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March 2009 - Posts
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The home-grown infield is all grown up. It wasn't long ago that we heard about guys like J.J. Hardy, Rickie Weeks and Prince Fielder down in the minor leagues and Bill Hall was working his way from super-utility to MLB regular. Expectations were high, but we wondered if it was really possible for all of these guys to turn into world beaters, slugging their way to Post Season glory. There have been bumps along the way, but they did reach the postseason together as a group in 2008. Unfortunately, with their arbitration clocks ticking now may be a good time to look around the diamond to evaluate just where these guys are at, because it may be the last season that everyone is together. J.J. Hardy has one more arbitration year left after 2009 before he's eligible for free agency, and the Brewers hot-shot shortstop prospect Alcides Escobar is knocking on the door. Prince Fielder just signed a two-year contract which will take some of the drama out of the contract negotiations going into 2010, but trade rumors will probably start kicking into high gear, especially if the Brewers get off to a slow start. And finally 2009 will go a long way in determining if Bill Hall and Rickie Weeks will remain Brewer regulars or if the team needs to start clearing some room for younger, cheaper talent. Among Brewer fans, debates surrounding Rickie Weeks are as confrontational as a clash between the Sharks and the Jets (singing and dancing included). Supporters point out his patience at the plate, his flashes of power and speed on the base paths. Detractors are frustrated by his low batting average, high strikeouts and inconsistent defense. It doesn't help that Weeks has become the default lead-off hitter in the Brewers line-up, though it's for a good reason; next to Prince Fielder, he has the best ability on the squad when it comes to getting on base. Weeks' .342 OBP in 2008 was low by his standards, considering he posted OBPs of .363 and .374 in 2006 and 2007. If pre-season projections are right, expect a bounce back of some kind from Weeks this year. CHONE is projecting .257/.368/.431 while ZiPS is projecting .246/.359/.409. Everyone needs to make their peace with the fact that Rickie will likely fail to consistently carry a high batting average. He has power to unleash, but it's unwise to expect more than 20 home runs until we see him actually do it. Ultimately, on a team with so many free swingers, Rickie Weeks has skills that are very necessary since he's one of the few guys willing to take pitches, work counts and take a free base. I like Bill Hall. I am cheering for Bill Hall. But I am always frustrated by Bill Hall. Here is a guy who wasn't much of a prospect, but fought for playing time on some bad teams and then had a really good season as a super utility guy and a great season filling in at shortstop while J.J. Hardy battled injuries early in his career. Then things got weird as the Brewers signed Billy to a 4 year/$27 million contract and moved the career infielder to centerfield. The front office was saying, "we think we like you, but we don't know what to do with you," and he's struggled ever since. Hall was never the 35 home run player he was in 2006, but now he needs to show he's not the .293 OBP guy from last season. CHONE has Hall hitting .248/.320/.439 and ZiPS predicts .248/.315/.445. If Hall can produce those numbers, he's probably worth sticking with for his average to plus defense at third, otherwise look for a platoon situation to break out and screams from fans for prospect Mat Gamel. J.J. Hardy seems to the player that most Brewers fans really like to support. He's a no-frills player with some pop in his bat, a solid glove and he's made steady progress from season to season. Hardy made his first All-Star Game in 2007 thanks to a red-hot start in April and May, and finished the season with respectable numbers. In 2008 he figured out how to put it together for a full season and hit .283/.343/.478, showing more patience at the plate and maintaining the power he showed the previous season. CHONE (.278/.343/.463) and ZiPS (.277/.337/.479) project similar number for 2009, which will again provide the Brewers with slightly above league average offensive production and a steady presence in the field at shortstop. Prince Fielder is the heart of the offense for the Milwaukee Brewers. Sorry Ryan Braun fans, but it's true. No one in the line-up at the moment combines Fielder's patience at the plate and his ability to hit for power. 2008 was really disappointing for Prince as he followed up his 50 home run, .288/.395/.618 season with 34 home runs and .276/.372/.507 (and that was aided by a monster September). At 25 years old, look for a bounce back from Fielder. CHONE (.286/.388/.555) and ZiPS (.285/.388/.569) are projecting numbers closer to 2007, though it wouldn't be a stretch to see Fielder start posting a +.400 OBP. All of the tools are there, and now that he has a two-year deal in place, he can go out there and swing that big club again. Let's just hope that the new, trimmer Fielder has learned to dig some balls of the dirt this year.
