December 2008 - Posts

  • Prospect #23: Alex Periard

    This year we’ll be releasing our top 25 list in conjunction with the people over at Bernie’s Crew, which means the list is going to posted somewhat out of order to match up with what Jim has for his Top 25. An up-to-date list of the Between the Green Pillars Top 25 can be found at the bottom of the page.

    Alex Periard / RHP / 6’1” 205 LBS / Born 6/15/87

    The first of several Canadians on the list (he gets extra points for being French Canadian), Periard made strides this year but apparently wasn’t quite ready to swim with the big boys just yet. Pitching within the friendly confines of the Florida State League, he held hitters pretty well in check in his 112 2/3 innings there. He induced nearly twice as many ground balls as fly balls while posting a better than 2:1 K to BB ratio. Then he moved to AA Huntsville and things got ugly. His ground ball rate tumbled, he barely struck out one batter for every one he walked and, correspondingly, his ERA jumped over two full points in his 38 innings of work. Things didn’t get any better in the Arizona Fall League for Periard, where he added the ugly tendency to give up homeruns to his repertoire.

    Though things may have gone bad for him late last year, long term things still look fairly promising for Periard. He struggled in his first go around in AA, but he won’t turn 22 until next summer, so he is young enough not to get too concerned about a setback like that. He throws in the low 90’s and induces a lot of ground balls. The Brewers would be well advised to take it slow with Periard, because he is still younger than his competition in most cases and it looks like he has some work to do to master pitching to better competition. Hey, if things don’t work out for him in Milwaukee, he can always go and pitch for Dave Duncan and Tony LaRussa.

    Bernie's Crew Take on Periard

    There are plenty of reasons to be concerned about Alexandre Periard after his struggles in Huntsville and in the Arizona Fall League.  Still, I have to rate him higher than #23 because of his past success and potential.

    As written above, the soon-to-be 22-year old has a pretty good fastball in the low-90s.  He also features a solid change-up and curveball.  Both project to be league average pitches at worst.  Alex throws strikes, gets ground balls, and is still young enough for the struggles in Double-A to be written off by scouts.

    Periard simply was not ready for Double-A ball.  His walk rate jumped from 2.40 BB/9 to 3.79, while the strikeout rate dropped by over a strikeout per nine innings.  The decrease in strikeouts concerned me until he fanned almost a batter per inning in the Arizona Fall League -- which had better talent than the Class AA Southern League.  The right-hander started inducing more grounders than he did in Huntsville.  Also a good sign that the stuff is still there.

    Alexandre Periard simply lost his control.  Why?  I am not sure, but the problem got worse in the AFL.  He most likely has lost confidence in his fastball and is now aiming instead of throwing.  

    Overall, I am not overly concerned about the right-hander's struggles over the second half of the season.  His innings pitched increased by over 40 innings, so some of his control problems could be caused by fatigue.  The fact that his strikeout rate and groundball rates both bounced back in the AFL is also encouraging.  I fully expect Alexandre Periard to enjoy much more success in Huntsville than he experienced in 2008.

    Between the Green Pillars Top 25 Prospects:

    # 25: Evan Frederickson

    # 24: Cody Adam

    #23 Alex Periard

  • Prospect #24: Cody Adams

    This year we’ll be releasing our top 25 list in conjunction with the people over at Bernie’s Crew, which means the list is going to posted somewhat out of order to match up with what Jim has for his Top 25. An up-to-date list of the Between the Green Pillars Top 25 can be found at the bottom of the page.

    Cody Adams / RHP/ 6’2” 180 LBS / Born 11/26/86

    The former Saluki was the final pick of the six the Brewers had in the first two rounds of the 2008 draft. Adams isn’t a dominator at this point in his career, though he throws a low to mid 90’s fastball that he complements with two solid, if underdeveloped, secondary offerings. What stood out most about his college numbers was his ability to avoid the BB, as he barely walked 2 batters per 9 innings. What he doesn’t do is strike out a lot of batters, at least not yet. He’s an extreme ground ball pitcher, allowing more than twice as many ground balls as fly balls in 54 1/3 innings at rookie Helena last year. Correspondingly, he only allowed 3 HR in a homer friendly league. His K:BB ratio was a solid, if totally unspectacular 37:16.

    The trick for Adams going forward will be to build on that strikeout rate while maintaining the other aspects of his game. Brewerfan.net reported in their initial scouting report that there are many who think that Adams will benefit more than most from work on his mechanics, and if that is true there could be significant untapped potential within him. Brewer fans should get a chance to see Adams up close and personal, as he is likely ticketed for Appleton to open the 2009 campaign.

