In case you had not heard, the second largest prize of the off-season trade market, Miguel Cabrera, has reportedly signed a hefty extension with the Detroit Tigers. If it is as reported, it is essentially a 9 year deal for $164.6 million, when you take into account the fact that he will still be paid his $11.3 million this year and the 8 year deal for $153.3 million will run from 2009 to 2016. That means this deal bought out 7 years of his free agency at roughly 19 million per year.
In many ways, Miguel Cabrera has helped set a preliminary bench mark for the type of money Prince Fielder will be looking for. Prince is two years behind Cabrera in terms of his schedule for arbitration and free agent eligibility. But they both came up and were productive at very young ages and both are/were eligible to hit the free agent market before their 28th birthdays. Cabrera gets and edge by playing 3rd (no matter how poorly) and in the batting average department. But Fielder has already shown more pure power than Cabrera has and isn't far behind in the on base department.
If you use Ryan Howard's 10 million dollar deal for this year as a benchmark of the sort of money Prince will command next year in arby, and then figure in a solid raise of a few million more each of the next few years, you are probably looking at him making $35-$40 million in the arbitration process from 2009-2011. At that point, he will likely be seeking at least the sort of deal Cabrera got, something maybe 8 years for $20 million per year. That is 12 years worth of commitment for $200 million, not counting a raise for this season. It would almost certainly take at least a 10 year offer worth roughly that amount to get any serious negotiation going at this point.
Does anyone think the Brewers can or should make an offer in that ballpark to sign a guy who will likely need to be a DH by his 30th birthday?