The Brewers resigned Whitefish Bay native Craig Counsell for 2009, retaining his versitility. Counsell can play anywhere in the infield and give the Brewers quality pinch hit ABs when called upon. Don't expect a lot with the stick (CHONE .224/.325/.310, ZiPS .218/.331/.282), but he's a good guy to have available. Brad Nelson will get a shot to give Fielder a breather on occasion this year. He should show some patience at the plate with some pop from the left side (CHONE .254/.349/.407, ZiPS .239/.319/.395). Casey McGehee had a solid spring and will fill in as the final infielder (CHONE .252/.312/.369).
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Yesterday, in our breakdown of the Brewers starting rotation, we took a look at what the starting staff was going to do after losing CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets' extremely valuable production. The bullpen didn't lose players of that caliber, but there is still a gap to be filled. Together, Salomon Torres, Eric Gagne, Guillermo Mota and Brian Shouse accounted for 234 2/3 innings, 41 of the teams 45 saves and accumulated a combined 3.87 ERA. Interestingly, that was almost exactly half of the total innings pitched by Crew relievers in 2008 (472 1/3) and almost exactly the overall bullpen ERA of 3.89. So while the team does have to replace four of it's more important horses from the '08 pen, it's not like the team was relying on that group heavily for it's best run prevention. At a total price-tag of over 18.5 million, they were well compensated for their efforts and, all things considered, it's probably very fair to say they were, in fact, over compensated.
Due to some internal rising costs, the team didn't have the resources to spend as it had on the bullpen. Thus, the challenge for Doug Melvin and the rest of the front office heading into the off-season was to construct a cheaper bullpen that didn't make large sacrifices in productivity from the group that finished 8th in pen ERA in MLB last season. Fortunately for Melvin, the market cooperated with this need and he was able to acquire several replacements at bargain basement prices compared to what they might have gotten just a year or two ago on the open market.
Headlining the Brewers' offseason acquisitions was all-time saves leader Trevor Hoffman, who the Brewers brought in to be their saves specialist after a messy divorce with the Padres early in the offseason. At 40 in 2008, Hoffman wasn't the pitcher he once was by any stretch of the imagination. Sure, he'll still fan batters with that changeup that will one day land him in Cooperstown, evidenced by his 46 K's in 45 1/3 IP and he still doesn't walk many batters (9). The big difference now is that when Hoffman does get hit, he tends to get hit hard (8 HR allowed) which ultimately played a big part in his ERA working its way up close to the park adjusted league average at 3.77. He also had some trouble pitching multiple days in a row, which comes with the territory as a closer. Further muddying the picture is the oblique injury that just landed him on the disabled list to open the season. When Hoffman does come back, it's hard to say just what the Brewers can expect to get out of him. They may end up turning to another option for the 9th inning at various points throughout the season for availability and effectiveness reasons. At the very least, his name carries some cache with it and his presence does help sort out roles. If he can squeeze one more solid season out of that aging body, the pen should be set at the back end.
There are many candidates to set up for Hoffman, but the most likely based on past performance is another change-up specialist, Carlos Villanueva. Overall, Villanueva's 2008 ERA of 4.07 is pretty pedestrian looking. Digging a bit beneath the surface, however, reveals a much different picture. As a starter, his ERA was well over 6. Once he was moved to relief and hitters no longer got a second and third look at him in a single outing, his ERA dropped to a sparkling 2.12 in 59 1/3 innings. CV has the stuff to fool 'em once, but not twice, as his strikeout rate more than doubled (to 9.44/9 IP) and his walk rate improved substantially as well. While it's asking too much for Villanueva to keep his ERA down in the low 2's, if he can simply keep it around three while giving the Brewers close to 100 innings, he has a good shot to be the best reliever in the pen in 2009. CV is also a leading contender to replace Hoffman when he is unavailable for whatever reason in the 9th.
