|
| |
June 2008 - Posts
-
This morning I read an article posted at Baseball Prospectus (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7730) about the apparent causes of the decline of African-American participation in MLB. It is a topic that I have given some thought to because in the past I have been a coach and mentor in several of the local inner city leagues in the Milwaukee area. So my take on this issue is a little different then the day to day baseball writer (Dayn Perry) or the crusading sports columnist (William C. Rhoden) may have on this issue.
First, I agree with Rhoden's sentiments which is that African American kids are allowing an enormous part of their history to be washed away because of transient social and economic fads (ie... fixation on the fast fame that football and basketball provide). Why would black people who were born before 1960 care so much about this issue? Why would Bud Selig care so much about it? It is actually pretty easy to understand why when you look at baseball's history. Often two events are cited as powerful protagonist for the Civil Right movement in America in the 50's and 60's. One was the integration of the Armed Forces during World War II and the other is the integration of Major League Baseball. That is why Rhoden and Bud Selig care so passionately about this issue. It is a huge historical legacy that the sport is and should be proud of.
However, (there is a however whenever I talk about any issue) I don't think MLB should be concerned about the number of African American ballplayers in the sport because it reeks of exactly what they spent from 1948 until the late 60's eradicating, which was placing a value on skin color in baseball. What made baseball special from 1948 on is that the sport tried to live up to the best ideals of our constitutional republic, not always successful, but at least a critical mass of men in the game tried to do the right thing and reward merit. However, I don't think anyone in MLB who supports this program actually believes it will have any significant impact on the number of African Americans who play MLB.
Instead I think the decline in AA participation in MLB has been used as an excuse to intiate these programs for a lot of the supporters of them. In reality the programs that MLB has instituted I think have been a boon for many inner city communities that have been ravaged by dwindling tax bases and a reduction in community programs and after school activities for some of the highest risk kids in this nation. So I will admit to being someone who believes in programs like the one MLB has started because I think it has and will have a positive impact on the communities they have targeted. Also, I have no problem with athletes trying to give to the communities that they came from. I could care less if it increases the number of African American athletes who play baseball or not, but I do care that a lot of these programs have gotten kids who otherwise would not be in any type of structured program into one, and lowered the likelihood that some of these kids become crime statistics or part of the burgeoning correctional system population in this country. Finally, since almost no tax money is being used in these programs, I really don't feel that baseball or the private donors need to justify their social-engineering effort. So I guess my conclusions are that (1) MLB has all the best intentions, (2) I think they are wrong-headed intentions... it will not increase significantly the number of African-American ballplayers in MLB & I don't think MLB should care about the issue anyway, (3) the programs have a positive effect which is good for all of us, and (4) it is MLB's money and the businesses they can find to support the program so no has a real legitimate complaint about their existence. If you think there is a need for such a program for Suburban kids find some players, or former players, who have a passion for such a program make the case and pitch it to Bud Selig the way Dave Winfield, Joe Morgan and others did this one. By the way baseball has had programs like this for years supported by this team or this owner and that owner for groups as diverse as Native American kids, Hawaiian kids to kids living in Appalachia.
-
The hottest rumor of the week, perhaps in the whole game, was that the Brewers have an inside track to acquiring the biggest player on the trading block this summer, Cleveland Indian starter and reigning Cy Young award winner CC Sabathia. It's been reported everywhere from ESPN.com's Buster Olney to Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal. When there is this much smoke, chances are very good that there is some sort of fire somewhere.
