Prospect #25: Evan Frederickson

Published Dec 29 2008, 01:36 AM by Ryan Topp
This year we’ll be releasing our top 25 list in conjunction with the people over at Bernie’s Crew, which means the list is going to posted somewhat out of order to match up with what Jim has for his Top 25. An up-to-date list of the Between the Green Pillars Top 25 can be found at the bottom of the page.

 

Evan Frederickson / LHP / 6’6” 240 LBS / Born 9/23/86

Going into the draft last year there was a lot of talk amongst Brewer fans, who had just watched Eric Gagne and his 10 million dollar deal go up in smoke, that the team should target a college closer with a chance to make a big league impact soon. Well, leave it to Jack Zduriencik to take a college closer with big upside and a lot of work needed early, because that’s what Evan Frederickson is.

The big lefty has the classic closer stuff, a big fastball that can reach the mid 90’s and a sharp slider. His lack of a third pitch pretty much ensures he’ll be in the bullpen, though the Brewers have been giving him some starts so far to get him innings. How far he goes in the pen will depend on how well he can gain control of his prodigious stuff. He did that pretty well in his 11 2/3 innings at rookie Helena, striking out 16 and walking 5. Then he went to Low A and all hell broke loose, he walked 26 and struck out only 18 in 20 1/3 innings. If he can cut down on the walks and let his stuff take over, he could shoot right through the system and have an impact in the big league bullpen within the next couple of years.

 

Bernie's Crew take on Frederickson:

I'm going to preface my thoughts by saying I've been extremely disappointed by Evan Frederickson thus far in his minor league career.  Milwaukee the relatively unknown lefty from San Francisco much higher than almost everyone expected.  Why?  Because he reportedly hit the upper-90s with his fastball in a private workout with the Brewers just before the draft.  The scouting department liked what they say and took a "flier" of sorts on Frederickson.

Needless to say, he has not lived up to his expectations.  He is extremely unpolished for a collegiate pitcher, and his fastball has been hovering around the low-90s instead of 97-98 MPH.  His slider is still utterly nasty, but that does not help if he cannot find the strike zone with either his fastball or his slider.  His 11.51 BB/9 rate once getting promoted to West Virginia last season raised huge red flags for me.  His mechanics are long and unpolished, and he has not looked like a first supplemental round caliber pitcher.  You can be sure the Brewers will work on developing a change-up with Evan next season.  It will be interesting to see whether or not Frederickson can produce for the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers in 2009.  Even if he continues to only throw in the low-90s next season, that is still above-average for a lefty.  He will get plenty of chances to succeed, but it will depend on his control.  I am not confident he will amount to much in Milwaukee's minor league system, only because he has not given me a reason to believe he will.  I look forward to seeing him pitch in Appleton in 2009.  You can be sure a couple scouting videos will be posted at Bernie's Crew in the spring.

POTENTIAL: B

CHANCE OF REACHING POTENTIAL: D+

PROJECTED ARRIVAL: Unknown

OVERALL: C-

Jim's Ranking:  Unranked

 

Between the Green Pillars Top 25 Prospects:

25: Evan Frederickson

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Comments

 

Jim Breen said:

I'm going to preface my thoughts by saying I've been extremely disappointed by Evan Frederickson thus far in his minor league career.  Milwaukee the relatively unknown lefty from San Francisco much higher than almost everyone expected.  Why?  Because he reportedly hit the upper-90s with his fastball in a private workout with the Brewers just before the draft.  The scouting department liked what they say and took a "flier" of sorts on Frederickson.

Needless to say, he has not lived up to his expectations.  He is extremely unpolished for a collegiate pitcher, and his fastball has been hovering around the low-90s instead of 97-98 MPH.  His slider is still utterly nasty, but that does not help if he cannot find the strike zone with either his fastball or his slider.  His 11.51 BB/9 rate once getting promoted to West Virginia last season raised huge red flags for me.  His mechanics are long and unpolished, and he has not looked like a first supplemental round caliber pitcher.  You can be sure the Brewers will work on developing a change-up with Evan next season.  It will be interesting to see whether or not Frederickson can produce for the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers in 2009.  Even if he continues to only throw in the low-90s next season, that is still above-average for a lefty.  He will get plenty of chances to succeed, but it will depend on his control.  I am not confident he will amount to much in Milwaukee's minor league system, only because he has not given me a reason to believe he will.  I look forward to seeing him pitch in Appleton in 2009.  You can be sure a couple scouting videos will be posted at Bernie's Crew in the spring.

POTENTIAL: B

CHANCE OF REACHING POTENTIAL: D+

PROJECTED ARRIVAL: Unknown

OVERALL: C-

Jim's Ranking:  Unranked

December 29, 2008 8:52 AM
 

Ryan Topp said:

I see where you're coming from on that, though I think your grade for "chance of reaching potential" is somewhat low, especially compared to Anundsen.

Generally, I'm not too excited about guy's who have a "closer" ceiling early on in their pro career, because relievers only have so much value to begin with. But this case provides a good contrast. Frederickson has the stuff (or at least did have the stuff) to be a closer at the big league level. Anundsen has the ability to maybe make the majors at some point, but probably as nothing more than a place holder. Considering that Frederickson has such limited time in pro ball, I think giving him some benefit of the doubt is in order.

In the end I'm probably giving Frederickson an edge here due to draft position, which I think is somewhat defensible early on in a guy's career. Generally, there is some reason that he was taken where he was.

He's a guy to watch, but I think you're right to be concerned about the BB issues.

December 29, 2008 2:33 PM

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