Prospect Chat: Part III

Now that the top 25 lists are done, it's time to talk about the state of the system with a few of the people who put in work on those lists. Jim Breen, the author of the list over at Bernie's Crew and BC contributor Aaron Kittell will join Pillars’ regulars Ryan Topp and Jay Montague in discussing who ended up where and why, general trends within the system and taking a look forward at where the system is headed.

For Part I we looked at the big picture positives and negatives in the system. In Part II, the subject was the bevy of young pitching talent in the lower levels of the system. Today, we'll look at catching. You have to go back to Mike Matheny to find the last regular starting catcher the Milwaukee farm system produced and you have to go all the way to Dave Nilson to find one who could hit. Those distinctions aren't going to last much longer, because the Brewers are now loaded to the gills with hard-hitting catching prospects. How do you see the catcher position shaping up in the short and long term?

 

Jim: I am terribly conflicted about what will happen for Milwaukee behind the plate in the coming years.  Angel Salome appears to be the catcher of the future for the Crew, but it is unclear whether or not his defense and unorthodox style at the plate will translate to the big leagues. He has all the tools to become an All-Star backstop, but he is further away than many believe. The 22-year old is still quite raw behind the dish.

 

Aaron: I'm with Jim on this one, though much less conflicted. I think Salome projects high because of his numbers, but his stature and unorthodox style of play may get the best of him in the big leagues. What this means to me is that Salome will have a couple of good seasons in him, but once Major League pitchers figure him out, his ceiling will drop considerably. I'm also a little concerned about his high strikeout totals.

 

Ryan: I agree with the skepticism about Salome's defense. I hold out a little hope that he can translate the defensive tools he obviously has into passable play, but I recognize the odds are, at best, a tossup. If the Brewers need someone to trade at the deadline this year, I suspect Salome will be a top candidate.

 

Jay: Salome should have the inside track for the catching job by the 2010 season, with a little improvement in his defense. I am encouraged by his walk rate increase from 4.5 percent in 2007 to 8.3 percent last year.

Jim: Jonathan Lucroy may not have as flashy tools as Salome or Lawrie, but the young man simply gets it done. He hit more home runs (10) than anyone predicted in the tough FSL, and he hit 20 overall. Jonathan projects better defensively than does Salome, so another above-average year at the plate for Lucroy and we may be talking about him succeeding Jason Kendall behind the dish in 2010.

 

Jay: Jim is right that Lucroy might overtake Salome next season with continued progress in his offense at the AA level. Besides arm strength, Lucroy also has better catching skills than Salome.

 

Aaron: Lucroy does have solid mechanics across the board, and as a result has a higher capability of adjusting to different kinds of pitching. You wouldn't think that's the case with Salome because he's so erratic. But adjustment takes control, and flailing the way he does will make it difficult for him to be consistent.

What's most interesting about this whole thing is that these two guys are almost the same exact age despite playing at two different levels. The difference between them is that LuCroy went off to the University of Louisiana instead of going to professional ball right away. This made him more intelligent behind the plate. Conversely, Salome went right into pro ball, and the Brewers were able to follow him and develop him the way they wanted to. In the end, the Crew got two solid prospects, who project very well, but only one of them is going to see consistent time at the big league level. My thought is Lucroy will have a longer and more consistent career, making Salome a one year sit in and potential trade bait.

 

Ryan: To me, Lucroy is the Brewers’ catcher of the future. His defense may not profile as above average, but when you add in his leadership and game calling abilities, he should be serviceable behind the plate. Combine that with a good discipline/power mix for a catcher and you've got a solid asset.

 

Jim: Perhaps no one has been talked about more than Brett Lawrie and his desire to play catcher in the major leagues. No one has really seen him handle a pitching staff or try to block balls in the dirt, however, so he is almost a complete mystery. Part of me believes his bat will be so advanced that Milwaukee may give up on him catching and stick him at either third base or second in an attempt to get his bat in the big leagues. Brett is a wild card, but we will know more after the season.

 

Aaron: The team needs to stop talking about Lawrie as a backstop and send him right to second base. There is almost no depth in the Brewers’ minor league system and Lawrie's bat, if it goes the way it has been for Canada, puts him in the upper echelon at that position. Furthermore, he'll make it to the majors much, much faster.

 

Ryan: The Brewers are probably best served by taking a look at him behind the dish this spring, and possibly into the season, and then making up their minds if they want to stick with him back there. I'm not going to rule it out as a possibility that he could stay at catcher, but my guess is that he's a third basemen when it's all said and done. Second base could also be a landing spot, but the scouting stuff I've seen seems to suggest that he'll outgrow the position. Whatever they decide, they need to make a decision quickly and then commit to it 100%

 

Jay: I am skeptical about Lawrie ending up at catcher. He’s starting at the catching position from square one because he hasn't played much there in his junior years in Canada. His bat is years ahead of what it would take to develop him as a catcher, so keeping him behind the plate may well end up stunting the growth of his bat. Lawrie should be able to find a home at third if the  Brewers move Gamel to another position.

 

Jim: Lawrie will stay at catcher until Salome or Lucroy can prove himself at the major league level.  Who knows, maybe Lawrie will be the best backstop of the three. We haven't seen him play a professional inning as of yet, so there is no telling how good (or disappointing) he may be.

 

Ryan: Well, there is a lot more that could be covered here, but it’s time to call it a day. We’ve barely even mentioned the top guys in the system, Mat Gamel and Alcides Escobar. If you want to read more, check out the top 25’s for both Ryan and Jim. Check back to Between the Green Pillars all season for weekly updates on the best and worst weeks of players in the Brewers’ system.

 

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