Another candidate to pick up some late inning duty is fireballing righty Seth McClung, who will serve as a swing man and potential rotation replacement in 2009 as well. Like Villanueva, McClung split his 2008 between the rotation and the bullpen. Though McClung did post a better ERA (3.67 versus 4.24) in the pen, his other numbers were fairly comparable starting and relieving. "Big Red" achieved something close to cult-hero status in the final weeks of the season with several very effective outings against the Chicago Cubs, culminating with 4 inning save on the final Friday of the season. McClung still struggles with his command at times, getting himself into trouble with walks and relying on K's to get out of jams. Chances are good that McClung will both start and finish some games in 2009. Exactly how he is used will largely depend on the team's needs and how he's doing at any given moment. The lone expensive holdover from Melvin's 2007-08 pen shopping spree, David Riske suffered through an injury riddled season in 2008 and even when he was on the mound his performance was well below his own standards. For the first time in his career since 2002, Riske's ERA was over league average, spiking all the way up to 5.31. The problem seemed to be an inability to locate his fastball where he wanted it that ultimately stemmed from the elbow issues that eventually shut him down for good in early September. Riske's 2008 struggles are a good example of the dangers of giving multi-year contracts to middle relievers. The Brewers are counting on him to give them more in 2009 to help justify the contract they gave him, though his performance in spring training thus far has been far from encouraging on that front. One of the few bright spots in September for the Crew in 2009 was the performance of Todd Coffey, working 7 1/3 scoreless innings after being picked up off of waivers from Cincinnati. In 2006, Coffey was briefly the closer in Cinci, but then he became strangely hittable and lost the position. He spent most of his time in 2008 in the minors. If Coffey really did turn the corner after being let go, something which is a distinct possibility for a reliever of his age and ability, the Brewers acquired a valuable piece for nothing. Also in the "cross your fingers and hope that he's turned the corner" category is journeyman reliever Jorge Julio. There are a couple of safe assumptions that can be made about Julio at this point: he is going to strike guys out (career K/9IP of 8.7) and he's going to walk them (4.4 BB/9IP). How effective he will be will ultimately depend on how often balls fall in or fly out. Of course, some relievers don't figure it out until around the age of 30, and the Brewers will only need to keep him around long enough to see if he's been able to figure it all out. The story of Mark DiFelice is one of persistence in the face of constant doubt. He didn't reach the majors until the tender age of 31 when the Brewers needed someone to come up and fill in for a myriad of injuries last May. DiFelice relies on his low 80's cutter to set up hitters, and his peripheral numbers are fantastic. In the majors last year he posted a K:BB ratio of 20:4 in only 19 innings, and held batters to a 1.11 WHIP. The problem is that when batters do get a hold of one of his pitches, they tend to go a ways (4 HR) and his OPS against versus lefties is over 1.000. He'll open 2009 in the bullpen, probably in the "mop up" role, though Manager Ken Macha has shown some willingness to use him to get out the occasional tough righty this spring, which makes sense considering he held them to a .433 OPS in 2008. Rounding out the opening day bullpen is lefty Mitch Stetter, who has seen limited action in each of the last two seasons in Milwaukee. Stetter's 2008 major league numbers are a bit misleading in some ways as compared to his whole minor league career. His biggest problem after being promoted was his 19 walks in 25 1/3 innings, which is very out of character for a guy with a career BB/9IP of 2.53. He was able to maintain a K rate of better than one per inning and that ultimately allowed him to get out of enough jams to post a 3.20 ERA. The biggest difference between Stetter and his predecessor in the "lefty" role, Brain Shouse, is the fact that Stetter can actually get right handed batters out at a respectable clip (.648 OPS against) which should give Macha the ability to let Stetter face righties sandwiched between a pair of lefties. Beyond the seven who will open the season in Milwaukee and Hoffman, the Brewers do have some interesting depth to turn to in the inevitable case of injury and/or ineffectiveness. Tim Dillard was sent down to AAA to open the season starting ballgames, but he was modestly effective out of the pen in the big leagues in 2008, posting a 4.40 ERA in 14 1/3 innings. Long term, the smart money is on his being a reliever in the Salomon Torres sinkerball mold, and he could be effective as soon as this year in that role should the opportunity arise. Acquired from Philadelphia in the offseason, lefty specialist RJ Swindle and his slower-than-slow curve will be sitting in AAA waiting for the need for a second lefty or an injury to Stetter to arise. Down at AA Huntsville, Omar Aguilar has the potential to be a closer at some point with the combination of a high 90's fastball and power slider, and he could see big league action this year if he can learn to command his pitches more consistently. Beyond that, Nick Green or Chase Wright could conceivably come up at some point in either the rotation or more likely to cover for one of the long men who might slip into the rotation, though that isn't likely a long term solution. As with the rotation, many of the national baseball press have written off the Brewers pen as doomed to failure before the season even starts due to the high profile losses sustained in the offseason. Contrary to that surface level impression, the smart money seems to be on Melvin having assembled enough depth to keep things respectable, even if they lack the true "stopper" that grabs headlines. Getting something significant out of Hoffman and at least one of Julio, Coffey and Riske should give Macha enough options to navigate the late innings in 2009.
