Prospect Chat: Part I

Now that the top 25 lists are done, it's time to talk about the state of the system with a few of the people who put in work on those lists. Jim Breen, the author of the list over at Bernie's Crew and BC contributor Aaron Kittell will join Pillars’ regulars Ryan Topp and Jay Montague in discussing who ended up where and why, general trends within the system and taking a look forward at where the system is headed.

 

Ryan: The Milwaukee Brewers franchise has to build from the ground up to be successful in the current big league economic system. Last season didn't see any big time rookies break into the bigs, but things were still going on beneath the surface. If you had to give the system an overall grade, what would it be and what little comments would go on the report card with it?

 

Jim: I would have to give the system a B- for the season.

The Nashville Sounds were absolutely horrendous last season, and only Brad Nelson did anything to help his big league stock rise by hitting .286/.380/.480 with 18 home runs. Besides the issue in Nashville, the Brewers were quite successful on the season. They lost top-tier prospects in Matt LaPorta and Michael Brantley, along with lesser prospects such as Steve Hammond and Darren Ford, but those losses were glossed over by the first playoff appearance in 26 seasons.

 

Ryan: I would agree that Nashville was a big disappointment in 2008, but I'm not too worried about that. I think that oftentimes people spend too much time worrying about what is going on at AAA, because that is where the "best players" are supposed to be. In fact, farm systems go through cycles all the time, and there was so much potential major league talent at AA and below that what happened at AAA just wasn't that big a deal.

 

Jay: Brewer System Grade: B

I like the depth the Brewers’ system offers but many minor league experts have stated the organization lacks high ceiling players. Brett Lawrie and Jeremy Jeffress are the only 2 players in the high ceiling class currently. I think the excellent draft of last June could bring the Brewers back into the top 10 of farm systems. In the near future the team should have lots of options with position players graduating to the majors. Hopefully the young pitching in the system will pay dividends a couple years down the line.

Jim: Yeah, the biggest positive that I saw in the 2008 Minor League season was the infusion of young talent in the lower levels of the organization. Pitchers like Jake Odorizzi, Cody Scarpetta, Wily Peralta, Rob Wooten, Efrain Nieves, Seth Lintz, and Amaury Rivas provide a bright outlook for the future in Milwaukee. Young hitters like Erik Komatsu, Brett Lawrie, and Cutter Dykstra also give hope for hitting in the future.

 

Ryan: This is huge. We'll talk about the young pitching a little later on, but it wasn't just pitching they added. This young talent, combined with the extra early picks they'll have in the 2009 draft, figures to give them a deep talent pool to draw from as they head forward.

Overall, I think a B for the system in 2008 is pretty appropriate. They had quite a few players break out at AA and had a solid draft that produced some immediate results. They were able to use the depth of the system to acquire important players for a successful playoff drive. On the negative side, they're still waiting for a pitcher other than Jeffress to assert himself as a top-notch pitching prospect, and the defensive progress of some of the top bats wasn't quite what people had hoped. All in all, the farm system is producing enough talent to sustain a competitive team at the major league level, which is ultimately what their job is.

 

Jim: Milwaukee's minor league system has been solid for many years now, churning out prospects like Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Ryan Braun, Ben Sheets, and J.J. Hardy. Despite this, many analysts believe that the Brewers' system is a middle-of-the-pack organization this season. Why? What are the weaknesses of Milwaukee's system as it now stands?

 

Ryan: I think the most glaring weakness is the lack of top flight pitching at the upper levels, with the exception of Jeffress. There is potential lower down, but who knows what will come of that? The other big issue is that the position players, by and large, have defensive and/or positional questions. The organization has been great at producing big league bats, but I'm hoping that new SD Bruce Seid will tweak the approach towards drafting to address the weak spots.

 

Aaron: It's pretty clear the Brewers have done an exceptional job improving their minor league system over the last seven years, but they deserve their ranking at the middle of the pack.  The problem isn't that they don't have promising prospects , as they are stacked with those. For me, it's that all of those prospects tend to have gaping holes in their game. With Mat Gamel, it's his defense. With Jeffress, it's his juvenile behavior. With Escobar, it’s personal issues and almost no slugging. Even with Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, it was defense. They just don't have a guy like David Price, Matt Wieters or Evan Longoria anywhere in their system. I know these are extreme examples, but the point is that the Crew just doesn't have well-rounded prospects in the system.

 

Jay: I agree, Aaron. I think the previous scouting staff drafted the best offensive player available regardless of where they thought they could play on the diamond. The problem with that is there is no place to hide sub par defense in the National League besides left field and first base. I hope the new scouting staff puts some emphasis on finding players with some defensive tools. With increased success at the major league level, the Brewers won't be spending big money on early first round draft picks anymore. The Crew should look into spending some of that money on the international front.

 

Jim: The big problem I see with the international operations is a lack of a facility in the Dominican Republic, as their current philosophy is simply not working. Shawn Zarraga, Hitaniel Arias, and Carlos George all have potential, but the team as a whole was terrible. Something has to be remedied, and it appears Milwaukee is sincerely looking to reopen a facility in the DR. Perhaps that will help.

 

Ryan: It seems to me that opening a facility somewhere in Latin America is key to addressing the problem that Aaron alluded to, which is a lack of well rounded, star players. As Jay pointed out, the Brewers aren’t going be drafting at the top of the first round anytime soon, and that is where you find the “perfect players.” So if the Brewers want to hit the jackpot on a superstar, their best chance is probably the international market. That means they need to get more active looking for talent, but also more proactive about creating an environment where it can succeed.

 

Aaron: As for specific weaknesses in the system, I agree with Ryan that top flight pitching is non-existent. However, I see it starting to develop. Ace pitchers are hard to find and they often come unexpectedly. I see Odorizzi and Jeffress being able to be a 1-3 spot pitcher. The biggest weakness, though, is clearly the entire infield. Jim has mentioned Eric Farris recently, and he looks very promising despite his low slugging.  With the exception of Escobar, there isn't a single player out there that truly projects dominance, unless you count Gamel playing first base.

 

Jim: There is an utter lack of quality middle infield prospects above the upper levels. Alcides Escobar appears poised to break into the big leagues as soon as this upcoming season, but the cupboards are bare after him. Mike Bell is not a legitimate prospect, in my opinion, while players like Brent Brewer are too raw to contribute in the next couple seasons. The only solid second base prospect in the system is Eric Farris, who is one of my personal favorites. He does not project to be an All-Star, but he has speed and hit .293/.332/.377 after an extremely slow start to the season.

 

Ryan: I think we can pretty much bet on them taking at least one middle infielder with one of those 5 picks they'll have in the first two rounds of 2009's draft.

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