Which begs the question of whether or not this would be a good thing. On the very surface, it is a very good thing. Chances are good the Brewers would not have to trade anything significant from the current big league roster to acquire Sabathia, so any trade would probably be a pure upgrade to the current big league roster. The problem is that Sabathia is in the final year of his contract and reports are that he wants to test free agency. There has been talk that any trade could be accompanied by a "negotiating window" that would allow his new team a chance to resign him. Can the Brewers afford the kind of contract Sabathia will be looking for, given their coming commitments to the young players already on the roster? It seems dubious that the Brewers would be able to make a Barry Zito-esque commitment to Sabathia and still retain the young players they have developed, so any trade for Sabathia should be viewed as a likely rental for the rest of the season. After that, he would probably be gone and the Brewers would be left with several draft picks. If that is indeed the case, the Brewers need to be very careful with what they give up to acquire this rental. The way baseball's basic CBA is structured, players are controlled by their teams for six years, the first three at near league minimum salary and the next three are still generally below the full market value. So when a team trades away top flight prospects, they are trading away not only the production, but a very good production/pay ratio. For a small market team, getting good production at a low cost is essential to winning and thus trading away players with the ability to provide that needs to be done very carefully. The Brewers have a wealth of hitting talent, especially at the AA level and not that far off from making it to the majors. Many of those players are at least somewhat blocked at the major league level, or are without a definite position at this point, so they might be expendable. There are also some pitchers in the system, but those are mostly younger and at lower levels. The Brewers ability to draft and develop hitting talent at a greater success rate than pitching probably means they can better afford to lose hitting talent than the pitching talent they have. If the Brewers are going to trade one of the elite players in the system (OF/1B Matt LaPorta, 3B Mat Gamel, RHP Jeremy Jeffress or even C Angel Salome) to land a one year rental player, they need to be fairly certain that the move will come close to ensuring making the postseason. If they make the fall tournament, there is a significant finical boost that accompanies it and they can use that to make some moves to cover for their losses, possibly even sign Ben Sheets or the acquired pitcher long term. If they do not make it, they will have given up top talent at a cheap and controlled cost and will be left with little to show for it. Given the structure of the team, the fact that the "core" players are young and under control a few more years, it makes more sense to me for the team to look at a multi year option first. Players like Zach Grienke of the Royals, Rich Harden of the A's or Eric Bedard of the Mariners all would fit the bill as players who have at least one more year of team control left, though none is as effective as Sabathia. If bad luck should strike or the team simply isn't as good as it looks over the past 6 weeks or so, at least they would have another shot next year, and possibly beyond, with an alternative to Sabathia.
This is a very high risk and potentially high reward situation the Brewers are looking at. They can dramatically increase their chances at making and winning the playoffs this year by making a move, but the potential to give away a significant piece of the future looms large as well. This is when general managers make or break their team's fortunes and their own careers. Melvin has to exercise caution here, while also aggressively trying to better the team for this year. Ultimately, this doesn't need to be a all or nothing year for the franchise and Melvin needs to make sure he doesn't treat it as such.
-
Eric Gagne is on his way back to the Brewers, ready or not. Since going on the disabled list over a month ago, Salomon Torres has firmly grasped the 9th inning role and manager Ned Yost has said that Gagne will not be getting it back upon his return. Which leaves the question: what will Gagne's role be with the team when he returns? Gagne's rough start to the season, where he blew 5 of 15 save opportunities and racked up a 6.98 ERA, coupled with his disastrous second half with Boston last year, has a lot of people convinced that he is without value. There may come a time when the Brewers best move would be to just treat his 10 million dollar salary for this year a "sunk cost" and just part ways with him. I don't think it's time to go that route just yet, though. Last year at this time, Gagne was having a successful, comeback season as closer for the Texas Rangers. Then he went to the Red Sox, and in about two weeks he had managed to work himself out of having the opportunity to pitch in close games. That lasting impression caused many to pan the Brewers acquisition of him in the offseason. The fact that he is less than a year removed from being a reliable option coupled with the fact that he is only 32 years old makes it reasonable to hope there is something left in the tank. His rehab starts at AAA Nashville were a mixed bag, the first solid and the second pretty bad. It is reasonable to assume that something like his second appearance in AAA is still in the cards as a possible outcome in the majors at this point, which means he will have to be used carefully. That brings us back to the question of how the Yost should use him. Gagne's performance to this point of the season pretty much demands that if he is going to be brought back, that he be used only in non-critical game situations, at least until he proves that he has turned a corner. Sure, there might come a time when Yost is forced to use him in a key situation in the event that the rest of the bullpen is unavailable, an extra inning game for instance. In that event, Yost will have to bite the bullet and give him a shot. If Gagne cannot establish himself as a semi-reliable option within a few weeks, then the team will need to just eat the remainder of the contract and bid Gagne farewell. Given the commitment they have made to him financially, it is in their best interest to see if they can't get some value out of him.
