February 2009 - Posts

  • Is Rickie Weeks a leadoff hitter?

    Before we delve into this question, I would like to take the time to introduce myself and present what I plan to bring to Between the Green Pillars. My name is Ross LaVenture and I've been a Brewers fan my entire life. What I plan to bring to Between the Green Pillars is a comparative look at statistics of active players compared to the Brewers' players. They will be similar to the ones I've posted on the Message Board. Most of you have read my posts/comparisons in the message boards, but if you haven't here's a list:
    1. Rickie Weeks
    2. Rotations and Rotation Depth in the NL
    3. A Look at the Brewers Offensively
    Many people have argued that he is miscast as a leadoff hitter. What he's accomplished in the minors suggests he is, but what he has done so far in is major league career makes him a quality option as a leadoff hitter, in my mind. (I personally only care about OBP for a leadoff hitter, unless he's slugging over .500.) You can argue that if he was dropped in the lineup and allowed to swing away he would live up to his potential better, but as it stands now he is an above average leadoff hitter. I've got three tables in this blog that have statistics from just the leadoff spot. The requirements for the first table are at least 400 PA in 2008. This would be over half of the PA a leadoff hitter should see if he bats the whole year in that spot. Only 19 players qualified in 2008.
    Name PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO HBP SF BA OBP SLG%
    Rickie Weeks 528 447 105 22 6 11 39 62 106 14 4 .235 .343 .385
    Brian Roberts 702 609 181 51 8 9 57 82 104 2 6 .297 .379 .452
    Ichiro Suzuki 748 686 213 20 7 6 42 50 65 5 4 .310 .360 .386
    Willy Taveras 421 378 91 13 2 1 22 28 65 4 2 .241 .299 .294
    Alfonso Soriano 492 443 127 27 0 29 75 42 100 3 4 .287 .350 .544
    Ian Kinsler 578 514 165 41 4 18 71 44 66 6 3 .321 .377 .521
    Jacoby Ellsbury 544 497 135 21 7 5 37 34 74 6 3 .272 .324 .372
    Johnny Damon 606 541 165 27 5 17 70 61 79 1 1 .305 .376 .468
    Chone Figgins 512 445 125 14 1 1 22 62 80 3 0 .281 .373 .324
    Carlos Gomez 415 394 97 16 4 5 33 15 97 4 0 .246 .281 .345
    David Dejesus 461 415 133 22 7 1 57 34 50 5 3 .320 .376 .480
    Hanley Ramirez 622 533 162 32 4 32 63 79 107 8 2 .304 .400 .559
    Grady Sizemore 745 634 170 39 5 33 90 98 130 11 2 .268 .374 .502
    Curtis Granderson 590 517 143 24 13 20 63 68 106 3 1 .277 .363 .489
    Jose Reyes 763 688 204 37 19 16 68 66 82 1 3 .297 .358 .475
    Jimmy Rolins 593 526 148 37 9 11 58 56 53 5 3 .281 .354 .449
    Akinori Iwamura 706 626 172 30 9 6 48 70 130 4 3 .275 .350 .380
    Orlando Cabrera 588 533 156 30 1 6 51 44 57 0 9 .293 .341 .386
    Skip Schumaker 536 485 150 21 5 7 43 45 51 2 1 .309 .370 .416
    This next table is for those players who had 1000 PA in the leadoff spot from 2006-2008. There are 18 guys who qualified.
    Name PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO HBP SF BA OBP SLG%
    Rickie Weeks 1279 1076 270 51 13 35 101 149 266 41 8 .251 .361 .420
    Brian Roberts 2039 1784 518 125 16 30 166 226 268 2 15 .290 .368 .429
    Ichiro Suzuki 2236 2059 675 62 18 21 159 148 213 13 8 .328 .375 .406
    Willy Taveras 1178 1066 296 37 6 4 62 70 170 18 4 .278 .332 .335
