Bullpen Picture Clears Up a Bit

While none of the moves made by the Brewers on Sunday are surprising, they do answer some questions fans had about how the Brewers were going to break camp in the bullpen:

Tim Dillard and Nick Green were optioned to Triple-A Nashville. Omar Aguilar and Alex Periard are bound for Double-A Huntsville. Mark Rogers was optioned to Class A Brevard County, and Cody Scarpetta will go to Class A Wisconsin.

Obviously Scarpetta, Rogers and Periard were never going to break camp with the Brewers. Green was always more of an insurance policy than anything else. With Aguilar's quick ascent last year from A ball to dominating in the AFL at year's end, there were questions in the off-season about whether or not he might be able to break camp with the team. The lack of control that he showed in AA last year probably necessitated his opening the year in the minors. It was a bit surprising that the Brewers elected to send him all the way down to AA, though a solid start should find him in Nashville before the kids are out of school.

The most surprising move in the group was the decision not just to send Dillard down, as he was pitching well enough to be in the conversation for a bullpen slot, but also to change his role:

For Dillard, the move was to work him into a starter because the organization likes his power arm and feels if he can continue to develop a slider and changeup, he could be a valuable asset in the near future. Manager Ken Macha said it is possible Dillard to could be called up sometime this season as a starter or for the bullpen.

The decision to return Dillard to the rotation almost certainly has more to do with the immediate need for starting depth at the upper levels of the minors as it does with his long term outlook as a player. I still think he's going to wind up in the pen over the long haul, but after the rotation and Seth McClung, the Brewers have no good options to start games to begin the year should issues arise. If Chris Capuano establishes that he is back from the injury and nothing else goes wrong in the rotation, Dillard could easily wind up back in the majors out of the pen. It's much easier to convert a starter to relief in season than the other way around, so he is still only a phone call away from being in the pen any given day for the Brewers.

So now that we know that Dillard and Aguilar will not open up 2009 in the bullpen, the race for what looks like 7 bullpen slots is starting to come into focus. Trevor Hoffman, Carlos Villanueva and David Riske are all easy locks. Seth McClung will be on the major league club to open the year, and now that Braden Looper appears to be on track to start the season in the rotation, Seth will likely be headed to the pen. Mitch Stetter is the presumed leader for the pen lefty role, though RJ Swindle is putting up a respectable showing. The team probably doesn't need a second lefty out of the pen, as Villanueva's change makes him a strong option against a good left-hander, but it would be unwise to completely count out the possibility.

That leaves two spots in the pen for some combination of Eduardo Morlan, Jorge Julio, Todd Coffey, RJ Swindle, and Mark DiFelice. Morlan has been fairly unimpressive thus far in spring. A rule 5 pick this off-season, Morlan must spend the entire year on the Brewers roster or be offered back to Tampa Bay, who would presumably like to have him back.  Julio, as well, has not looked too exciting, but Coffey has looked very good. Both Coffey and Julio would have to clear waivers to be sent down to open the season, which probably makes the decision to send Swindle down to open the year easier. DiFelice is a wild card, because of his unconventional stuff and age. He has shown the ability to get major leaguers out, though he will give up his share of hard hit balls. Macha has said that he's willing to consider DiFelice.

It's early, but I think the smart money is on Coffey and Morlan at this point. With Villanueva, McClung and Riske all being viable multi-inning options, the team probably has some room to hide Morlan at the back end until they can get a better look at him. DiFelice probably will deserve a spot, but if the team wants to maintain any depth they should probably try to keep two guys who would be able to walk away so that they can keep something in reserve. The best case scenario for the team would be for Morlan and either Coffey or Julio to pitch completely lights out from here on out and allow them to hold on to good pitchers for the major leagues and solid depth at AAA.

However it shakes out, the Brewers should have a fairly deep and versitale bullpen this season. The question will be how much does Hoffman have in the tank and will a couple guys step up as lights out setup men?

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