Milwaukee Brewers Blog - Bernie's Crew : Mike Cameron

Elias Rankings Released

Jim Breen — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 22:05:04 GMT

The free agent Elias Rankings have been released, and Ed Price of AOL Fanhouse provides the composite rankings.

Milwaukee does not have a single Type-A free agent hitting the market, but has a slew of Type-Bs hitting the open market this winter. They include:

CF Mike Cameron
2B Felipe Lopez
C Jason Kendall
RHP Braden Looper
RHP David Weathers

These five Type-B free agents could correlate into five extra compensatory "sandwich" picks in the 2010 Draft next June.

To cash in on the Type-Bs, however, the Brewers would have to offer these five players arbitration and have them spurn the offer to hit the open market. The Brewers can also decline the options for Looper and Weathers and still offer arbitration in hopes of gaining a compensatory selection next June.

Let's evaluate the chances of each individual player netting the Brewers an extra sandwich pick:

CF Mike Cameron: Shortly after acquiring Carlos Gomez for J.J. Hardy last Friday, Doug Melvin reportedly left a message for Cameron. It informed him that Milwaukee would not pursue him this winter in free agency. There is a slight chance Milwaukee could offer arbitration in hopes of Cam turning it down for a starting gig elsewhere, but I doubt Melvin takes that financial gamble. (One compensatory pick lost)
2B Felipe Lopez: With Doug Melvin publicly endorsing Rickie Weeks as the 2010 starter at second base, the Scott Boras client will almost certainly decline arbitration for a starting job with another organization. Felipe played brilliantly in 2010 and deserves a starting job. It simply will not be in Milwaukee. (One compensatory pick gained)
C Jason Kendall: Jason has gone on record stating that he wishes to end his career in Milwaukee, which suggests he would accept an offer of arbitration, if offered. After Jason Kendall posted one of the worst offensive seasons by a full-time player in 2009, however, it is unlikely Milwaukee will chance Kendall accepting. Not to mention Melvin has also mentioned Jonathan Lucroy has a legitimate chance at starting for the Crew in 2010. (One compensatory pick lost)
RHP Braden Looper: The Brewers have said that Looper gave the team exactly what they expected in 2009 and are reportedly considering exercising his 2010 option. The team has until Saturday to make a decision. It is unlikely, however, that the Brewers pick up his $6.5M option, given his abysmal performance this season. Looper would be foolish not to exercise his portion of the option or accept arbitration, as he will not make much this winter elsewhere. (One compensatory pick lost)
RHP David Weathers: After coming to Milwaukee in August and posting a 4.88 ERA in 25 games, the organization declined his $3.7M option for 2010. His peripherals were awful and have consistently been declining over the past couple of seasons. Although the Crew could still offer arbitration, the organization seems committed to cutting payroll for starting pitching this offseason. (One compensatory pick lost)

It appears that the Brewers should clean up with multiple compensatory picks this offseason. After further delving into the individual situations, however, the only likely "sandwich" pick should come via Felipe Lopez.

Braden Looper could still garner another sandwich pick for the Crew, but Milwaukee would either have to (a) decline his 2010 option, offer arbitration, and have Looper reject their offer, or (b) have Milwaukee exercise their portion of the mutual option and have Looper decline his portion. Neither are very likely.

The Elias Rankings may appear to greatly benefit the Brewers, but scouting director Bruce Seid should only have a single extra draft selection to play with in 2010.

Quantifying Cameron's Defense

Jim Breen — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 19:05:27 GMT

When pouring over Mike Cameron's UZR ratings over the years, I noticed a strange trend.

His defensive numbers differ greatly depending on the team with which he played. Look below:

Seattle Mariners: +9.5 runs (2002), +14.7 runs (2003)
New York Mets: +4.0 runs (2004), -0.2 runs (2005)
San Diego Padres: -0.1 runs (2006), -10.2 runs (2007)
Milwaukee Brewers: +11.3 runs (2008), +13.0 runs (2009)

Before moving on, it should be mentioned that Cameron's 2005 UZR in New York should be discarded due to a small sample size. Cam only started nine games before suffering a year-ending concussion on that brutal collision with Carlos Beltran.

This suggests that perhaps the stadium adversely affected Cameron while in San Diego. Perhaps PETCO is a black hole for defensive center fielders.

Upon further investigation, however, that does not appear to be accurate. Tony Gwynn Jr. is currently enjoying a +6.4 UZR season in center for the San Diego Padres. Either the UZR numbers do not depend on the stadium, or Gwynn is significantly better defensively than Cameron and Gwynn would save approximately 20 runs in Miller Park.

That seems unlikely.

Instead, Cameron appears to have sacrificed many runs due to subpar range in center field in 2007 with the Padres. His RngR, or Range Runs Above Average, was -8.0 that season.

Not only does that seem odd because his range in center is clearly above-average, especially given his route running, but it also is odd because RF/G (range factor per game) was consistent with his career marks. It was 2.5 in 2007, which is within his career norm of approximately 2.5-2.8 depending on the season.