    Alfonso Soriano 1679 1526 453 105 6 101 225 128 351 14 9 .297 .355 .572
    David Eckstein 1130 1014 301 45 1 6 65 59 74 32 10 .297 .352 .361
    Dave Roberts 1066 944 256 35 22 4 69 100 140 4 5 .271 .342 .368
    Johnny Damon 1857 1653 453 88 10 53 210 193 240 7 9 .284 .360 .446
    Chone Figgins 1376 1199 333 43 10 9 102 152 215 5 13 .278 .358 .353
    Juan Pierre 1158 1084 308 44 17 3 60 47 63 11 2 .284 .320 .364
    David Dejesus 1568 1380 404 79 21 16 153 131 183 35 11 .293 .369 .415
    Hanley Ramirez 1740 1534 480 112 21 67 174 175 288 16 7 .313 .387 .544
    Grady Sizemore 2199 1880 523 123 20 83 240 270 431 40 8 .278 .374 .497
    Curtis Granderson 1864 1656 470 92 43 61 198 180 401 10 8 .284 .356 .462
    Jose Reyes 2227 2013 589 103 48 47 206 195 241 3 4 .293 .358 .462
    Jimmy Rolins 2007 1818 523 115 34 66 221 156 205 16 14 .288 .347 .497
    Akinori Iwamura* 1180 1048 287 48 17 12 77 112 233 5 8 .274 .344 .386
    Rafael Furcal 1483 1226 394 63 15 26 123 140 171 2 3 .321 .391 .461
    The final table is the career stats from the leadoff position for the guys mentioned in either 2008 or 2006-2008 tables.
    Name PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO HBP SF BA OBP SLG%
    Rickie Weeks 1338 1127 285 51 13 39 111 156 280 41 9 .253 .362 .425
    Brian Roberts 3981 3491 1002 244 29 57 335 420 510 7 26 .287 .362 .423
    Ichiro Suzuki 5851 5392 1783 194 64 72 463 372 519 38 27 .331 .376 .430
    Willy Taveras 1707 1565 441 48 8 6 83 89 256 23 7 .282 .328 .334
    Alfonso Soriano 3296 3037 891 205 13 183 415 198 668 38 18 .293 .342 .550
    Ian Kinsler 712 626 198 47 5 22 83 62 87 8 7 .316 .381 .513
    Jacoby Ellsbury 607 553 151 24 7 6 41 40 82 7 6 .273 .328 .374
    Johnny Damon 7159 6383 1845 345 65 159 743 653 772 31 57 .289 .355 .438
    Chone Figgins 2248 1982 567 75 27 16 172 224 330 5 16 .286 .357 .375
    Carlos Gomez 415 394 97 16 4 5 33 15 97 4 0 .246 .281 .345
    David Dejesus 2300 2028 598 115 27 40 228 189 279 46 16 .295 .366 .437
    Hanley Ramirez 1740 1534 480 112 21 67 174 175 288 16 7 .313 .387 .544
    Grady Sizemore 2810 2430 683 156 31 103 312 317 546 47 10 .281 .373 .498
    Curtis Granderson 1933 1721 486 94 44 63 202 184 421 10 8 .282 .354 .498
    Jose Reyes 3193 2931 840 143 66 58 281 226 350 5 9 .286 .338 .440
    Jimmy Rolins 4354 3967 1124 243 73 108 424 328 493 26 21 .283 .340 .463
    Akinori Iwamura 1180 1048 287 48 17 12 77 112 233 5 8 .274 .344 .386
    Orlando Cabrera 979 896 245 51 7 13 82 63 94 1 11 .273 .318 .390
    Skip Schumaker 556 504 154 21 6 7 43 46 54 2 1 .306 .365 .413
    David Ecstein 4104 3622 1039 157 16 28 279 268 291 112 30 .287 .352 .362
    Dave Roberts 2888 2545 675 82 51 21 191 276 336 15 14 .265 .339 .362
    Juan Pierre 4623 4234 1266 152 61 12 281 255 255 50 10 .299 .345 .372
    Rafael Furcal 4839 4321 1236 209 52 81 398 439 604 13 29 .286 .352 .415
    Admittedly Weeks did struggle in 2008 as a leadoff hitter as he finished 15/19 in OBP of those who qualified. A .217/.320/.323 first half line doesn't help, though. (.263/.378/.451 2nd half line) There were other players who had better than normal years in 2008 as well. Comparing Weeks and the other 17 players who qualified for table 2, Weeks has been a much better option the last 3 years as he finished 7/18 in OBP over that span.

