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May 2008 - Posts
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There was a fantastic article on JSonline.com Thursday by Don Walker in which he solicited economist John Vrooman's opinion on how the Brewers are being built and run.
Based on his analysis, the payroll bumps in the early part of this decade did not yield the desired effect on the field.
In other words, the Brewers spent more but didn't win much.
"This is especially true for the 2002 Brewers," he said in describing that horrendous 56-106 team. "The worst team in Brewers history. The pre-2002 clubs have left a footprint of maximum inefficiency and the 2002 club killed the buzz from new Miller Park after one season."
But it wasn't all bad.
Vrooman believes the hiring of Doug Melvin as general manager after 2002 was a good move, even as the team, led by the ownership group led by Bud Selig, began slashing the payroll.
"Two things were happening: Melvin was building the team internally and the Seligs were cutting costs because the club was being put on the market," Vrooman said. "Most MLB clubs are operated way past the point of maximum profit because the owners want to win. But when the team is up for sale the payroll is cut to the minimum to maximize team value."
"The Seligs were trying to win, but they did it the wrong way," Vrooman said.
The idea that the Seligs were trying to win runs counter to a common fan orthodoxy that says that they simply didn't care about winning. That last action of the Selig regime, to cut payroll to sell the team is widely remembered and vilified by the fan base as taking the money they got from the building of Miller Park and running. In reality, it cut a lot of the "dead wood" out and left Melvin with a clear path to build from within and start anew.
In Vrooman's view, the franchise began to turn around with Melvin working to beef up the farm system. That was followed by the purchase of the team in January 2005 by Mark Attanasio.
"The key to the internalization strategy is not only to grow talent from inside but also to keep players as they mature and work their way up the seniority ladder," Vrooman said.
The Brewers were very late to realize that with the huge disparity created by television and market dependent merchandising meant that they would not be able to compete by buying what they need on the open market. Franchises like Oakland and Minnesota caught on quicker and were able to have success by building from within earlier. Eventually, though, the franchise started to commit to building from within and we find ourselves today with a team whose best players are largely a product of building from within. There was a lot of time lost, but not because the franchise didn't want to win, but because they didn't know how to go about it. They should have figured it out sooner, but it's better late than never.
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Like other Brewer fans, I have been nervous about the Brewers starting rotation since Gallardo went down against the Cubs, likely for the season. At that point, Sheets and Gallardo were really the only two consistent bets to give a solid start and eat innings. Especially troubling was the inability of the back of the rotation to get through the middle innings without getting torched. Since the Boston series, however, the starters are going deeper into games. Here is a breakdown of the last 9 games since Boston:
-May 20: Manny Parra 5 2/3 IP
-May 21: Ben Sheets 9 IP
-May 22: Dave Bush 5 IP
-May 23: Jeff Suppan 5 2/3 IP
-May 24: Seth McClung 5 IP (First start and working on a limited pitch count)
-May 25: Manny Parra 4 1/3
-May 26 Ben Sheets 6 IP
-May 27 Dave Bush 7 IP
-May 28 Jeff Suppan 8 IP
The average IP per start for these 9 games comes to about 6 1/3 Innings. That number isn't going to set the roof on fire, but it is a 1 inning improvement compared to the the 5 1/3 IP before May 20. That extra inning is critical for keeping the bullpen fresh, and the team will need to rely on those relievers the rest of the year, especially until the club can do something to upgrade its staring pitching. The Crew's bullpen struggled last season during July and August, after it had been overworked in the early months by having a starting staff that couldn't go deep enough into games. There will be times when Yost will have to decide between getting innings out a faltering starter and giving the team the best chance to win a given game by going to the pen early. Correctly balancing those things is what he gets paid for, and he'll have to do his best. Hopefully Brewer starters can continue to hold down the fort until help can arrive around the trade deadline. Editors note: This was written before McClung's short start on Thursday against the Braves
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I meant to get around to this sooner, but something always got in the way. It may be old news, but it's still relevant. Brewers Owner Mark Attanasio said a few weeks back that; "We have flexibility in the payroll for whatever it turns out we need." In reference to possibly adding a starting pitcher. So I took a look over at Cot's Baseball Contracts (see the link in the sidebar) at the pitchers who could potentially be free agents at the end of the year. They are the ones most likely to find themselves on the trade market, for obvious reasons. I then divided them into some categories for discussion:
* = option for next year
Not really useful enough to strongly consider
- Kris Bensen PHI
- Mike Hampton * ATL
- Orlando Hernandez NYM
- Jason Jennings TEX
- Esteban Loaiza LAD
- Mark Mulder * STL
- Carl Pavano NYY
- Mark Prior SD
- Horatio Ramirez SEA
- Julian Tavarez BOS
- Steve Trachsel BAL
Playing for a definite contender and/or not likely to move for other reasons
- Paul Byrd CLE
- Jon Garland LAA
- Tom Glavine ATL
- Randy Johnson ARZ
- John Lackey * LAA
- Derek Lowe LAD
- Pedro Martinez NYM
- Mike Mussina NYY
- Jamie Moyer PHI
- Brad Penny * LAD
- Oliver Perez NYM
- Andy Pettitte NYY
- C.C. Sabathia CLE
- John Smoltz * ATL
Possiblity for making a move
- A.J. Burnett TOR (May opt out of his contract at the end of the year)
- Rich Harden * OAK
- Braden Looper STL
- Odalis Perez WAS
- Brett Tomko KC
- Claudio Vargas NYM
- Randy Wolf SD
A few of those listed in the "not really useful" category could move into this area later in the year, but it's hard to tell who that might be right now. Perez, Tomko and Wolf all could be serviceable back of the rotation options should the Brewers have a need for that type of pitcher. All three are playing for teams that look to be going nowhere and could probably be had for minimal return. I put Vargas on here because there is a chance that he could become expendable to the Mets at some point in the season. Looper in on here in case the Cardinals fall out of the race, as was projected before the season. He could be a useful 4th starter.
