This year we’ll be releasing our top 25 list in conjunction with the people over at Bernie’s Crew,
which means the list is going to posted somewhat out of order to match
up with what Jim has for his Top 25. An up-to-date list of the Between the Green Pillars Top 25 can be found at the bottom of the page.
Jon
Lucroy / C / 6’0” 195 LBS / 6/13/86
It wasn’t long ago that prospect watchers knocked the Brewers inability to draft and develop catchers. That is all in the past, though, as the Brewers now have three potential major league catchers in their system. Jon Lucroy, taken out of the University of Louisiana-Lafayette in the third round of the 2007 draft, is perhaps the best bet of the three to be good enough defensively to stick as an everyday catcher in the long term. In fact, he is probably the most balanced position player prospect the Brewers have, which is why he’s so high on the list despite lacking any one exceptional tool.
From the moment he started in pro ball, Lucroy has hit the ball. In the Pioneer League in 2007 he posted a (.342/.383/.487/.871) line in 234 AB’s. The one thing that was lacking in that performance was homerun power (4), but he hit 18 doubles and 2 triples, so clearly there was some power at work there. That homerun power showed up in 2008, when Lucroy hit 10 HR in both Low and High A in roughly the same number of AB’s (239 in Low A and 236 at High A) which is quite an accomplishment considering how much harder it is to hit HR in the FSL than in the Sally league. In fact, considering park effects, it’s quite arguable that his (.292/.364/.479/.843) line a High A represented a step forward over his seemingly superior (.310/.391/.510/.901) line at Low A. Besides the improvement in homerun hitting, Lucroy also demonstrated an increased willingness to take walks. He is a polished hitter, not overly pull happy and able to handle whatever pitchers throw at him. There is always concern with catcher that the time they will have to put in on their defense will stunt their growth as a hitter, but Lucroy is showing no signs of that thus far. At this point, his offensive game appears to have a good shot at being league average or better for a catcher at the major league level.
Lucroy doesn’t have great defensive tools, but he’s made the best of what he does have. He’s reasonably athletic, but has an average arm, at best. He threw out 45% of base runners that attempted to steal on him, a remarkable number for a guy without a great arm and dealing with young pitchers not accustomed to preventing the stolen base. That leaves hope that he can use the arm he does have to prevent big league runners from going wild on him down the road. He made 8 errors and allowed 10 passed balls, neither of which is a good number and both need to be improved upon. Still, most feel that his leadership qualities and game calling ability will help make up for some of the shortcomings and he should be able to stick behind the plate as an everyday player.
Jon Lucroy is clearly the least talented player of the three catching prospects in the top 10 of this list. However, as I said before, he’s probably the most likely to actually stay at and play decently at the catcher position, so he gets nudged ahead of the other two for the time being. He’ll move up to AA this year and it will be interesting to see what that does offensively, especially power wise. If he continues to improve his footwork behind the plate and doesn’t see too big a drop-off in his CS rate over the next year plus, he could find himself in the majors playing regularly by the end of 2010.
Between the Green Pillars Top 25 Prospects:
# 25: Evan Frederickson
# 24: Cody Adams
#23: Alex Periard
#22: Brent Brewer
#21: Brad Nelson
#20: RJ Seidel
#19: Tim Dillard
# 18: Seth Lintz
# 17: Efrain Nieves
#16: Erik Komatsu
#15: Cody Scarpetta
#14: Omar Aguilar
#13: Cutter Dykstra
#12: Zach Braddock
#11: Caleb Gindl
#10: Jake Odorizzi
#9: Cole Gillespie
#8: Lorenzo Cain
#7: Brett Lawrie
#6: Taylor Green
#5: Angel Salome