    A couple of other notes I have are:

    1. How bad is Ichiro going to be when he can't leg out 50 infield singles a year?
    2. How is it that just under 2/3 of the team have a consistent leadoff hitter, but Weeks isn't a leadoff hitter?
    3. I've brought this up in a post on the Brewers message board, but the chances for a Weeks "breakout" this year are very good.
  • Prospect Tidbits

    As you get set for the first spring training game, I thought you might like a quick rundown of what prospect analyst John Sickels, who writes at minorleagueball.com thinks about some of the Brewer prospects. His annual book is a must read for me, and something that I would highly recommend to anyone who wants another perspective on prospects. Here are some highlights....

    • In his top 50 hitters, he ranks Mat Gamel 16th and former Brewer Prospect Matt LaPorta 29th. No one else is ranked, which is notable considering just about every other outlet has shortstop Alcides Escobar in their top 50 overall prospects. Jeremy Jeffress checked in 27th on the top 50 pitchers list.
    • Sickels was one of the few outlets out there to note RHP Blakeney Billings, the Brewers 19th round pick in the 2008 draft as a guy to keep an eye on. Baseball America didn't even mention him anywhere in their depth chart at all, even beyond the top 30. Sickels gave him a "C" grade and talked about him as being a good projection pick.
    • He's backed off of his praise for Michael Brantley, who was the final piece sent to Cleveland in the CC Sabathia trade, just a bit. Last year, he was talking him up as a big breakout cannidate, and he really did have a fantasitc year with the bat. At the very end of his writeup this year, though, he's talking about him as a potential 4th outfielder. That makes a lot of sense considering his inability to start at a defensive position where his lack of power wouldn't be a problem.
    • Sickels is more positive than most on Lorenzo Cain's ability in the field, calling him a "fine defensive outfielder" and saying that he can play center until he starts to slow down. If that is the case, and he continues to improve at the plate, he believes Cain is on track to start in center for the Brewers next year.
    • He's not as bullish as some on Cutter Dykstra, using the same sort of line that was often used about Tony Gwynn Jr. when he was drafted that if it weren't for the last name, he probably would have gone later.
    • As for Escobar, Sickels is still questioning whether or not he'll hit enough to be an everyday starter at the big league level. After last year, his (and my) opinion on his ability to do so has improved a lot, and he cites his youth, but the "B" grade is on the low end of what others who rate prospects would give him if they used the system.
    • Cole Gillespie gets a Jason Bay comp, which doesn't jive all that well with the "C+" grade, though it appears the point was more that he gets the most out of the tools he has than an actual ceiling projection.
    • Sickels believes that newly aquired RHP Nick Green would be better off in relief, says that his changeup is one of the best he's seen in the minors "in the last 5 years" and his writeup generally suggests to me a Carlos Villanueva type, which would be outstanding.
    • Jeremy Jeffress gets a "B" this year, though he is open to moving that grade up as high as an A- if he can improve his control and changeup. He's also pretty conservative with the timetable, projecting 2010 or 2011 barring a "sudden leap forward"
    • Jon LuCroy gets a solid "B" grade and Sickels believes that "his remaining defensive flaws can be fixed with experience" which is good news for those worried about how his arm will play at the major league level.
    • Though Eduardo Morlan's health is a concern, he gets a C+ "with higher potential if healthy"
    • Sickels really likes Jake Odorizzi, calling him "one of my favorite prep prospects." He makes a body comparison to Zach Greinke at the same age, but does hedge a bit when talking about the secondary offerings.
    • Judging by the comments about Wily Peralta, Sickels seems to think that he's more likely to end up a reliever in the long run than in the rotation, though he says "his ceiling is intriguing either way.
    • LHP Josh Romanski gets a somewhat surprising "C+" grade, considering that guys like Efrain Nieves, Seth Linz and Zach Braddock all graded out as "C" type guys, so it would be a good idea to pay close attention to him this season.
    • RHP Cody Scarpetta gets an official "Sleeper Alert!!" marking this year, along with a "C+" grade, so you can add another to the long list of people who think that Scarpetta has a chance to be special.
    • Baseball America doesn't even list Catcher Shawn Zarraga as being among the Brewers top 7 prospects behind the dish, but that doesn't stop Sickels from giving him a "C" grade and rating him as "worth watching"
    Enjoy the game today!
  • Slotting the Bullpen

    One of the more frequent complaints of those in the Sabermetric community about how bullpens are managed is a lack of flexibility that would allow a manager to use his best arms at the time in the game when they would be most useful for preserving a lead. Much of that criticism is generally focused on the notion that a teams best reliever should come in to get three outs to start the 9th inning in any game where the lead is between one and three runs. Beyond that, though, is the greater tendency of managers to lock guys into specialized roles and then leave them there despite the other circumstances that might arise.