    Bernie's Crew Take On Adams:

    Cody Adams just missed the Top 25 for me, as I want to see more of him before moving him up too much.  His low-90s fastball is fine and he controls it quite well, but his slider and changeup need a lot of work if he is going to succeed at the higher levels.  As cited above, his ground-out to air-out ratio is stellar at 2.16.  His strikeout rate is decent at 6.13 K/9, and he has shown solid control in his first professional season.

    The problem for is that he should succeed in Helena.  His 3.48 ERA is fine, but a collegiate pitcher drafted in the first two rounds should mow down more undisciplined hitters at a better rate.  To me, Cody projects as nothing more than a middle reliever.  His stuff is not dominant enough to star in the back-end of the bullpen, but it is solid.  The fact that he does not walk batters will be a real boon for the right-hander moving up through the system.  I am interested to see how he fares with the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers in 2009.  If his walk rate can stay down without the opponent's batting average skyrocketing, I will be more than happy to move Cody into the Top 25.  Until then, the right-hander hovers right outside at about #27 or #28.

    POTENTIAL: B-

    CHANCE OF REACHING POTENTIAL: C-

    PROJECTED ARRIVAL: 2012/2013

    OVERALL: C

    Jim's Ranking: Unranked

     

    Between the Green Pillars Top 25 Prospects:

    # 25: Evan Frederickson

    # 24: Cody Adams

  • Prospect #25: Evan Frederickson

    This year we’ll be releasing our top 25 list in conjunction with the people over at Bernie’s Crew, which means the list is going to posted somewhat out of order to match up with what Jim has for his Top 25. An up-to-date list of the Between the Green Pillars Top 25 can be found at the bottom of the page.

     

    Evan Frederickson / LHP / 6’6” 240 LBS / Born 9/23/86

    Going into the draft last year there was a lot of talk amongst Brewer fans, who had just watched Eric Gagne and his 10 million dollar deal go up in smoke, that the team should target a college closer with a chance to make a big league impact soon. Well, leave it to Jack Zduriencik to take a college closer with big upside and a lot of work needed early, because that’s what Evan Frederickson is.

    The big lefty has the classic closer stuff, a big fastball that can reach the mid 90’s and a sharp slider. His lack of a third pitch pretty much ensures he’ll be in the bullpen, though the Brewers have been giving him some starts so far to get him innings. How far he goes in the pen will depend on how well he can gain control of his prodigious stuff. He did that pretty well in his 11 2/3 innings at rookie Helena, striking out 16 and walking 5. Then he went to Low A and all hell broke loose, he walked 26 and struck out only 18 in 20 1/3 innings. If he can cut down on the walks and let his stuff take over, he could shoot right through the system and have an impact in the big league bullpen within the next couple of years.

     

    Bernie's Crew take on Frederickson:

    I'm going to preface my thoughts by saying I've been extremely disappointed by Evan Frederickson thus far in his minor league career.  Milwaukee the relatively unknown lefty from San Francisco much higher than almost everyone expected.  Why?  Because he reportedly hit the upper-90s with his fastball in a private workout with the Brewers just before the draft.  The scouting department liked what they say and took a "flier" of sorts on Frederickson.

    Needless to say, he has not lived up to his expectations.  He is extremely unpolished for a collegiate pitcher, and his fastball has been hovering around the low-90s instead of 97-98 MPH.  His slider is still utterly nasty, but that does not help if he cannot find the strike zone with either his fastball or his slider.  His 11.51 BB/9 rate once getting promoted to West Virginia last season raised huge red flags for me.  His mechanics are long and unpolished, and he has not looked like a first supplemental round caliber pitcher.  You can be sure the Brewers will work on developing a change-up with Evan next season.  It will be interesting to see whether or not Frederickson can produce for the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers in 2009.  Even if he continues to only throw in the low-90s next season, that is still above-average for a lefty.  He will get plenty of chances to succeed, but it will depend on his control.  I am not confident he will amount to much in Milwaukee's minor league system, only because he has not given me a reason to believe he will.  I look forward to seeing him pitch in Appleton in 2009.  You can be sure a couple scouting videos will be posted at Bernie's Crew in the spring.

    POTENTIAL: B

    CHANCE OF REACHING POTENTIAL: D+

    PROJECTED ARRIVAL: Unknown

    OVERALL: C-

    Jim's Ranking:  Unranked

     

    Between the Green Pillars Top 25 Prospects:

    25: Evan Frederickson

  • Good Things Come to Those Who Wait

    One of the the things that one typically reads on baseball message boards in November and early December is an exchange like this:

    Person One: Why isn't anything happening with my team yet?

