The Brewers are not heading into the playoffs with a well rested and perfectly set up rotation. That ship sailed a while ago. What interim manager Dale Sveum is going to have to determine in the coming hours is exactly what he has left and what is the best way to deploy it for the series that starts in Philly on Wednesday.
So what's left?
- CC Sabathia has been a beast. An absolute stud. He's also pitched on short rest his last three starts, going over 100 pitches each time and over 120 on Sunday. I'm starting to think he's actually Superman, but even he had his Kryptonite. The temptation is going to be to try to make him available to pitch twice in the NLDS, but that would mean he would either have to pitch on 3 days rest before game #2 on Thursday or 2 days rest between game #3 and game #5 on Tuesday. There might not be any way to avoid that, however.
- Dave Bush has been the second most dependable starter since the CC acquisition, but has a 4.50 ERA in September. He's also had trouble on the road (5.14 ERA) and with the longball (29) and those things do not bode well for a start in Philadelphia.
- Jeff Suppan was aquired largely because he has a good track record in "big games" specifically in the postseason. But if Bush has struggled in September, Suppan has been downright awful with an 8.44 ERA and a HR just about every three innings pitched. They'll probably have to give him a shot at some point, but with a short leash.
- Yovani Gallardo being on the mound at all at this point is a miracle and it's generally not wise to push your luck too much with miracles. He's almost certainly a short start at this point, but the Brewers have some options to fill out the rest of a game he starts. He could be a powerful weapon for the Brewers for 3 to 5 innings to keep the Phillies at bay if they're willing to assume the risk.
- Manny Parra was struggling mightily in September and looked to be out of gas after back to back short outings against the Phillies and Reds. After a nice rest of seven days, he was able to pitch very effectively (4/0 K/BB and 1 hit) in 2 innings on Saturday versus the Cubs. He probably isn't going to start a game, but he certainly could be used after a short outing from someone else.
- Seth McClung has only 2 starts since the allstar break, but he is currently one of the few Brewer pitchers overpowering opponents on a regular basis. He could be used for a short start, to piggy back with Gallardo or Parra or even be used as a late inning reliever. At this point his ability to be flexible probably dictates that he be on call in the pen and not tied down to a set starting schedule.
There are a lot of possible ways to deploy these guys and none is a surefire path to success. Were Ned Yost still the manager, the veteran Jeff Suppan would probably be a solid bet to get the call in game #1.
Here is one man's humble opinion of what the rotation should be:
Wednesday: Yovani Gallardo (with Parra ready to pitch the middle innings)
Thursday: Jeff Suppan
Saturday: CC Sabathia
Sunday: Dave Bush
Tuesday: Yovani Gallardo (with everyone else ready to go if needed)
Yes, this only gives CC one start, but the way he's been used I think it's best to give him the extra time to be fresh and be ready to go. If they rush him back on Thursday, there is a decent chance that his performance would suffer. I can't imagine a worse scenerio than CC not being effective and the team being down in a 0-2 hole heading back to Milwaukee without CC there to help in game #3 or #4. Yes, there is big risk in running out Yo and Soup in Philly, but if they can scrape out a split the team is in prime position to take a big advantage after a CC start in game #3. Of course then anyone and everyone would be on deck for game #5 should they get there, and as the Cubs showed on Sunday you can keep a team off balance by switching pitchers often in a game.