What does that mean?

I am unsure, but it does cause me to be quite wary of historical UZR numbers. They seem to correspond well with current players. When extrapolating the numbers into the historical realm, though, things tend to get strange.

For example, Corey Patterson supposedly cost the Chicago Cubs 8.7 runs in center field in 2002 (-8.7 UZR), but remarkably owned a UZR of +24.6 runs in 2004 with only 16 more games started.

When arriving closer to the present, however, his numbers become much more concentrated and consistent -- even crossing teams and stadiums. In 2007 with the Orioles, he posted a +0.7 UZR. In 2008 with the Reds, it was +0.4. Much more consistent, and likely more accurate.

What makes the historical UZR problem even more maddening is that Mike Cameron won a Gold Glove with a -0.1 UZR in 2006. His 121 OPS+ and 22 home runs surely played a large part in the award, but the issue remains.

UZR seemingly has issues judging past defensive performances, but tends to past the "eye test" with current players. Mike Cameron is a perfect example of that. It should remind us to be wary of judging offseason acquisitions by their UZR numbers prior to the 2008 season. They appear flawed in some way, even if I am not well-versed in statistical theory to identify how.

Mining for Minutiae

Jim Breen — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 04:15:00 GMT

Butler Debuts

Josh Butler made his big league debut, and his performance drew a mixed review from my end.

His stuff projects nicely to the big league level. He has a 91-93 MPH fastball with plenty of movement in toward right-handers with plenty of downward movement. That led to a 1.50 GO/AO ratio in the minor leagues this season. Butler then mixes in an above-average changeup and a decent curveball, but his pitch selection depends on the hitter. Against righties, he favors his low-80s curveball (which is a bit more of a slurve), while predominately featuring his mid-80s changeup to lefties. That changeup, however, did not stop lefties from hitting .294 against him in Nashville -- an issue that certainly must be resolved before jumping to a big league rotation.

The young man displayed control problems, however, walking two Cubs and needing 36 pitches to close out two innings of work.

While the walks can partially be blamed on nerves, the main issue stems from his loose pitching mechanics. This makes his release point difficult to repeat, which leads to inconsistency -- especially given his extreme movement on his pitches. A friend mentioned that Butler showed good control in the minors, but his 4.37 BB/9 and 4.06 BB/9 walk rates in Brevard County over the past two seasons, respectively, suggest otherwise. He seemed to find his release point, however, after reaching Huntsville and Nashville this year. Another season of solid walk rates would be needed to quell the control concerns, though.

Butler is nowhere near cracking the Brewers' starting rotation in 2010. If he can repeat his 2009 numbers, however, he could be an intriguing late-season call-up that could slide in nicely at the back-end of the staff.

Axford Impresses on Second Go-Round

After issuing free passes galore in his big league debut just last week, John Axford looked much improved on the mound Monday evening.

He pounded the glove in the low-to-mid 90s with a solid, sinking fastball. Ask Kosuke Fukudome how easy that 95 MPH fastball on the hands was to handle in the top of the ninth.

The real gem, however, was his power curve. He collected both of his strikeouts via the curveball and even displayed the ability to spike one in the dirt to both lefties and righties. I was also pleased to see a bit of what appeared to be a slider mixed into his repertoire as well.

Axford could be a nice addition to the bullpen next season. He is exactly the type of young, cheap, hard-throwing arms Ken Macha has been clamoring for this month.

Gerut Closing the Season in Style

Who would have thought the enigmatic Jody Gerut would be screaming for playing time in the Brewers' outfield?

Doug Melvin drew much criticism for swapping underperforming center field prospect Tony Gwynn Jr. for Gerut early in the season. Gerut struggled to a sub-.200 batting average through most of the summer. The young man had even begun to become the butt of many jokes in Milwaukee, especially when being compared to Jason Kendall at the plate.

Throughout the past couple of months, however, Gerut has looked much more like Felipe Lopez at the plate than Jason Kendall. He is spraying hits to every part of the diamond and has compiled a 129 and 147 OPS+ (where 100 is league average) in the months of August and September, respectively. His walk rate has doubled and the home runs have returned (four in the past two months).

This is the Jody Gerut for which Doug Melvin traded back in May.

Cameron Breaks Slump, Homers Twice

Mike Cameron entered the game hitting .208 with a .246 OBP in the month of September, but shook off his slump in dramatic fashion with two home runs against the Cubs on Monday night. The two solo shots proved to be the Crew's only runs of the night.

The 36-year old veteran continues to be the model of consistency in center.

His .255 batting average is extremely close to his career .250 mark. The two home runs on Monday gives him 21 on the season, two short of his career average of 23. To top it off, his OPS+ exactly mirrors his 106 career average.