    Brewer fans that worry about such things will probably take heart in this line of thought from Manager Ken Macha:

    "I will probably sit down with the bullpen guys and say, 'We've got one guy with a role here, and that's the closer,'" Macha said. "That's what I've done in my previous job, and the reason is that you might be going into the seventh inning and facing the heart of [the other team's] order. You might as well put your top guy out there in that inning because the game's on the line then."

    So besides bowing to the bare minimum requirement of the LaRussian Bullpen, the closer, it sounds like Macha wants to keep his options open for where he's going to deploy his guys this year. If we believe that, there will be no "he's my 8th inning guy" excuses coming from the managers office like last year.

    What is interesting is that the players don't seem to necessarily buy it:

    So it came as no surprise to Riske that Macha was talking about being flexible with roles.
    "That always gets said in Spring Training, and then they always end up working themselves out," Riske said. "The way people pitch is what slots them into roles, so I just worry about getting outs."

    and

    "I think the roles will always define themselves," Villanueva said. "As the season goes on, I think [Macha] will use certain guys in certain situations, but a guy can't pitch every day. If the guy who throws the eighth inning goes four days in a row, someone else is going to have to do the fifth day. Whether he assigns us roles or not, I see it working either way."

    Riske is right about that. Managers do frequently say that they're not going to be a slave to some predetermined order which dictates they put X reliever into a given situation, and then cave. Macha's predecessor often said things along those lines, and then would relent and find safety in taking the decision out of his own hands by setting up roles for his guys. Ultimately, there is some safety for managers in creating roles and then sticking to them. It cuts down the second guessing that fans like to engage in when a manager brings in a guy who ends up blowing a lead, at least in the short term.

    There is also the matter of the relievers themselves. Some relievers will swear that they pitch better when they know their role and can anticipate when they'll be coming into a game. Managers often use this as an excuse for creating and sticking to strict roles for the guys in their pen, and it's hard to say for sure that they're wrong to do so. As Villanueva points out, however, a manager can't stick to roles 100% because guys can only pitch so many days in a row and so many innings total. That mandates at least some flexibility.

    The main problem with trying to stick to set roles in the bullpen is that it is very rare to have multiple relievers go through a season pitching well the whole time. Baseball is a game of ups and downs and no other role is quite as volatile as relief pitching. Often, by the time a guy has established himself as a solid and reliable option he has moved right through an upswing and will soon find himself out of that important role due to lack of effectiveness. The result is often a tail chasing exercise, where a guy pitches important innings not because he is currently pitching well, but because he was pitching well two weeks before.

    If Macha is able to stick to his plan of using relievers flexibly from day to day, he probably can squeeze a little more out of the bullpen, though it may well be at the expense of some fan and player goodwill. So far, Macha has shown little interest in those things, so maybe he can pull it off. It will be one of the many interesting things to watch for this season with a new skipper at the helm.

  • Prospect Chat: Part III

    Now that the top 25 lists are done, it's time to talk about the state of the system with a few of the people who put in work on those lists. Jim Breen, the author of the list over at Bernie's Crew and BC contributor Aaron Kittell will join Pillars’ regulars Ryan Topp and Jay Montague in discussing who ended up where and why, general trends within the system and taking a look forward at where the system is headed.

    For Part I we looked at the big picture positives and negatives in the system. In Part II, the subject was the bevy of young pitching talent in the lower levels of the system. Today, we'll look at catching. You have to go back to Mike Matheny to find the last regular starting catcher the Milwaukee farm system produced and you have to go all the way to Dave Nilson to find one who could hit. Those distinctions aren't going to last much longer, because the Brewers are now loaded to the gills with hard-hitting catching prospects. How do you see the catcher position shaping up in the short and long term?