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When CC Sabathia raised his arms in the air after inducing the game winning double play on the last day of the season, it was the 12th complete game thrown by a Brewers hurler in 2008, good for second in all of baseball. Crew starters threw 983 1/3 innings (5th in MLB), posted a 3.86 ERA (3rd) and 1.31 WHIP (7th). Meanwhile, the hitters were busy scoring 750 runs, which put them pretty much right in the middle of baseball (17th) for team scoring. It's pretty safe to say that it was the rotation's ability to pitch a lot of good innings that landed Milwaukee in the playoffs for the first time since 1982. The national baseball press has mostly focused on the loss of the twin-aces that fronted that effort in 2008 as means to write off the Brewers hopes for a repeat trip in 2009. Replacing Ben Sheets and CC Sabathia obviously isn't going to be easy. Together they threw 329 innings in only 48 starts with a 2.52 ERA, struck out 286 while only walking 72. They accounted for all 12 complete games and had 3 shutouts apiece. That is some serious run prevention and inning eating being done there and not the sort of gap that one can just easily fill.
If the 2009 rotation is going to pull its weight, Yovani Gallardo is going to be a big part of the effort. After getting off to a late start due to a knee injury, Gallardo was sidelined, presumably for the season, in a freak collision with Reed Johnson of the Chicago Cubs in only his 3rd start of the year. Yo rehabbed his heart out and was able to make a miraculous comeback to start on September 25th and once in the playoffs. Considering he was only able to give 24 innings last year, his return to health amounts to a pretty big addition to the 2009 staff. If he's able to live up to and build on his 134 1/3 innings of major league success thus far in his young career, he should be a solid frontman for the Brewers. His 3.35 ERA is more than a run below the park adjusted league average in that time and his 2.69 K:BB ratio shows a maturity well beyond his 23 years. Considering the non-pitching nature of the injury and his quick recovery from it, there doesn't seem to be any more risk of injury for Gallardo than any other young pitcher. There is some question as to how many innings the Brewers will allow him to throw in 2009, considering his lost 2008, but he was up to 188 innings in 2007 between AAA and MLB, so they shouldn't have to skip him very often if at all to keep the innings around a reasonable number. In 2008 Manny Parra took another step on his long road back from an injury riddled minor league career and established himself as a credible major league pitcher. Overall, in 166 innings Parra posted a slightly below park adjusted league average 4.39 ERA. His 147:75 K:BB ratio is decent enough, though to take the next step he'll probably need to put some more distance between those numbers. Parra will also need to cut down the 1.54 WHIP, not only because so many of those runners will end up scoring but also because they increase the number of pitches he has to throw and prevent him from working deep into games. The big lefty was at times dominating and at times maddeningly erratic. He pitched his way out of the rotation by mid September, but considering the fact that he was already well over his 2007 inning total (133), we can probably attribute it to tiring. A step forward from Manny is another key to the 2009 rotation living up to it's potential.
