SportsBubbler.com



Brewers Pythagorean Record

Since we're now over two months into the season, it makes a lot more sense to really start looking at teams Pythagorean records to assess where they are likely to head.

For those who are unfamiliar with the concept, the basic idea is that by looking at the number of runs a team scores and the number they allow you can figure out roughly how many games a team "should" win if you take out some variables like run distribution, which owes a lot to chance. A more thorough explanation can be found here.

The Brewers recent winning streak at home, which included a few blowout wins, helped bring the team more into line with their Pythagorean record. You can find the current standings on baseballreference.com's league expanded standings.

Heading into play on June 10th, the Brewers Pythagorean record is 31-32, which is two games worse than their actual record of 33-30. A two game split at this point either way doesn't point to much of a difference, so the team is probably a win or two above where they "should be" but that can change quickly with a big win or a big loss.

Going forward, what this tells us is something pretty in line with common sense: The Brewers need to start outscoring their opponents more often. They are currently 11th in the league in runs per game and 10th in the league in runs allowed per game. If those numbers stay where they are, they can expect to end up right about where they are: around .500.

The key is going to be scoring more runs, because it seems like the pitching is probably doing about what you can ask from it with guys like Gallardo and Riske out and Gagne barely useful. They can do that, but will need to get on base more for the big flies to drive the team forward.

Comments

No Comments

About This Blog

Between the Green Pillars is a statistically informed fan blog covering the Milwaukee Brewers at both the major and minor league level.

Become a fan of Between The Green Pillars on Facebook.

Recent Posts

Advertisement

Archives

Syndication