The hottest rumor of the week, perhaps in the whole game, was that the Brewers have an inside track to acquiring the biggest player on the trading block this summer, Cleveland Indian starter and reigning Cy Young award winner CC Sabathia. It's been reported everywhere from ESPN.com's Buster Olney to Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal. When there is this much smoke, chances are very good that there is some sort of fire somewhere.
Which begs the question of whether or not this would be a good thing. On the very surface, it is a very good thing. Chances are good the Brewers would not have to trade anything significant from the current big league roster to acquire Sabathia, so any trade would probably be a pure upgrade to the current big league roster. The problem is that Sabathia is in the final year of his contract and reports are that he wants to test free agency. There has been talk that any trade could be accompanied by a "negotiating window" that would allow his new team a chance to resign him. Can the Brewers afford the kind of contract Sabathia will be looking for, given their coming commitments to the young players already on the roster?
It seems dubious that the Brewers would be able to make a Barry Zito-esque commitment to Sabathia and still retain the young players they have developed, so any trade for Sabathia should be viewed as a likely rental for the rest of the season. After that, he would probably be gone and the Brewers would be left with several draft picks. If that is indeed the case, the Brewers need to be very careful with what they give up to acquire this rental.
The way baseball's basic CBA is structured, players are controlled by their teams for six years, the first three at near league minimum salary and the next three are still generally below the full market value. So when a team trades away top flight prospects, they are trading away not only the production, but a very good production/pay ratio. For a small market team, getting good production at a low cost is essential to winning and thus trading away players with the ability to provide that needs to be done very carefully.
The Brewers have a wealth of hitting talent, especially at the AA level and not that far off from making it to the majors. Many of those players are at least somewhat blocked at the major league level, or are without a definite position at this point, so they might be expendable. There are also some pitchers in the system, but those are mostly younger and at lower levels. The Brewers ability to draft and develop hitting talent at a greater success rate than pitching probably means they can better afford to lose hitting talent than the pitching talent they have.
If the Brewers are going to trade one of the elite players in the system (OF/1B Matt LaPorta, 3B Mat Gamel, RHP Jeremy Jeffress or even C Angel Salome) to land a one year rental player, they need to be fairly certain that the move will come close to ensuring making the postseason. If they make the fall tournament, there is a significant finical boost that accompanies it and they can use that to make some moves to cover for their losses, possibly even sign Ben Sheets or the acquired pitcher long term.
If they do not make it, they will have given up top talent at a cheap and controlled cost and will be left with little to show for it. Given the structure of the team, the fact that the "core" players are young and under control a few more years, it makes more sense to me for the team to look at a multi year option first. Players like Zach Grienke of the Royals, Rich Harden of the A's or Eric Bedard of the Mariners all would fit the bill as players who have at least one more year of team control left, though none is as effective as Sabathia. If bad luck should strike or the team simply isn't as good as it looks over the past 6 weeks or so, at least they would have another shot next year, and possibly beyond, with an alternative to Sabathia.
This is a very high risk and potentially high reward situation the Brewers are looking at. They can dramatically increase their chances at making and winning the playoffs this year by making a move, but the potential to give away a significant piece of the future looms large as well. This is when general managers make or break their team's fortunes and their own careers. Melvin has to exercise caution here, while also aggressively trying to better the team for this year. Ultimately, this doesn't need to be a all or nothing year for the franchise and Melvin needs to make sure he doesn't treat it as such.