Since being acquired in the Lyle Overbay trade before 2006, Dave Bush has been a solid, if somewhat unspectacular starter. He started poorly and eventually found himself in AAA, but starting on May 27th through the end of the year he posted a 3.38 ERA. After a down year in both departments in 2007, Bush reverted back closer to his 2006 levels with a 4.18 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. The strikeouts aren't where they once were (109) but the walks are still solid (48). The main concern raised by his 2008 performance was his ridiculously low .238 BABIP, which tends to indicate that he was somewhat unnaturally lucky. More balls are almost certainly going to fall for hits in 2009, and the best way to combat that would be a spike back up in his K rate to something more in line with his 2006 numbers. It is easy to overlook what Jeff Suppan is, and will likely be, and focus on what he is not because of the large contract he signed after the 2006 season. Given the the decline in his peripheral stats in the years leading up to signing the contract, the bottom-falls-out season that he suffered through in 2008 was something bound to happen eventually. His ERA+ (ERA compared to park adjusted league average on a scale where 100 is average) has been on a steady decline since 2005. If all of that wasn't enough to put a fan in a bad mood, Suppan is now entering the expensive part of his contract, where he will be paid 12.5 million per year the next two seasons. Still, all is not lost. Suppan did suffer from a highish .306 BABIP and he was struggling with some injuries last season. If he can stem the deterioration in ERA+ and hold steady around 5.00 while pitching close to 200 innings, he should be good enough to keep the team in many games and give the offense a chance to win. No one in their right mind would give him a 2 year, 25 million dollar contract now, but it doesn't have to be a total disaster. The Brewers may have decided to go after another Cardinals inning eater when they signed Braden Looper, but this time the price (4.75 million for one year) was right. Looper began his professional life as a starter, but had been converted to relief work by the time he reached the majors with the Cards in 1998. In 2007, the Cardinals made the odd-at-the-time decision to covert Looper for work as a starter. After a decent season in 2007, he was able to turn in a slightly better than league average ERA of 4.16 in 2008 while pitching 199 innings. He's not a big strikeout guy (108), but neither does he walk many batters (45) and his WHIP (1.31) is solid back of the rotation stuff. He's not going to make anyone forget about Ben Sheets or CC Sabathia, but if he can keep the ball down and get his groundouts, he'll be able to fill the gap reasonably well. Teams rarely make it though a season using only 5 starters. One can pretty much count on a 6th starter getting a good number of starts and more often than not a 7th or even 8th starter will also be needed at some point. Unless he is otherwise occupied closing games (and perhaps even then), the man that the Crew will turn to first in the case of a need for another starter is Seth McClung. McClung made 12 starts in 2008, averaging just over 5 IP per start and posting a 4.24 ERA in those games. He managed this by taking a bit off the top end of his fastball and focusing on pitching to contact. If he can harness his sometimes erratic command, he should at least be able to be a credible stop gap performer at the back of the rotation and possibly even a bit better than that. After undergoing Tommy John surgery for the second time in his career last season, Chris Capuano is back and throwing with the Brewers this spring. Not much information about his performance thus far has been leaked to the press, but if he can regain some of the velocity he lost in 2007, Capuano could be a pleasant surprise and needed reinforcement sometime around the middle of the year. Cutter artist Mark DiFelice will almost certainly see some time in the big leagues in 2009, and though he is probably best suited to mop-up relief and ROOGY duty, he could be a stop gap starter in a pinch at some point. Though it is an extreme long-shot, if top pitching prospect Jeremy Jeffress were to take a major leap forward in his command and consistency, he could find his way to the big leagues at some point late in 2009, though it would probably be in a relief role.
Barring an everything-goes-right miracle from the starters on hand or a major aquisition before the trade deadline, the 2009 rotation is not going to carry the Brewers into the playoffs as it did in 2008. That being said, unless the group on hand suffers from signifigant bad luck on the injury front and/or regression, they probably will be good enough to hold serve and allow the team to compete for a playoff spot if the offense and bullpen can step up a bit from their 2008 efforts. Such is the life of a mid market team, where nothing good lasts long and the formula for winning has to be constantly reevaluated and adjusted according to resources and talent on hand. It's never good news to lose pitchers like Sabathia and Sheets, but it doesn't have to be a death sentence.