The two most interesting names on the list are Harden and Burnett, because they are both capable of being dominant at times. For Oakland to look to trade Harden, they would have to fall back a ways in the race (a solid bet, but not a sure thing) and he would have to stay healthy (longer odds, for sure). They probably wouldn't demand that much for him, possibly a few mid level prospects, and if he's healthy he's a solid #2. The fact that Burnett can opt out of his current contract after the season and almost certainly will if he stays healthy means the Jay's would have to strongly consider moving him if they fall out of the playoff race. Given the strength of the Red Sox and Yankees and surprising emergence of the Rays, that seems very possible. Chances are good that the price tag for Burnett would be fairly high and whatever team gets him would really have to beat out some bidding competition. The Brewers will probably need to make a move to shore up the pitching rotation down the stretch with the injuries to Gallardo and Capuano, the release of Vargas and Villanueva's failure. There may be some others available on the market, but this list is a good place to start for likely names.
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Ryan Braun spoke his mind about the mindsets of his teammates after the Brewers were swept by the Boston Red Sox on Sunday:
"I almost felt like this series, we didn't expect to win," Braun said after the Brewers dropped their fifth consecutive game and ninth in a row on the road.
"We were competing; I know everybody tried hard. But it's not about trying hard. You've got to expect to win. I almost feel like we never really expected to win any of these games. I just kind of had that feeling.
"It's just a feeling. Every time we were winning, I just didn't feel we expected to win. It was like we were just content to be there and compete. I don't think we necessarily expected to win."
The implication here of course is that he does expect to win and that his teammates are not all on the same page. If that is the case, it is obviously a problem. He does say that he thinks guys are working hard and "competing" and that should help soften the blow a little bit.
Braun seems to be trying to assume a mantle of leadership and that isn't a bad thing in and of itself. The problem is how he's chosen to go about it. He did not call a private team meeting and directly address those he is speaking about face to face. Instead, he went to the media and called his teammates out that way.
What Braun said can easily be interpreted (or misinterpreted, if you're so inclined) as grandstanding and putting himself above the rest of the team as opposed to a part of them. Even if that isn't what he intended, it would be understandable if the other players felt that is what he was doing. Braun is hitting the ball exceptionally well at the moment, which means he has cover for his performance and thus his comments seem to be directed at others, and not really including himself. Don't forget that Braun just got a huge payday and that can also create some resentment from players who have been around longer.
There is a reason that players usually don't say this type of thing in the media and when it happens it is news; it isn't really a good thing to call out your teammates to a reporter instead of to their faces. If Braun really wants to be a team leader, he is going to have to start doing this sort of thing with his teammates personally and not to the media. Of course that wouldn't provide the fans with the satisfaction of having a player express their frustration with the team. But being a leader isn't about pleasing those on the outside of a situation. It is about leading others towards a common goal.
What Braun said may have needed saying, but he almost certainly chose the wrong place to express his thoughts.
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I know that I'm posting quite a bit on the bullpen lately, but that has been the major issue with the Brewers so far and so that's what there is to talk about. Many of the moves that General Manager Doug Melvin made shore up the bullpen in the off-season have had success, albeit of varying degrees. Salomon Torres has been very good and both Guillermo Mota and David Riske have been mostly successful with a few rough outings that inflate their numbers a bit. The Eric Gagne signing has, however, been a fairly unmitigated disaster to this point. There has been a lot of talk and analysis of the fact that the Brewers let Fransisco Cordero take the larger offer from the Reds, but not as much talk about the other options the Brewers had besides those two.
The other veteran closer on the market last winter who had fallen on harder times recently was Troy Percival. At the time he signed with the Rays, there was talk that he was
down to Milwaukee and Tampa Bay in his decision making process. Percival is doing in very well in Tampa Bay. So far in 16 innings this year, Percival has a 2.25 ERA, a .563 WHIP, a 15/2 K/BB ratio. Sure, two of his seven hits allowed were round trippers, but he's saved 10 of 12 opportunities and worked 12 totally clean innings in 16 tries. Compare that to Gagne who in 18 2/3 innings has a 6.27 ERA, a 1.875 WHIP, a 18/14 K/BB ratio. He's converted 9 of 14 save opportunities and has only 6 clean innings worked in that whole time.
What's worse is that Percival signed a 2 year contract for 8 million dollars with a possible 4 million in incentives. Sure, the fact that Gagne is only signed for a year is great, but it's for more than the 8 million that has to be paid to Percival. If he winds up pitching well for the Rays this year, they will get him at a relative discount for next year and still pay only a little more for two years than the Brewers paid Gagne to struggle this year.
It may be that Percival just wanted to go to Tampa Bay and the Brewers were a second option that he never seriously considered. Still, at this point it looks like Melvin should have rolled out the red carpet and made an offer that Percival couldn't refuse to try to lure him to Milwaukee. Assuming they still would have signed Riske and made the trades for Torres and Mota, it's hard to argue that they wouldn't have a signifigantly better bullpen this year with Percival than with Gagne.
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