    Person Two: This is how it is in baseball, nothing happens until the winter meetings, then things get cooking.

    Sure, this year's winter meetings saw a few "big names" come off the board, most notably former Brewer CC Sabathia taking the offer he couldn't refuse from the Yankees. But now we're back to a holding pattern again, where little is going on with the market. The cause of this inaction is pretty clearly that the asking prices for a lot of players have not fallen yet to a level where teams are eager to pay, unless that team happens to be in the Bronx:

    Throughout baseball, budgets are being downsized from week to week to reflect the latest read on the economy, and what you are about to see -- once the smoke clears from the Sabathia and Burnett and Teixeira news conferences -- is a stunning drop in salaries for the free agents, a time when solid veteran players might be fortunate to get one-year offers for $5 million to $8 million. General managers throughout the game are reporting, on background, that their payrolls are being locked down, cut down, slashed.

    If Mr. Olney's prognostication is correct (and he's not the only one thinking along these lines) then this is a good time to be willing to spend on short term, veteran players. Incidentally, that is exactly where the Milwaukee Brewers needs stand. As guys like Randy Johnson, Braden Looper, Brain Fuentes and even Adam Dunn or Orlando Hudson come to grips with the New Year reality that the monster deal they thought they had coming to them just isn't there, Melvin can and should be standing there with Mark Attanasio's wallet open.

    This is, of course, assuming two things:

    1. That these players driven to accept less than they thought they could get will be willing to accept that lesser amount from Milwaukee over some other teams, likely in more classically desirable locales.
    2. That the Brewers are looking at less of a financial crunch than your average big league team and aren't in the same sort of fiscal hell that others find themselves in.
    If number two proves to be at least mostly not true (and common sense tells you that they have some wiggle room coming off of the season they had in 2008 and knowing that they could have found a way to pay CC Sabathia had he accepted) and they are able to overcome number one in a few cases, this could be a very productive off-season for the Brewers....if they're willing to wait.
  • What Is Doug Melvin Thinking?

    Yesterday, I mentioned that the Brewers need not do anything rash to make a splash after losing out on the CC Sabathia sweepstakes. Hopefully this won't end up qualifying:

    The Yankees would upgrade with Gold Glove-winner Mike Cameron, who turns 36 next month and is a free agent again after the 2009 season, and the Brewers would get an affordable left-handed bat in 24-year-old switch-hitter Melky Cabrera, who is just entering his arbitration years.

    As McCalvy notes, this was actually discussed a while back as a possibility, along with maybe including some other players in the deal as well.  Unless the Brewers do receive other players, it's hard to see how this deal makes any sense for them.  Going into the off-season, they were looking to upgrade their lineup by adding at least one left handed bat and also add a "true" lead-off man. Ostensibly, that is what Cabrera is, as he bats left handed, doesn't strike out much and runs some. Appearances can, and in this case are, deceiving.

    First off, since his surprising 2006 season, his walk rate and batting average have been dropping. He never had much power, and he has less now than when he came up. He isn't a lead-off hitter unless he bumps both his walk rate and batting average by quite a bit, which is a speculative proposition at best. He doesn't have the sort of power that you would want out of a 6th hitter, unless he taps into some power he's never shown before. Basically, he's a 7th hitter with very limited upside. Mike Cameron takes a lot of guff from fans for the strikeouts and the low batting average, but even accepting those limitations, he really blows away the production that can be expected from Cabrera.

    So then what is the logic behind this move if it isn't about making the team better this season? It has been speculated that a driving force here is the desire to clear salary so that the Brewers can make other moves, such as signing a veteran starter or a closer. Getting a starter on a short term contract makes sense, but considering the offer they had on the table to Sabathia, shouldn't there be at least some room to do that without having to downgrade centerfield significantly? As for using that money to extend a big offer to a closer, that seems like a bad move given the state of the market for relievers this year.

    The other plausible explanation is more disheartening: the team may just be looking to clear his salary because they don't plan on contending this season and don't mind the inevitable drop off. If that's the case, though, then why would they be hot on the trail of a closer? A proven stopper is the last thing that a team not planning on contending needs, as they are almost always better served by just running open auditions for the job until they find someone who can do it.

    So I'm having trouble seeing the logic here. If they plan on contending this year, why are they making a major downgrade in their lineup? If they aren't planning on making a push this season, why would they be looking at short term fixes in the pen and the rotation for big money? Hopefully Melvin will make a string of moves in the coming weeks that illuminates the wisdom of this trade. He'll need to, because right now, this is a pretty big head-scratcher.

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