     

    Jim: I am terribly conflicted about what will happen for Milwaukee behind the plate in the coming years.  Angel Salome appears to be the catcher of the future for the Crew, but it is unclear whether or not his defense and unorthodox style at the plate will translate to the big leagues. He has all the tools to become an All-Star backstop, but he is further away than many believe. The 22-year old is still quite raw behind the dish.

     

    Aaron: I'm with Jim on this one, though much less conflicted. I think Salome projects high because of his numbers, but his stature and unorthodox style of play may get the best of him in the big leagues. What this means to me is that Salome will have a couple of good seasons in him, but once Major League pitchers figure him out, his ceiling will drop considerably. I'm also a little concerned about his high strikeout totals.

     

    Ryan: I agree with the skepticism about Salome's defense. I hold out a little hope that he can translate the defensive tools he obviously has into passable play, but I recognize the odds are, at best, a tossup. If the Brewers need someone to trade at the deadline this year, I suspect Salome will be a top candidate.

     

    Jay: Salome should have the inside track for the catching job by the 2010 season, with a little improvement in his defense. I am encouraged by his walk rate increase from 4.5 percent in 2007 to 8.3 percent last year.

    Jim: Jonathan Lucroy may not have as flashy tools as Salome or Lawrie, but the young man simply gets it done. He hit more home runs (10) than anyone predicted in the tough FSL, and he hit 20 overall. Jonathan projects better defensively than does Salome, so another above-average year at the plate for Lucroy and we may be talking about him succeeding Jason Kendall behind the dish in 2010.

     

    Jay: Jim is right that Lucroy might overtake Salome next season with continued progress in his offense at the AA level. Besides arm strength, Lucroy also has better catching skills than Salome.

     

    Aaron: Lucroy does have solid mechanics across the board, and as a result has a higher capability of adjusting to different kinds of pitching. You wouldn't think that's the case with Salome because he's so erratic. But adjustment takes control, and flailing the way he does will make it difficult for him to be consistent.

    What's most interesting about this whole thing is that these two guys are almost the same exact age despite playing at two different levels. The difference between them is that LuCroy went off to the University of Louisiana instead of going to professional ball right away. This made him more intelligent behind the plate. Conversely, Salome went right into pro ball, and the Brewers were able to follow him and develop him the way they wanted to. In the end, the Crew got two solid prospects, who project very well, but only one of them is going to see consistent time at the big league level. My thought is Lucroy will have a longer and more consistent career, making Salome a one year sit in and potential trade bait.

     

    Ryan: To me, Lucroy is the Brewers’ catcher of the future. His defense may not profile as above average, but when you add in his leadership and game calling abilities, he should be serviceable behind the plate. Combine that with a good discipline/power mix for a catcher and you've got a solid asset.

     

    Jim: Perhaps no one has been talked about more than Brett Lawrie and his desire to play catcher in the major leagues. No one has really seen him handle a pitching staff or try to block balls in the dirt, however, so he is almost a complete mystery. Part of me believes his bat will be so advanced that Milwaukee may give up on him catching and stick him at either third base or second in an attempt to get his bat in the big leagues. Brett is a wild card, but we will know more after the season.

     

    Aaron: The team needs to stop talking about Lawrie as a backstop and send him right to second base. There is almost no depth in the Brewers’ minor league system and Lawrie's bat, if it goes the way it has been for Canada, puts him in the upper echelon at that position. Furthermore, he'll make it to the majors much, much faster.

     

    Ryan: The Brewers are probably best served by taking a look at him behind the dish this spring, and possibly into the season, and then making up their minds if they want to stick with him back there. I'm not going to rule it out as a possibility that he could stay at catcher, but my guess is that he's a third basemen when it's all said and done. Second base could also be a landing spot, but the scouting stuff I've seen seems to suggest that he'll outgrow the position. Whatever they decide, they need to make a decision quickly and then commit to it 100%

     

    Jay: I am skeptical about Lawrie ending up at catcher. He’s starting at the catching position from square one because he hasn't played much there in his junior years in Canada. His bat is years ahead of what it would take to develop him as a catcher, so keeping him behind the plate may well end up stunting the growth of his bat. Lawrie should be able to find a home at third if the  Brewers move Gamel to another position.