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It's easy to understand why Brewer fans would get excited about the idea of landing Jake Peavy. He's a recent Cy Young winner, locked into a contract that isn't outlandish for the next few years and the Brewers lack an experienced, top flight starter to front their rotation. For the time being, it's a non-issue, though. General Manager Doug Melvin has flatly told anyone who will listen that he has not had contact with the Padres about the possibility of acquiring the power righty. MLB.com beat writer Adam McCalvy does an excellent job in this piece of not only dispelling the rumor, but chronicling it's origin, which seems to be an offhanded comment in Peter Gammons blog over the weekend.
So for now, at least, it would appear that the Brewers aren't trying to land Peavy. If they find themselves in the thick of a pennant race this summer, that could very easily change. Considering all the evidence, that probably wouldn't be a good thing. Why would landing a proven stud like Peavy be a bad thing for the Brewers? It wouldn't, necessarily, but there are a number of factors that when added up make him a risky proposition.
First off, Jake Peavy probably isn't quite as good as he appears on the surface. He has played his home games at Petco Park, which has been the best pitcher park in baseball since the day it opened. His career home ERA (2.77) is more than a point higher than his career ERA on the road (3.80). At home he gives up a home run every 14.4 innings while on the road it happens almost exactly twice as often, every 7.2 innings. Pitchers do generally pitch somewhat better at home than on the road. Dave Bush has an even larger career split in ERA, for instance. Also, it's not like Peavy's road numbers are bad; they are still pretty sound for a pitcher in this day and age. Still, a team expecting Peavy to be as good as his career numbers pitching half his games in Petco is likely to not quite get what they're paying for.
Which brings us to the matter of salary. As was alluded to in the opening, Peavy is signed to a contract that is reasonable compared to what pitchers of his resume get on the open market these days. He is owed 8 million in 2009, 15 million in 2010, 16 million in 2011, 17 million in 2012 and has a 22 million dollar option for 2013 with a 4 million dollar buyout. That's 60 million in guaranteed money, and more than 15 million a year for three straight years. Now, that is well worth it for Jake Peavy, "Cy Young Contender", but would it be worth it for Jake Peavy, "Inning Eater"? The Brewers would largely be casting their lot in with Peavy and his production in 2010-2012, because there isn't going to be a lot of money left over to pay for other needs. Plus, they are counting on him to stay healthy in that time.
On the surface, it wouldn't seem that Jake Peavy is a huge injury concern. Since becoming a full time starter in 2003, he's never made fewer than 27 starts and has four times made over 30 starts. That's not Greg Maddux/Tom Glavine reliable, but it's also not Ben Sheets/AJ Burnett semi-reliable or Carl Pavano/Mike Hampton "that guy's still on the roster?" either. Carlos Gomez of The Hardball Times took the time to break down Peavy's mechanics and his basic conclusion:
"Peavy is a max-effort pitcher with high risk/high reward mechanics. I
happen to love pitchers who "go after it" even if they are considerably
riskier. I would love to see Peavy clean up his mechanics in order to
reduce the risk. However, I would not be in favor of him toning down
his aggressiveness."
Peavy is heading into his late 20's now and this contract carries him through his age 31 season. He's generally missed at least a few starts every year, and with "max effort" mechanics that is almost certain to become a more, instead of less, frequent occurrence. Finally, there is the matter of having to give something up to give him. He's under contract to the Padres, and has a no trade clause that allows him to block a trade to Milwaukee. If his agent is smart, he would demand that the Brewers pick up the option to make a trade happen, which would really up the price tag. Ultimately, he may not even be willing to do this at all. Even if Peavy is OK with the deal, the Brewers would need to put together a package of prospects that would both satisfy the Padres and likely outbid another suitor who may or may not already have Peavy's approval. As McCalvy noted, this probably means giving up Mat Gamel or Alcides Escobar and someone else of value, possibly Jeremy Jeffress. That is a steep price to pay, considering those players likely ability to start somewhere and be useful in the majors within a short time period. In the end, if they could get him to waive his no trade clause, they would have to give up good talent to get him. There is a substantial risk that his numbers would regress playing half his games in Miller instead of Petco park, and that he may not even be able to stay on the field for 30+ starts a year anyway. For the priviledge of gving up the talent and assuming these risks, they would be commited to paying him 15+ million a year from 2010-12. When you add it all up, Peavy is just too risky for a mid-market team like the Brewers. If the Cubs do go out and land him, it will undoubtedly lead to shouts of joy audible to the border, but Peavy stands a good chance of being just the sort of player that can help continue the Cubs particular brand of success.
