September 2008 - Posts

• Now For Something Completely Different...

  Posted Sep 30 2008, 01:11 AM by Ryan Topp

  Playoff euphoria has taken over the city of Milwaukee.

  It's taken over this writer.

  Still, I think it's time to take a step back and look at something that was in the news last week, the fact that the Milwaukee Brewers low class A ball team will be the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers for the next four years.

  On one hand, this is great for the franchise. It makes it easier for those of us living in the Milwaukee area to get out and see the younger players in the Brewer system earlier. It also helps deepen the connection between the Fox River Valley and the major league club in Milwaukee, which can't hurt ticket sales.

  There is one major downside, however. The pitchers who will be coming through Appleton for long stints will by and large be on the young side, as Low A is where pitchers fresh from high school tend to go the year after they're drafted. Young pitchers are particularly susceptible to injury and pitching in cold weather is often cited as a particularly dangerous practice to engage in.

  Well, as JSonline blog poster DEX50 pointed out about 15 posts down in the comment section, the weather in Appleton in April isn't great. His numbers are a bit different than those I found, but the point is still the same: It's cold in April in Wisconsin.

  Of course no one can say for certain that this will cause any problems. It's not like the Brewers moving their Low A team from a Wisconsin locale to a warmer climate (Beloit to West Virginia) a few years ago led to a noticeable decrease in injuries to pitchers in the system, at least on the surface. So maybe this will all come to nothing in the long run. Young pitchers do tend to get hurt in general, so it's not really going to be possible to pin point injuries as "weather related."

  With the success the Brewers have had developing players in general, it seems reasonable to assume they considered all factors and made this decision with open eyes and decided the risk was worth the potential reward. Still, with top flight and fresh from high school pitching prospects like Jake Odorizzi and Seth Linz likely ticketed for the Rattlers early next season, there is good reason to be at least a little concerned here.

  We now return you to your regularly scheduled revelries...

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  Filed under: Milwaukee Brewers, minor leagues

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• Playoff Rotation Triage

  Posted Sep 29 2008, 12:43 AM by Ryan Topp

  The Brewers are not heading into the playoffs with a well rested and perfectly set up rotation. That ship sailed a while ago. What interim manager Dale Sveum is going to have to determine in the coming hours is exactly what he has left and what is the best way to deploy it for the series that starts in Philly on Wednesday.

  So what's left?

  •  CC Sabathia has been a beast. An absolute stud. He's also pitched on short rest his last three starts, going over 100 pitches each time and over 120 on Sunday. I'm starting to think he's actually Superman, but even he had his Kryptonite. The temptation is going to be to try to make him available to pitch twice in the NLDS, but that would mean he would either have to pitch on 3 days rest before game #2 on Thursday or 2 days rest between game #3 and game #5 on Tuesday. There might not be any way to avoid that, however.
    

  •  Dave Bush has been the second most dependable starter since the CC acquisition, but has a 4.50 ERA in September. He's also had trouble on the road (5.14 ERA) and with the longball (29) and those things do not bode well for a start in Philadelphia.
    

  •  Jeff Suppan was aquired largely because he has a good track record in "big games" specifically in the postseason. But if Bush has struggled in September, Suppan has been downright awful with an 8.44 ERA and a HR just about every three innings pitched. They'll probably have to give him a shot at some point, but with a short leash.

  •  Yovani Gallardo being on the mound at all at this point is a miracle and it's generally not wise to push your luck too much with miracles. He's almost certainly a short start at this point, but the Brewers have some options to fill out the rest of a game he starts. He could be a powerful weapon for the Brewers for 3 to 5 innings to keep the Phillies at bay if they're willing to assume the risk.

  •  Manny Parra was struggling mightily in September and looked to be out of gas after back to back short outings against the Phillies and Reds. After a nice rest of seven days, he was able to pitch very effectively (4/0 K/BB and 1 hit) in 2 innings on Saturday versus the Cubs. He probably isn't going to start a game, but he certainly could be used after a short outing from someone else.
    

  •  Seth McClung has only 2 starts since the allstar break, but he is currently one of the few Brewer pitchers overpowering opponents on a regular basis. He could be used for a short start, to piggy back with Gallardo or Parra or even be used as a late inning reliever. At this point his ability to be flexible probably dictates that he be on call in the pen and not tied down to a set starting schedule.

  •  Ben Sheets is apparently done for the year.

  There are a lot of possible ways to deploy these guys and none is a surefire path to success. Were Ned Yost still the manager, the veteran Jeff Suppan would probably be a solid bet to get the call in game #1.

  Here is one man's humble opinion of what the rotation should be:

  Wednesday: Yovani Gallardo (with Parra ready to pitch the middle innings)

  Thursday: Jeff Suppan

  Saturday: CC Sabathia 

  Sunday: Dave Bush

  Tuesday: Yovani Gallardo (with everyone else ready to go if needed)

   

  Yes, this only gives CC one start, but the way he's been used I think it's best to give him the extra time to be fresh and be ready to go. If they rush him back on Thursday, there is a decent chance that his performance would suffer. I can't imagine a worse scenerio than CC not being effective and the team being down in a 0-2 hole heading back to Milwaukee without CC there to help in game #3 or #4.  Yes, there is big risk in running out Yo and Soup in Philly, but if they can scrape out a split the team is in prime position to take a big advantage after a CC start in game #3. Of course then anyone and everyone would be on deck for game #5 should they get there, and as the Cubs showed on Sunday you can keep a team off balance by switching pitchers often in a game.
  

  With 6 comment(s)

  Filed under: Milwaukee Brewers, Pitching Rotation, playoffs

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• Playing With The House's Money

  Posted Sep 28 2008, 09:01 PM by Ryan Topp

  Wow.