     

    Jim: Lawrie will stay at catcher until Salome or Lucroy can prove himself at the major league level.  Who knows, maybe Lawrie will be the best backstop of the three. We haven't seen him play a professional inning as of yet, so there is no telling how good (or disappointing) he may be.

     

    Ryan: Well, there is a lot more that could be covered here, but it’s time to call it a day. We’ve barely even mentioned the top guys in the system, Mat Gamel and Alcides Escobar. If you want to read more, check out the top 25’s for both Ryan and Jim. Check back to Between the Green Pillars all season for weekly updates on the best and worst weeks of players in the Brewers’ system.

     

  • Walking A Fine Line

    The Dow Jones is down over 1200 points since the close of 2008. Unemployment is up almost three percent since the start of 2008. Every talking head on the TV machine tells us that it's only going to get worse before it gets better and that at best we can hope to avoid a "lost decade" like Japan suffered in the 1990's. So is it any surprise that Mark Attanasio, the principal owner the Milwaukee Brewers, is uneasy over spending big bucks to field a baseball team in the current economy?

    "We feel a little more comfortable with [the pitching]. I think when we saw everybody at the fan event [in Milwaukee last month], we were still at a bit of a discomfort point.
    "Now, I'm at a little bit of a discomfort point on the payroll."
    That line drew a laugh, but at the same time it's serious business. If Gagne makes the team and he and other players reach what Attanasio called reachable incentives, Milwaukee's payroll would push past $90 million, a tough number to support in one of baseball's smallest markets.

    If you believe the reports that came from Miller Park last year, the Brewers stood to lose money on the year if they failed to make the playoffs carrying a 90 million dollar payroll. Making the playoffs is a huge windfall for any franchise, and hosting two games put the team well into the black, but they had to get there to make that money. Early ticket sales for 2009 have been strong (over 1 million sold, according to the article), but if the team falls out of contention in the summer, it will be next to impossible to equal last year's three million fan mark as no-shows become a big issue with a disappointing team, especially in a bad economy.

    Making matters worse....

    He (Attanasio) expects the Brewers' share of Major League Baseball revenue sharing to be lower in 2009, and he's trying to preserve a manageable budget so the Brewers can afford the rising salaries of their young stars. Prince Fielder's pay, for example, jumped from $670,000 in 2008 to $6.5 million this season and will go to $11.5 million in 2010 as part of his two-year contract extension. Corey Hart just signed a $3.25 million, one-year contract on Tuesday after earning $444,000 last year.

    The Brewers are in a very dangerous position here. If they don't make the playoffs this year, they're almost certainly going to lose money in 2009. In that event, it will be up to management if they want to risk another year where they lose money, and they very well might decide to start trimming payroll back to compensate for past losses. Should it come to that, the team will almost certainly have to decide if it's time to scrap the current core group of players and embark upon a rebuilding project a year or two early simply for fiscal reasons. Given the limited number of opportunities that any given team has in a success cycle, being forced to make a decision like that undercuts the whole mission of doing whatever it takes to win a World Series.

    Beyond that, there are other potential hazards to running a big league payroll up close to your operating budget. Some of the best money that teams spend in any given year is the money they commit to signing bonuses of drafted and signed amateurs. If you are able to develop a star player, as the Brewers have recently done so often, you end up saving millions on payroll due to the cheap control years that those players are obligated to play out before cashing in. At times in the past, teams have cut back their budget for signing amateurs significantly to squeeze out a million or two for a mediocre veteran or two. It's key that the Brewers do not do this, as they'll have a few extra picks this year that they need to take advantage of. Furthermore, there is talk that the economy will likely cause a downturn on bonuses in general, leaving the door open for a big time opportunity for those with some money to spend.

    Last year, the Milwaukee Brewers made a few bets at the all-star break to give the franchise a shot at making the postseason and they ended up paying off in the end. It would appear that they are doing the same thing this year, despite a rapidly deteriorating economy and without the benefit of having half the season under their belt while sitting right in contention. It's always hard to be able to separate fact from fiction when it comes to a sports teams finances, but it does seem safe to say that the Brewers are once again sticking their neck out for a shot at winning.

    They just better hope that it doesn't get lopped off.

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