If you're a die-hard Brewer fan who uses the inter-tubes to collect information about your favorite team (and if you're reading this, you are) you've been following the ongoing drama of the Ryan Braun injury. I'm not going to rehash it here for you, but if you for some reason do need a primer just scroll through the JS Brewer Blog and eat your heart out. By the time you're reading this, there surely will be at least marginally better information available on the status of Braun. He'll probably (hopefully) have an MRI and see some sort of doctor sometime Thursday. We've all got our fingers crossed, but I think a few things are fairly likely: Braun is probably going to miss some time at some point due to this injury and even when playing he will not always be at full health.
Braun is obviously extremely important to the fortunes of the CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets-less 2009 Milwaukee Brewers. The rotation just isn't going to be as good, so the offense is going to have to pick up some of the slack. Ironically, in an Alanis Morissette sense, as I was pondering this question I came upon this Baseball Prospectus/ESPN.com joint article (sorry, it's insider) listing the top 10 "irreplaceable stars" in the game today. Braun made the cut:
Ryan Braun, Brewers LF (0.231 MLVr, 0.434 above backup): While Braun's overall 2008 line couldn't quite equal his 2007 numbers, the move from third base to left field saved 30 runs, according to our defensive numbers. His MLVr ranks ninth among our PECOTA projections and is exacerbated by the Brewers' lack of a suitable backup. Tony Gwynn Jr. (-0.203) and Chris Duffy (-0.239) carry weak sticks even for center fielders, and it's a stretch to assume that Trot Nixon (0.010) will suffice, given that he played in just 11 major league games last year. Former top prospect Brad Nelson (-0.083), a first baseman who's taken up the outfield corners in an attempt to win a reserve job, would bump Braun out of the top 10 if he can handle the move to the pasture.
Is anyone excited by the possibility of seeing if Brad Nelson can bump Braun out of the top 10 of this list?
I didn't think so.
In conversation earlier with someone, we were trying to come up with
some sort of over-under for the number of games Braun is likely to play
this year. We ended up somewhere in the 130 to 140 range as a
reasonable place to set the number, which upon further reflection still
seems about right. He's obviously a guy who wants to be in the lineup
and one who will fight being out for extended time, so he'll push to
get back ASAP regardless of the wisdom of such a decision.
It's impossible to know just how good or bad Braun will be playing whatever degree of hurt he is. We can go back and look at his splits last year pre (.300/.339/.586) and post (.238/.321/.449) strain and surmise the obvious: Ryan Braun is a lot better healthy than he is hurt. If you believe Braun, something that is becoming increasingly difficult in this whole saga, he's not in as much pain as last season right now. Even if it's true, it's hard to know if and how long that can last playing with a re-aggravated old injury.
The Brewers are in a tough position here. One of the most valuable players on the team and the "face of the franchise" has a recurring injury that doesn't necessarily have to keep him off the field but will likely hurt his play and they do not have an easy replacement for him. For the next few weeks, the best course is almost certainly caution but once the season starts if Braun feels well enough to try and play it's going to be hard to keep him out of the lineup. Even if he can play well enough that he's not hurting the team, he's risking making the injury more severe and long term with every wild hack he takes.
To make it through this season in one piece, three things are going to need to happen:
- Braun is going to need to be as open and forthright as possible with the training staff about his injury.
- The Brewers are going to need to be careful and judicious in when they decide to play him.
- Everyone involved is going to need some good luck.
(H/T to Badger80 for "inter-tubes")