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If you're a die-hard Brewer fan who uses the inter-tubes to collect information about your favorite team (and if you're reading this, you are) you've been following the ongoing drama of the Ryan Braun injury. I'm not going to rehash it here for you, but if you for some reason do need a primer just scroll through the JS Brewer Blog and eat your heart out. By the time you're reading this, there surely will be at least marginally better information available on the status of Braun. He'll probably (hopefully) have an MRI and see some sort of doctor sometime Thursday. We've all got our fingers crossed, but I think a few things are fairly likely: Braun is probably going to miss some time at some point due to this injury and even when playing he will not always be at full health.
Braun is obviously extremely important to the fortunes of the CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets-less 2009 Milwaukee Brewers. The rotation just isn't going to be as good, so the offense is going to have to pick up some of the slack. Ironically, in an Alanis Morissette sense, as I was pondering this question I came upon this Baseball Prospectus/ESPN.com joint article (sorry, it's insider) listing the top 10 "irreplaceable stars" in the game today. Braun made the cut:
Ryan Braun, Brewers LF (0.231 MLVr, 0.434 above backup): While Braun's overall 2008 line couldn't quite equal his 2007 numbers, the move from third base to left field saved 30 runs, according to our defensive numbers. His MLVr ranks ninth among our PECOTA projections and is exacerbated by the Brewers' lack of a suitable backup. Tony Gwynn Jr. (-0.203) and Chris Duffy (-0.239) carry weak sticks even for center fielders, and it's a stretch to assume that Trot Nixon (0.010) will suffice, given that he played in just 11 major league games last year. Former top prospect Brad Nelson (-0.083), a first baseman who's taken up the outfield corners in an attempt to win a reserve job, would bump Braun out of the top 10 if he can handle the move to the pasture. Is anyone excited by the possibility of seeing if Brad Nelson can bump Braun out of the top 10 of this list? I didn't think so. In conversation earlier with someone, we were trying to come up with
some sort of over-under for the number of games Braun is likely to play
this year. We ended up somewhere in the 130 to 140 range as a
reasonable place to set the number, which upon further reflection still
seems about right. He's obviously a guy who wants to be in the lineup
and one who will fight being out for extended time, so he'll push to
get back ASAP regardless of the wisdom of such a decision. It's impossible to know just how good or bad Braun will be playing whatever degree of hurt he is. We can go back and look at his splits last year pre (.300/.339/.586) and post (.238/.321/.449) strain and surmise the obvious: Ryan Braun is a lot better healthy than he is hurt. If you believe Braun, something that is becoming increasingly difficult in this whole saga, he's not in as much pain as last season right now. Even if it's true, it's hard to know if and how long that can last playing with a re-aggravated old injury. The Brewers are in a tough position here. One of the most valuable players on the team and the "face of the franchise" has a recurring injury that doesn't necessarily have to keep him off the field but will likely hurt his play and they do not have an easy replacement for him. For the next few weeks, the best course is almost certainly caution but once the season starts if Braun feels well enough to try and play it's going to be hard to keep him out of the lineup. Even if he can play well enough that he's not hurting the team, he's risking making the injury more severe and long term with every wild hack he takes. To make it through this season in one piece, three things are going to need to happen: - Braun is going to need to be as open and forthright as possible with the training staff about his injury.
- The Brewers are going to need to be careful and judicious in when they decide to play him.
- Everyone involved is going to need some good luck.
(H/T to Badger80 for "inter-tubes")
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