  I thought this might be haunting me for a very long time.

  So now that the Brewers are in, as the result of a rather improbable run to get there. They fired their manager, had to basically shred their rotation and had to win on a bunch of walkoffs and late rallies to make it in. The team must be feeling a bit of amazed disbelief at this point.

  The talk about the guys not being "just happy to be there" is already going, and I wouldn't want it any other way. But you have to think there is a feeling of nothing to lose amongst the players, and that is a good thing. More than any other obstacle in September, the Brewers were having trouble with the pressure.

  Well, the pressure that was on the Brewers is gone now. It will certainly be replaced by a whole different sort of pressure, that of trying to take the next step. But they were playing for a group of fans with a 26 year monkey on their backs, and now that is gone. They were playing with the fear of failure and now that is all gone.

  On the other side of the field is the Philadelphia Phillies who made the playoffs last year and exited in a very inglorious manner. For them, just making the playoffs is no longer good enough. They will be playing in front of fans that are not simply thrilled to be there, but who expect and demand wins. One can reasonably hope at this point that the Brewers will come in loose and ready to rock and roll and that the Phillies will have the weight of expectation on them, as they will almost certainly be installed as heavy favorites.

  Maybe the Brewers really are long shots to beat the Phillies at this point. However, if the last 162 games have taught  Brewer fans anything, it is to expect the unexpected.
  

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  Filed under: Milwaukee Brewers

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• Only two options for Mark Attanasio

  Posted Sep 22 2008, 01:20 PM by badger80

  The honeymoon is over.

  Mark Attanasio has had it pretty easy as the owner of the Milwaukee Brewers up to this point.  He took over an organization with a competent front office in place, a budding farm system, and excitement from the local fan base hoping that the youth movement can produce a winner.  Wisely, he added attractions in Miller Park and the number of give-away days to increase interest of the casual fan.  The stadium has been packed all summer, and we're now at the point where fans expect a post season appearance.

  But one September swoon really changed the outlook of this organization.  Manager Ned Yost has been fired and now a decision needs to be made regarding Doug Melvin's future as General Manager of the Milwaukee Brewers.  Melvin has one year left on his contract, which is a terrible situation for a GM who has pressure to win now.

  It's taken 9 years and two GMs to bring some respectability back to baseball in Milwaukee.  Dean Taylor got the ball rolling, hiring Jack Zduriencik and rebuilding the farm system.  Doug Melvin and his staff took over and made some shrewd moves to replenish the talent on the major league roster.  Now Mark Attanasio needs to decide if Melvin is the guy to lead the Milwaukee Brewers in the next phase.

  The young talent is hitting arbitration and will command higher salaries.  The club may not be able to afford the options of some of its veteran talent.  The pitching staff and bullpen are again going to be an off season priority.  Is it time for someone else to mold this roster?

  Lame duck GMs can be prone to making poor long-term decisions as a last attempt to keep their jobs.  Make a high priced off season signing, or ship off some cheap young talent for a cagey veteran to win this year.  We'd all love to win this year, but at what cost?  This is all assuming that an owner like Mark Attanasio would even give his General Manager free reign with one season left on his contract.  Can Melvin effectively do his job if his hands are tied by an uncertain future?

  Now is the time to make a move.  Extend Doug Melvin, or thank him for his hard work and show him the door.  With a roster that is just starting to mature and is now competitive, they can't afford to have indecision in the front office.

  Congratulations Mark, you own a baseball team.  You've given away bobbleheads, signed free agents and let your dad sing the national anthem on Opening Day.  But now you get to make a real decision, one that you'll be held accountable for for years to come.

  With 2 comment(s)

  Filed under: Doug Melvin, MarkAttanasio, Milwaukee Brewers

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• Things Get Weird

  Posted Sep 16 2008, 03:11 AM by Ryan Topp

  So it's been hard to come up with something to say for the last few weeks.

  It seems like a lot more, but it was only 16 days ago that I wrote this and apparently tempted fate.

  Well, now things have gotten strange. The Brewers are in total free fall, the Cubs are no hitting the Astro's in Miller Park and Ned Yost has been fired with 12 games left while the team is still tied for the wildcard lead. Obviously these aren't things that happen very often.

  Ned Yost is obviously a hot button topic amongst Brewer fans. I was never sold that he was the devil that he was made out to be by many, but he was clearly a deeply flawed manager. Could the Brewers have made the postseason with him at the helm this year? We'll never know, but the indicators were obviously not pointing in his direction. I'm very happy to see that he is handling what has to be a shocking disappointment with class.
  

  So what can Dale Sveum do as interim manager over the next 12 games? In a way, he's under almost no pressure because this is someone else's mess that he's being asked to clean up. Expectations are very low. At the same time, he's being handed the keys to a team with more than a slim mathematical chance to make the playoffs. The Brewers merely have to finish better than either the Mets or Phillies, as long as Houston doesn't inject itself into the proceedings, to make the playoffs. If the Sveum managed Brewers pull that off, he instantly becomes a local hero and probably gives himself a chance to ditch the "interim" tag.

  The next 12 games will also undoubtedly go a long way to determining general manager Doug Melvin's future with the team, which means the future of the franchise. Falling further could easily mean that owner Mark Attanasio decides to go a new direction and then the mandate would be change. Make the playoffs and Melvin will probably become further entrenched and his vision for the franchise will rule. Ultimately, though, those issues are for another day.
  

  The Brewers clearly have the talent to pull this off, if a few hitters can get hot. Now all they have to do is win the games and as more than a few smart commentators have pointed out in the last 24 hours, that responsiblity now finally falls on the players and the players alone.

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  Filed under: Doug Melvin, Milwaukee Brewers, Ned Yost

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