-A affiliate and .281/.350/.423 in 2006 during his stint in Double-A. His ISO power was respectable in the minor leagues, which is huge for a player with as much speed as Gomez.

Since joining the Twins following the Johan Santana trade prior to the 2008 season, however, Carlos Gomez cannot be classified as anything other than a work-in-progress.

For a player that supremely relies on speed at the plate, a .246 career batting average with a .292 career on-base percentage is awful. He only managed to hit three home runs in 315 at-bats last season, so the slugging percentage is also nothing to get excited about. Even on the basepaths, Carlos Gomez had a 33% caught stealing rate -- awful for one of the fastest players in the bigs.

Dave Cameron says:

Even with his elite range in the outfield, Gomez is going to have to improve offensively in order to be worth a starting job. With infields taking away the bunt, he’s going to have to get himself on base in other ways, because it’s nearly impossible to justify starting an outfielder with a .286 career wOBA when you’re trying to make the playoffs.

Tom Haudricourt tweets:

J.J. Hardy is a good player who had a down year. I'm not sure what Carlos Gomez is. Thus far, a pretty big underachiever.

The Ghost of Moonlight Graham opines:

For the Twins to get a shortstop of the caliber of Hardy for a fourth outfielder who manager Ron Gardenhire wanted to strangle half the time is a steal in my opinion.

Even Rob Neyer, who actually likes the move for the Brewers, writes about Carlos Gomez:

But what a zero, offensively! Yes, he's just now turning 24. But however young, you'd like to see a bit of progress, right? Gomez's seasonal OBPs: .288, .296, .287. That looks like a guy who just doesn't get it, at all. Sure, he did much better while still just a baby in both Double- and Triple-A, but those seasons are starting to seem like a long time ago.

Carlos Gomez is a young player who swings at too many pitches at the plate. This handcuffs him from taking too many walks and also causes quite a high strikeout rate. From personal experience, Gomez also rarely makes solid contact at the plate, either.

In all aspects, he is a black hole offensively.

Milwaukee simply hopes that the 24-year old suddenly "gets it" next season with the Brewers. There are very few statistical markers that suggest Gomez will suddenly hit in 2010, other than his minor league numbers. But as Neyer said in the quotation above, those minor-league days are beginning to seem like a long time ago.

Defensively, however, Gomez provides tons of value.

This move signifies an organizational commitment to defense. In 2008, Gomez posted a +16.5 UZR. Mike Cameron has never posted above an +11 UZR since joining the Milwaukee Brewers and has never posted a superior defensive season in his career.

A defender such as Carlos Gomez in center field should help improve the starting pitching staff indirectly. It seems Doug Melvin is attempting to take a page out of Jack Zduriencik's book in Seattle by stockpiling plus defenders up the middle. Seattle has Franklin Gutierrez and Jack Wilson, while Milwaukee now has Alcides Escobar and Carlos Gomez. Seattle enjoyed a nice uptick in their winning percentage as their defense improved. Milwaukee is hoping to jump on the bandwagon.

The Carlos Gomez acquisition frees up approximately $13-14M of payroll for the starting rotation. I am a bit concerned that Doug Melvin could misguidedly allocate that chunk of change to a pitcher such as Jarrod Washburn or Joel Pineiro, but an expanding budget is rarely a negative for a small-market GM.

The Brewers picked up a fantastic defender at a premium defensive position with four years of team control remaining on his contract. They also got a dynamic and exciting speed player that could become an impact player with a bit more plate discipline.

Given his major league history, however, that does not seem likely in 2010. A young player could suddenly "get it" in a new environment, but to trade one of the organization's most valuable trade pieces for a such a raw (and non-improving) offensive player is puzzling -- especially given the organizational need for pitching.

Carlos Gomez may have the more exciting tools and potential than many of the potential deals offered to Doug Melvin, but that does not mean he is not extremely underwhelming as a return for J.J. Hardy. Milwaukee now has a question mark in center field to go along with the beaten and battered starting rotation. Put me down as not a fan of this deal.

Watching Gomez roam center field and put up a double-digit UZR season will be a joy, but it will certainly not outweigh his low-contact, high-strikeout approach at the plate.

Doug Melvin could have done better. It is almost impossible for me to believe that Doug Melvin could not have done better than simply Carlos Gomez.

Trade Winds: Is Glen Perkins for J.J. Hardy Enough?

Jim Breen — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 13:00:00 GMT

A single day following the conclusion of the 2009 World Series, the J.J. Hardy rumor mill has already begun churning.

Charley Walters of The Pioneer Press speculates that the Twins could come calling if the organization fails to resign Orlando Cabrera in the coming weeks. Walters also speculates that starting pitcher Glen Perkins would be a logical starting point in the negotiations.

Brewers fans then have to ask is Glen Perkins a sufficient return for J.J. Hardy?

Perkins is a left-hander who features a 89-91 MPH fastball with an 81-82 MPH slider and a changeup with solid velocity differential at 81-82 MPH. He originally threw a curveball instead of a slider when progressing through the Twins system, but seemingly opted for a slider beginning in 2008. The move came after Perkins spent 112 days on the DL with a left shoulder strain in 2007. I am unaware if the injury triggered the change to a slider, but the timeline coincides nicely.

