Prospect #21 Brad Nelson

Published Jan 05 2009, 02:08 AM by Ryan Topp

 This year we’ll be releasing our top 25 list in conjunction with the people over at Bernie’s Crew, which means the list is going to posted somewhat out of order to match up with what Jim has for his Top 25. An up-to-date list of the Between the Green Pillars Top 25 can be found at the bottom of the page.

Brad Nelson / 1B / 6’2” 255 LBS / Born 12/23/82

2008 marked the return of Brad Nelson to the prospect radar after a lengthy absence. Since being named the Brewer’s Prospect of the Year in 2002 at the age of 19, Nelson’s career had fallen on hard times. Then last year in his second full season at AAA Nashville, he posted a solid and much improved (.286/.380/.480) line. For that good work he was rewarded with a late season call-up, where he contributed a couple of hits during the Brewers playoff push. ;At the plate, Nelson’s greatest attribute is his patience, evident in his 13 percent walk rate in 2008. His home run power (18 in AAA last year) is somewhat limited for a first base, but he does hit a lot of doubles (36) which helps. At one point people looked at his doubles power and discipline and assumed that he was a big HR threat waiting to break out, but that hasn’t materialized.

Nelson may, at some point, get a shot to start in the majors, though the fact that he is currently blocked at first by Prince Fielder makes it unlikely he will ever get that chance in Milwaukee. His main value to the team at this point is as a lefty bat off the bench and as an injury insurance policy for Prince Fielder. If Nelson does want to work his way into a starting gig, he’ll need to prove that last years step forward at AAA was not a product of repeating the level and take another step forward by hitting some in the majors. He would also benefit from losing a little weight making him a more viable corner OF sub, which would make it easier to carry him on the roster and get him those AB’s at the big league level. 

Bernie's Crew Take On Nelson:

While Brad Nelson is no longer one of the elite prospects in Milwaukee's system, I believe he rather underrated.  I understand that people want more home runs than 18 out of Nelson at first base, but he does more than enough at the plate to stick at first.  He reminds me of Lyle Overbay, which should be taken as a big complement.  His slugging and doubles have been climbing steadily from year to year, and his power seems to have settled around the 20 HR plateau.  Not superstar potential by any means, but he could be very effective at the plate.

You are quite right to note that one of his biggest strengths is his patience.  In 2008, his walk rate increased to 13.3% and his stirkeout rate plummeted to 16.2%.  For comparative purposes, Bill Hall strikes out 30.7% of his plate appearances.  Brad Nelson does not strike out, has average home run power with above-average gap power, while still drawing close to 80 walks in a shortened minor league season.  Marcel projects he could hit .271 with a .345 OBP in Milwaukee this season, most likely off the bench.  I think Brewer fans would take that.

As far as his weight is concerned, I'm torn.  One would think it makes sense for him to lose weight, as he would gain speed and defensive versatility.  The problem is that he tried that a couple years back and his offensive numbers dropped off dramatically.  Thus, he regained the weight and started clobbering the ball once again.  I think the weight -- which is not terrible, by the way -- is here to stay.

Between the Green Pillars Top 25 Prospects:

# 25: Evan Frederickson

# 24: Cody Adam

#23: Alex Periard

#22: Brent Brewer
Filed under: ,
Link this   E-mail This Link

Comments

 

Jim Breen said:

While Brad Nelson is no longer one of the elite prospects in Milwaukee's system, I believe he rather underrated.  I understand that people want more home runs than 18 out of Nelson at first base, but he does more than enough at the plate to stick at first.  He reminds me of Lyle Overbay, which should be taken as a big complement.  His slugging and doubles have been climbing steadily from year to year, and his power seems to have settled around the 20 HR plateau.  Not superstar potential by any means, but he could be very effective at the plate.

You are quite right to note that one of his biggest strengths is his patience.  In 2008, his walk rate increased to 13.3% and his stirkeout rate plummeted to 16.2%.  For comparative purposes, Bill Hall strikes out 30.7% of his plate appearances.  Brad Nelson does not strike out, has average home run power with above-average gap power, while still drawing close to 80 walks in a shortened minor league season.  Marcel projects he could hit .271 with a .345 OBP in Milwaukee this season, most likely off the bench.  I think Brewer fans would take that.

As far as his weight is concerned, I'm torn.  One would think it makes sense for him to lose weight, as he would gain speed and defensive versatility.  The problem is that he tried that a couple years back and his offensive numbers dropped off dramatically.  Thus, he regained the weight and started clobbering the ball once again.  I think the weight -- which is not terrible, by the way -- is here to stay.

January 5, 2009 12:20 PM

Leave a Comment

(required )  
(optional )
(required )  
Add

About This Blog

Between the Green Pillars is a statistically informed fan blog covering the Milwaukee Brewers at both the major and minor league level.

Become a fan of Between The Green Pillars on Facebook.

Tags

Advertisement

Brewer Blog Roll

Other Blogs

Reference Sites

Syndication