Now or Later?

Brewers Principal Owner Mark Attanasio and General Manager Doug Melvin chatted it up on MLB.com earlier tonight and a few little nuggets of info popped out, this being the most interesting to me....

jaybrew82: I've been somewhat keeping tab of the team's payroll and I see it currently at about $75M. Thank you Mark for raising the payroll! But, my question is... last year we were in the mid $80's. Couldn't we offer Sheets a 1-yr deal in the $8 mill range?
Mark: We are currently between $80 and $85 million. Doug is assessing our options and deciding between signing a starter now or preserving flexibility to pursue roster additions during the season. By the way, it is our understanding at this time, that Ben is pursuing a multiyear deal.

We already sort of knew most of that. The speculations on where the payroll stood have been out there on various interweb sites for a while, and most have conceded that after the Brewers signed Hoffman the team was close to where they opened the 2008 season. Considering the declining economy and the loss of big draw CC Sabathia, that seems like a reasonable place for 2009, at least to start. Which brings us to the issue raised in the rest of the response, which is should the team spend on a starter now or should they wait and see what becomes available in midseason?

On the side of spending on a starter now:

  • As it currently stands, the Brewers will be sending out two young pitchers who will likely be on at least somewhat limited pitch and inning counts (Yo Gallardo and Manny Parra), two pitchers who have recently topped out around 200 innings, but have slipped below that count often (Dave Bush and Jeff Suppan) and one guy who has no track record eating innings (Seth McClung). This is after losing two guys who routinely went into the late innings last summer (Ben Sheets and CC Sabathia), taking pressure off the bullpen. So what where are the innings going to come from if it's not from another starter? What about an injury that occurs early on, before (and if) Capuano is ready or teams start dealing?
  • The market for players is as good as it has been in years. Unless they were lucky enough to be coveted by the Evil Empire, pretty much no free agent who has signed has gotten close to their original asking price this offseason. That would lead one to believe that there are opportunities for bargains out there, if a team is willing to spend.
  • If the team does make a move for a starter (or any other player) during next season, they will have to give up talent to land them.

On the side of waiting:

  • The rotation, as it stands, might be able to get the job done. Gallardo could emerge as a legitmate ace, Parra and Bush might fall in place as solid complimentary peices while McClung and Suppan eat up innings at the back end effectively. Or, if one of them isn't able to get the job done, Chris Capuano could come back and be an effective starter at some point.
  • Piggy-backing off the above point, it may be that another need emerges mid-season, due to injury or ineffectiveness, and the money being spent on the starter prohibits the Brewers from addressing a more pressing need, even though there are solutions to be had on the market.
  • There is a good possibility that any mid year deal could take the form of a "salary dump" where the primary return for the team giving up the talent is taking money off the books, and very little is given up in the way of prospects. In the past, that sort of "dump" has been the province (mostly) of teams like the Yankees and Cubs who have giant budgets, but if the Brewers have space to spend and a team is desperate, it could happen here too.

It should be apparent at this point that this is a tough call for a GM trying to assemble a team on a budget. There is the chance that if the team waits and does nothing that disaster strikes and the team falls out of the race before anything can be done to fix the problem. There is also the chance that if they make a move now, they won't get what they need and instead leave themselves open to other problems they can't fix. This is why general managers get the big bucks, to make the tough decisions and take the heat from fans.

Personally, I would have rather spent the money that went to Trevor Hoffman on a starter in the Randy Wolf or Braden Looper vein and found another option at closer, but that ship has sailed. Whatever Melvin ends up deciding to do here, it's going to be rabbits foot time for Brewer fans heading to opening day 2009, hoping he guessed right.

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