John Sickels (h/t badger80) wrote in 2008 that Perkins' minor league strikeout numbers have yet to transfer to the big leagues. Sickels believed that if the strikeouts could jump, Perkins' effectiveness on the mound would obviously follow suit due to his above-average control on the mound.

Looking at the numbers, the southpaw struck out 4.41 batters per nine innings on his way to a 4.41 ERA in 151 innings two seasons ago. The end results were encouraging for a pitcher with less than a year in the big leagues, but his Fielding Independent ERA (FIP) was 5.14. Even Jeff Suppan missed more bats in 2008.

The strikeout numbers did not increase this past season, either.

In fact, his strikeout rate dropped to 4.20 K/9 in 2009. Perkins rode that low strikeout rate and a .306 opponent batting average to a 5.89 ERA. His velocity also decreased approximately one MPH on all of his pitches.

His 2009 season was also marred by numerous injuries.

Perkins missed time due to shoulder tendinitis, elbow neuritis in his ulnar nerve, and a contusion on his right thigh. He was thus limited to only seventeen starts and 96.1 innings last season.

While the left-hander may not have missed significant time with any one injury, the specific injuries to his throwing shoulder and elbow should give one pause. These maladies are an indication that a more serious injury could be around the corner -- especially when considering that Perkins lost velocity last season.

All of this is not to say Perkins does not have value.

The 26-year old owns a career 2.36 BB/9 walk rate in the big leagues. Perhaps more importantly, he is also controllable for a bit over four more years, if my math serves me correctly. A young, controllable pitcher with a minor league track record of high strikeout rates and superb command and big league experience is valuable to an organization.

The issue is that Perkins does not have enough value to land J.J. Hardy on his own. Nor does he have the value to be a legitimate centerpiece to a deal.

When crafting a trade package, the centerpiece should not be a pitcher with severe injury risks and a track record of extremely low strikeout rates in the big leagues. The potential to be a #3 starter is clearly there, but well beneath the surface. He would have to buck a string of arm injuries and 281.2 innings of big league pitching with a 4.63 K/9 strikeout rate.

That is a significant trend to break.

And given the early trades of the offseason that is now upon us, Glen Perkins alone would not be an adequate return for a player of J.J. Hardy's caliber.

The Red Sox acquired Jeremy Hermida for a Triple-A LOOGY in Hunter Jones and a promising young left-hander in Jose Alverez. Not exactly ground breaking, but the Marlins acquired a useful bullpen piece in Jones and a nice pitching prospect in Alverez for Hermida -- a player who has posted a 0.1 and 0.3 WAR over the past two seasons, respectively.

The White Sox picked up Mark Teahan for starting second baseman Chris Getz and power-hitting third base prospect Josh Fields. Teahan is a mediocre utilityman (with a 0.1 and 0.2 WAR over the past two years), yet the Royals acquired ten years of team control between two players with promising potential. Getz may not be more than a utility infielder, but Josh Fields already has a 23 home run year with the White Sox under his belt.

Unlike Hermida and Teahan, neither of whom have posted a one-win season since 2007, J.J. Hardy remains incredibly useful -- despite his offensive struggles this season.

FanGraphs notes that Hardy has posted the third-best combined UZR (defensive) numbers in the past three years combined. He even ranks ahead of the great Omar Vizquel (likely only due to a lack of playing time on Vizquel's part). That is better than Ryan Zimmerman, the slick third baseman for the Nationals.

Hardy is also only one year removed from a four-win season. That is significantly more productive than either Hermida or Teahan, especially when considering Hardy was worth +1.4 wins in 2009, yet Hermida and Teahan still required more than one young, talented player in return.

Surely, Glen Perkins cannot be considered more valuable than Josh Fields at this point. Both have shown flashes of capability at the big league level, but are currently dealing with inconsistency and did not produce in 2009.

Add Perkins' injury concerns to the mix, and it is clear that Glen Perkins is not an adequate return for J.J. Hardy on the trade market. Minnesota would have to come calling with another intriguing prospect to add to the trade package or perhaps substitute Perkins for someone like Kevin Slowey (not that Minnesota is willing to move him and has his own injury concerns).

If Doug Melvin really wanted to shake things up between the Brewers and the Twins, he could consider adding Mat Gamel to the J.J. Hardy trade package and target someone like Francisco Liriano and a premium pitching prospect. No one could accuse Melvin of not being creative or aggressive with that trade.

Take the numerous trade rumors that are about to swirl with a grain of salt, but they provide fodder for baseball fans across the nation during the dark winter months.

The offseason is here, ladies and gentlemen, and I cannot wait to cover what transpires. Enjoy the ride.

Stark Suggests Strong Market for Hardy

Jim Breen — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 14:49:37 GMT

In his weekly Rumblings and Grumblings article on ESPN, Jayson Stark suggests there will be a massive market for shortstop J.J. Hardy this offseason.

Despite his offensive struggles, he still provides defense with the glove. It is also very easy to forget that J.J. is a season removed from a .283/.343/.478 season with 24 home runs and 74 RBIs. A scout told Stark:

"I've already recommended we look into him," said one scout. "Offensively, I think he's got to fix his hands. They're too far away from his body. But his defense is solid. He's got good makeup. And he does a lot of little things. If anyone needs a shortstop, they'd be crazy not to look at him."