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Some Starting Pitcher Possiblites

I meant to get around to this sooner, but something always got in the way. It may be old news, but it's still relevant. Brewers Owner Mark Attanasio said a few weeks back that; "We have flexibility in the payroll for whatever it turns out we need." In reference to possibly adding a starting pitcher. So I took a look over at Cot's Baseball Contracts (see the link in the sidebar) at the pitchers who could potentially be free agents at the end of the year. They are the ones most likely to find themselves on the trade market, for obvious reasons. I then divided them into some categories for discussion:

 * = option for next year

Not really useful enough to strongly consider

  • Kris Bensen PHI
  • Mike Hampton * ATL
  • Orlando Hernandez NYM
  • Jason Jennings TEX
  • Esteban Loaiza LAD
  • Mark Mulder * STL
  • Carl Pavano NYY
  • Mark Prior SD
  • Horatio Ramirez SEA
  • Julian Tavarez BOS
  • Steve Trachsel BAL

Playing for a definite contender and/or not likely to move for other reasons

  • Paul Byrd CLE
  • Jon Garland LAA
  • Tom Glavine ATL
  • Randy Johnson ARZ
  • John Lackey * LAA
  • Derek Lowe LAD
  • Pedro Martinez NYM
  • Mike Mussina NYY
  • Jamie Moyer PHI
  • Brad Penny * LAD
  • Oliver Perez NYM
  • Andy Pettitte NYY
  • C.C. Sabathia CLE
  • John Smoltz * ATL

Possiblity for making a move

  • A.J. Burnett TOR (May opt out of his contract at the end of the year)
  • Rich Harden * OAK
  • Braden Looper STL
  • Odalis Perez WAS
  • Brett Tomko KC
  • Claudio Vargas NYM
  • Randy Wolf SD

A few of those listed in the "not really useful" category could move into this area later in the year, but it's hard to tell who that might be right now. Perez, Tomko and Wolf all could be serviceable back of the rotation options should the Brewers have a need for that type of pitcher. All three are playing for teams that look to be going nowhere and could probably be had for minimal return. I put Vargas on here because there is a chance that he could become expendable to the Mets at some point in the season. Looper in on here in case the Cardinals fall out of the race, as was projected before the season. He could be a useful 4th starter.

The two most interesting names on the list are Harden and Burnett, because they are both capable of being dominant at times. For Oakland to look to trade Harden, they would have to fall back a ways in the race (a solid bet, but not a sure thing) and he would have to stay healthy (longer odds, for sure). They probably wouldn't demand that much for him, possibly a few mid level prospects, and if he's healthy he's a solid #2. The fact that Burnett can opt out of his current contract after the season and almost certainly will if he stays healthy means the Jay's would have to strongly consider moving him if they fall out of the playoff race. Given the strength of the Red Sox and Yankees and surprising emergence of the Rays, that seems very possible. Chances are good that the price tag for Burnett would be fairly high and whatever team gets him would really have to beat out some bidding competition.

The Brewers will probably need to make a move  to shore up the pitching rotation down the stretch with the injuries to Gallardo and Capuano, the release of Vargas and Villanueva's failure. There may be some others available on the market, but this list is a good place to start for likely names.

Comments

 

ghostdog_on_the_beach said:

I think the only real option for the Brewers present pitching woes is to obtain a front end starting pitcher. I think this needs to be approached as a long term move by Melvin. A stop gap move with the eye on the now could have terrible ramifications for this franchise.

Guys like A.J. Burnett and Rich Harden will be expensive, and what are you paying for in both instances.

(a) Brewers fans complain about Ben Sheets durability. If Benny lacks "heart" and "toughness" as some ill informed folks have insisted what would they say about Harden. Has he ever had a stretch of more then 2 months without missing a start (Answer: No). In what amounts to 5 seasons roughly since he was called up Harden has started 81 games (let me repeat that for you 81 games). Since 2006 he has appeared in 18 games. Harden's stuff electric but Harden's durability non-existent.

(b) A.J. Burnett is the baseball great unsolved mystery. The guy has   stuff equal to any pitcher in baseball. His career numbers are very good. A career WHIP of 1.283, but if you make move to get him (it will cost you a SS...). If you trade Escobar for him for example, losing him at the end of the season might be. However if you trade them J.J. Hardy you have to resign him at the end of the season which is problematic because he and Sheets are the same pitcher except Sheets is a couple years younger.

In the short term, Hardy for Burnett might be a move you can survive through 2008 but if you lose him and/or Sheets at the end of the year it is not a good move. If Melvin is thinking long term and pulls the trigger on this type of trade I guess it will be OK.

May 24, 2008 7:00 AM
 

Ryan Topp said:

Ghost,

You're right, there really isn't an ideal candidate here. Harden for the injury reasons and Burnett for the likely short term nature of being able to keep him.

They need to wait a while and honestly assess where they are around the AS break to determine just how much future they are going to be willing to give up for now based on just what is possible for this year.

It may well turn out that the team just isn't close enough to justify giving up premium talent to get one of these guys.

I know that it's just one game, but what I saw from Perez last night has me thinking that we could realistically look at him as a starter a tier down from the Harden/Burnett ability to fill in the 3rd or 4th spot in the rotation at a minimum cost of prospects. Right now, things are bad enough with the rotation that I think he could upgrade at least 1 spot (Bush) almost certainly another (McClung) and possibly even 3 (Parra).

It might be worth a shot.

May 24, 2008 11:31 AM

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