-
Ben Sheets told Tom Haudricourt that he's pretty much dead set on testing the free agent waters after this season. Before the season started, General Manager Doug Melvin made his decision to wait out the year before negating a new contract with Sheets public. At the time, few would have argued with his decision. Sheets has made more than a half dozen trips to the disabled list since singing his 4 year, 42 million dollar deal in 2005 and that has somewhat soured most people's outlook on him. This year Sheets has been what Brewer fans hoped he would be the whole contract. His performance has him near the top of most early lists for the CyYoung award.Of course, the year is still less than half gone and there is still time for an injury to happen, but so far, so good.
Sheets repeated injuries put the Brewers in a tough position in terms of what they were going to do with him. To have made a the kind of offer it would have taken to keep Sheets before the season would have been a very high risk and potentially high reward decision. Now it looks like Sheets will be on the market and taking the highest bid to acquire his services for 2009 and beyond. Assuming he stays reasonably healthy the remainder of the year, the Brewers will have to outbid the big markets for Sheets services. That almost certainly means that the cost will exceed what the Brewers would be willing to spend to keep Sheets, though it doesn't guarantee it. With the Brewers right in the thick of the playoff race at the moment, it wouldn't make sense to trade Sheets for prospects at this point. Perhaps if they fall totally out of the race, but that becomes less likely with each passing day and win. This leaves the Brewers with only one real choice at this point: let him play out his contract this year and then take the compensatory draft picks at the end of the year if they're outbid, which they almost certainly will be.
Moving forward this year, the Brewers need to look long and hard at several good starters who may be on the market this year but who will not be free agents at the end of the season. Rich Harden of the A's and Eric Bedard of the Mariners would both provide a boost to this years rotation and help soften the blow of Sheets departure next year. It is true that the Brewers will almost certainly have Yovanni Gallardo back in the fold, but the rotation will still be a bit thin if they don't make another move. It'll be sad to see Sheets take his dominating stuff elsewhere, but the reality is that he will probably get more than this team can afford to risk on him. The best thing that can happen now is for the rest of the squad to pick up their games and give him one hell of a send off.
-
Since I last posted on bullpen useage, many things have changed. Eric Gagne went on the disabled list. David Riske went on the DL and now has come off of it. Seth McClung went into the rotation and Carlos Villanueva went to the pen. Most importantly, Salomon Torres has emerged as the closer. All of these things have skewed the picture a bit, but here is the current pace for the members of the big league bullpen:
- Salomon Torres 78.75 G / 94.5 IP
- Guillermo Mota 58.5 G / 63.7 IP
- Brain Shouse 74.25 G / 56.25 IP
- # Carlos Villanueva 63.4 G / 72.4 IP (78.2 G / 127.2 IP)
- * David Riske 60 G / 67.3 IP
- % Mark DiFelice 46.3 G / 29.6 IP (50.3 G / 52.6 IP)
- % Tim Dillard 54 G / 56 IP (69 G / 87.3 IP)
# The first set of numbers is what Carlos is on pace for just in relief. In parenthesis are his totals with the starts added in. * This accounts for how Riske was used in games he was available, and then prorates his use taking his missed time into account.
% The first set of numbers a represent the pace they are on in the big leagues. The numbers in parenthesis add in their work in the minor leagues. Now that Torres is in the closers role, his inning count is coming down, as one would expect. That should continue to happen, as long as he closes and keeps him well within the realm of reason. Mota and Shouse both are on pace for pretty reasonable workloads for their roles. Villanueva is a tough nut to crack, because of that time in the rotation. Using just his time in the pen and assuming that he spent the whole year there, he would be on a pace for 91 games and 103.5 innings, which is awfully high in it's own right. Of course, this is based on a fairly small sample size and it's probably too early to draw too many conclusions from it. Still, he is on a pace for too many appearances if his inning count is going to be so high. Dillard and DiFelice are both being somewhat underutilized, especially DiFelice. Now it may be that the fact that since they came up the team has been on a winning streak that has been marked by starters going deep into games, thus making middle relievers less necessary than usual. Of course, Villanueva's overuse in roughly that same time points more in the direction that Yost simply trusts CV more than the two rookies. That is understandable, to a point, but he is going to have to find ways to get Carlos in less and get the other two in a bit more. All in all, Yost is showing some progress in managing his bullpen's workload distribution but he still over relies on his best relievers too much.
More Posts Next page »
|
|
|