The Manny Parra conundrum

Many real and digital trees have already died this spring trying to figure out and debating what should happen with the young southpaw who pitched his way back into the long term plans of the Brewers in 2007 after years lost to injury. With every successful outing (and so far, they've all been good) the crowd sharpening their rhetorical knives for Ned Yost should he dare send Parra down to AAA to open the year grows.

Anyone reading this is probably well aware of the fact that Parra has never pitched over 140 innings and that there is some evidence that suggests that young pitchers asked to vastly exceed their previous IP marks are at increased risk for injury or loss of effectiveness. It has been reported that the Brewers themselves use 30 innings as a general guideline for where to cut off young pitchers inning increases. A full years work is likely to exceed 200 innings, which would be a jump of over 60 innings.

The way I see it, this leaves two major options:

1) They can put him in the rotation from the beginning of the year and plan to leave him there as long as he is healthy and productive.
2) They can find some way to limit his innings.

I cannot see letting a pitcher of Parra's upside take the risks associated with number one. As much as I want the team to win this year, I also plan on being a fan of this team the next 5 years. If the team plans to contend in the coming years they should protect assets of Parra's value and not just cross their fingers and hope for the best while ignoring legitimate concerns.

Now, there are several ways to accomplish number two:

A) They can pitch him every 5th day from the start of the season, and then shut him down when he reaches whatever inning mark the team deems safe.
B) They can pitch him out of the bullpen (in the majors or minors) to limit his innings at some point.
C) They can hold him to strict pitch counts to limit his innings while starting him every 5th day in the majors.
D)  They can send him down to the minor leagues and control his innings while starting him every 5th day for a month to six weeks and then bring him up and pitch him as normal
E) They can use the off days to skip starts early in the year to keep his innings in line.

To me, A isn't a legitimate option because a team in contention is vulnerable to being pressured to abandon the plan and because I think it would be good to have him available for a potential post-season run. C puts undue pressure on the bullpen, because for it to be effective you would have to limit him to many 4-5 inning starts. B is a legitimate option, though the team seems reluctant to exercise it.

The most likely options at this point appear to be D and E. Considering just how effective Parra has been this spring to this point, they probably need to seriously start looking at option E, even if they don't like the idea of him missing starts and working irregularly.

There doesn't seem to be a perfect answer here, but letting Parra pitch in the majors out of the 5th spot in the rotation and skipping starts does seem to be the lesser evil at this point.

Comments

 

Steves Stoners said:

I don't think Ned Yost has a choice.  Gallardo is hurt, the fans opinion of him is split (to say the least) and his numbers this spring are outstanding.  Plus Ned Yost is already putting a lot on the line with the Kendall batting 9th situation.  I know injuries are never a great thing but if Parra started up in the rotaion for a month (don't think Yost has too much of a choice even if its the right decision) and pitched well and gets a non arm related injury (something like Yo has) and that can be used to limit his injuries and that would allow Yost not to deal with the innings issue.  Obviously injuries are never hoped for but I don't see if Parra pitches well how he will be able to be sent down and most likely in the heat of a pennant race if Parra has to get shut down... well i'll just say that won't sit well.

March 23, 2008 2:05 AM
 

radio silence said:

If Ned Yost can finally decide to skip off days for his fifth starter, Parra's IP can be limited at the big league level in a fairly effective way.

But, Yost has never shown the ability to do that -- and why should he? He has often argued that if he has five guys pitching well, he's not going to skip one.

There is a very simple plan that the Crew can use: send him to AAA for a month and a half (5-6 starts), put him in the bullpen for 4-5 weeks, and then start him like normal. The AAA starts will allow the team to cut his IP total down to 4-5 IP per start, while still allowing Parra to start ballgames; a regular-weekly bullpen stint could work the way Yoga's trip did in 2007; and then he'll have plenty of room to make a full slate of starts for four months...

If Melvin and Yost do not do anything to limit Parra's IP, they're idiots and deserve to be fired. This team cannot afford to lose a pitcher like Parra to ineffectiveness or injury after he's come this far.

March 24, 2008 7:43 AM
 

Ryan Topp said:

"If Melvin and Yost do not do anything to limit Parra's IP, they're idiots and deserve to be fired. This team cannot afford to lose a pitcher like Parra to ineffectiveness or injury after he's come this far."

Radio:

I agree. I don't see that happening, but if it does, it shows they aren't properly balancing the present and future.

March 24, 2008 11:53 AM

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