FanGraphs roughly equates his 2009 performance to be worth just under $18MM on the open market. Say what you want about his frustrating penchant for compiling a low batting average with RISP and striking out an above-average rate, the man produces in center. Considering his plus-defense and overall consistency at the plate, it would be foolish for the Crew to not bring him back at a reduced rate for the 2010 season.

Importance of a Healthy Rotation

It is no coincidence that Milwaukee's free-fall from first place this summer coincided with the injuries to Dave Bush and Jeff Suppan.

With both Bush and Suppan in the rotation, the Milwaukee Brewers have posted a 44-35 record. With either Bush and/or Suppan injured an absent from the starting rotation, however, Milwaukee could only manage a 30-41 record.

Cameron a Steal at Right Price

Jim Breen — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 13:00:00 GMT

Dave Bush and the Milwaukee Brewers were embarrassed in a 10-3 debacle against the St. Louis Cardinals.

Enough about that. It will only depress us all.

On to greener pastures -- discussing the 2010 roster.

Mike Cameron told Adam McCalvy that he would take a paycut to remain with the Milwaukee Brewers in 2010. That, of course, would necessitate the organization either negotiating an extension prior to the offseason or not offering Cam arbitration in hopes of signing him to a lesser contract.

The prospect of offering Cameron arbitration has sailed. Doug Melvin would be foolish to extend an arby offer to the center fielder, as he would almost certainly garner a raise if the case went to a hearing. Why offer arbitration, and thus a pay raise, to a player who explicitly states that he is open to taking a paycut to remain with the organization?

That, of course, means no sandwich pick for Type-B compensation.

Cameron has once again proven extremely valuable for the Milwaukee Brewers. His bat has been worth +11.0 runs, or roughly one win, on the strength of a .258/.357/.460 offensive line. That includes 19 home runs and 65 RBI in 123 games in center.

If that were not enough, the 15-year veteran has also saved 8.6 runs in center field -- almost an entire run. He may have lost a half-step or so in the outfield, but his routes still remain precise. On balls that other center fielders would be forced to dive or slide for, Mike Cameron easily glides under. His defense is partially under-appreciated because he makes everything look effortless.

Adding the numbers together (plus his replacement value, which is based on playing time), Mike Cameron has been worth almost four wins, a +3.9 WAR. That ranks third on the team in terms of wins above replacement, with only Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun ranking ahead of him.

It is yet another under-appreciated season for Mike Cameron, yet I do not wish to pay $10MM+ to secure his services again in 2010. Why?

Not because the Brewers have an adequate replacement waiting in the wings. They do not. Lorenzo Cain is at least a season away, while neither Corey Hart nor Rickie Weeks are prepared to handle a defensive switch to center field. Jody Gerut has suffered through a horrendous season, and Corey Patterson has proven nothing in the big leagues to suggest he deserves even a look at center field in 2010 -- assuming Milwaukee would wish to extend a contract his way.

Not because of his .258 batting average or 130 strikeouts. I can live those numbers and the .232 AVG with RISP (runners in scoring position). Those are a given for Mike Cameron. He produces in other manners at the plate. He will provide 20+ home runs, plus-defense in center, and a solid walk rate. All extremely valuable in a center fielder.

Why then? Why do I not wish to offer Mike Cameron arbitration and pony up the $10MM for an above-average center fielder?

First, the Brewers have more pressing needs.

Milwaukee would be better served to sign a Gabe Kapler or a Reed Johnson and reallocate the savings to signing a starting pitcher this winter. The starting pitching currently owns the fourth worst ERA in the major leagues -- the second worst in the National League, with only the Washington Nationals allowing more earned runs. The rotation has also walked the fifth most batters in the majors.

The woes of the starting rotation have been well-chronicled and do not need belaboring. Simply glance at the Wednesday night box score for evidence.

Secondly, the Brewers do not have to pay Cameron $10MM.

With the news that Mike Cameron will take a paycut, perhaps even a substantial paycut, to remain in Milwaukee, he just became the favorite to roam center field in 2010.

If Doug Melvin can resign Cam for $6-7MM, that opens up at least $3-4MM to sign a pitcher this offseason. That would net the Crew an above-average center fielder and another arm for the starting rotation. And assuming J.J. Hardy nets the Crew a pitcher this winter, that could be two new arms for the pitching staff next season.

Mike Cameron already outproduces his current contract, which stands at $10MM. Milwaukee would be foolish to not resign the 15-year veteran to a lesser contract this offseason. It allows the Crew to fill two simultaneous needs -- acquiring an adequate center fielder and saving money for another starting pitcher to augment the rotation.

The cloudy outlook for 2010 may have just gotten a bit brighter.

Cameron on the Move?

Jim Breen — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 01:51:48 GMT

Jon Heyman is reporting that teams across the league have shown interest in Mike Cameron, citing the Detroit Tigers as a possible serious suitor.

It is just a rumor for now.

It also has a rapidly approaching deadline. The waiver deal deadline is August 31st for teams that wish to acquire playoff-eligible players. Organizations would be foolish to acquire Cameron and not utilize him in the postseason.