Yesterday, in our breakdown of the Brewers starting rotation, we took a look at what the starting staff was going to do after losing CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets' extremely valuable production. The bullpen didn't lose players of that caliber, but there is still a gap to be filled. Together, Salomon Torres, Eric Gagne, Guillermo Mota and Brian Shouse accounted for 234 2/3 innings, 41 of the teams 45 saves and accumulated a combined 3.87 ERA. Interestingly, that was almost exactly half of the total innings pitched by Crew relievers in 2008 (472 1/3) and almost exactly the overall bullpen ERA of 3.89. So while the team does have to replace four of it's more important horses from the '08 pen, it's not like the team was relying on that group heavily for it's best run prevention. At a total price-tag of over 18.5 million, they were well compensated for their efforts and, all things considered, it's probably very fair to say they were, in fact, over compensated.
Due to some internal rising costs, the team didn't have the resources to spend as it had on the bullpen. Thus, the challenge for Doug Melvin and the rest of the front office heading into the off-season was to construct a cheaper bullpen that didn't make large sacrifices in productivity from the group that finished 8th in pen ERA in MLB last season. Fortunately for Melvin, the market cooperated with this need and he was able to acquire several replacements at bargain basement prices compared to what they might have gotten just a year or two ago on the open market.
Headlining the Brewers' offseason acquisitions was all-time saves leader Trevor Hoffman, who the Brewers brought in to be their saves specialist after a messy divorce with the Padres early in the offseason. At 40 in 2008, Hoffman wasn't the pitcher he once was by any stretch of the imagination. Sure, he'll still fan batters with that changeup that will one day land him in Cooperstown, evidenced by his 46 K's in 45 1/3 IP and he still doesn't walk many batters (9). The big difference now is that when Hoffman does get hit, he tends to get hit hard (8 HR allowed) which ultimately played a big part in his ERA working its way up close to the park adjusted league average at 3.77. He also had some trouble pitching multiple days in a row, which comes with the territory as a closer. Further muddying the picture is the oblique injury that just landed him on the disabled list to open the season. When Hoffman does come back, it's hard to say just what the Brewers can expect to get out of him. They may end up turning to another option for the 9th inning at various points throughout the season for availability and effectiveness reasons. At the very least, his name carries some cache with it and his presence does help sort out roles. If he can squeeze one more solid season out of that aging body, the pen should be set at the back end.
There are many candidates to set up for Hoffman, but the most likely based on past performance is another change-up specialist, Carlos Villanueva. Overall, Villanueva's 2008 ERA of 4.07 is pretty pedestrian looking. Digging a bit beneath the surface, however, reveals a much different picture. As a starter, his ERA was well over 6. Once he was moved to relief and hitters no longer got a second and third look at him in a single outing, his ERA dropped to a sparkling 2.12 in 59 1/3 innings. CV has the stuff to fool 'em once, but not twice, as his strikeout rate more than doubled (to 9.44/9 IP) and his walk rate improved substantially as well. While it's asking too much for Villanueva to keep his ERA down in the low 2's, if he can simply keep it around three while giving the Brewers close to 100 innings, he has a good shot to be the best reliever in the pen in 2009. CV is also a leading contender to replace Hoffman when he is unavailable for whatever reason in the 9th.
Another candidate to pick up some late inning duty is fireballing righty Seth McClung, who will serve as a swing man and potential rotation replacement in 2009 as well. Like Villanueva, McClung split his 2008 between the rotation and the bullpen. Though McClung did post a better ERA (3.67 versus 4.24) in the pen, his other numbers were fairly comparable starting and relieving. "Big Red" achieved something close to cult-hero status in the final weeks of the season with several very effective outings against the Chicago Cubs, culminating with 4 inning save on the final Friday of the season. McClung still struggles with his command at times, getting himself into trouble with walks and relying on K's to get out of jams. Chances are good that McClung will both start and finish some games in 2009. Exactly how he is used will largely depend on the team's needs and how he's doing at any given moment.
The lone expensive holdover from Melvin's 2007-08 pen shopping spree, David Riske suffered through an injury riddled season in 2008 and even when he was on the mound his performance was well below his own standards. For the first time in his career since 2002, Riske's ERA was over league average, spiking all the way up to 5.31. The problem seemed to be an inability to locate his fastball where he wanted it that ultimately stemmed from the elbow issues that eventually shut him down for good in early September. Riske's 2008 struggles are a good example of the dangers of giving multi-year contracts to middle relievers. The Brewers are counting on him to give them more in 2009 to help justify the contract they gave him, though his performance in spring training thus far has been far from encouraging on that front.
One of the few bright spots in September for the Crew in 2009 was the performance of Todd Coffey, working 7 1/3 scoreless innings after being picked up off of waivers from Cincinnati. In 2006, Coffey was briefly the closer in Cinci, but then he became strangely hittable and lost the position. He spent most of his time in 2008 in the minors. If Coffey really did turn the corner after being let go, something which is a distinct possibility for a reliever of his age and ability, the Brewers acquired a valuable piece for nothing. Also in the "cross your fingers and hope that he's turned the corner" category is journeyman reliever Jorge Julio. There are a couple of safe assumptions that can be made about Julio at this point: he is going to strike guys out (career K/9IP of 8.7) and he's going to walk them (4.4 BB/9IP). How effective he will be will ultimately depend on how often balls fall in or fly out. Of course, some relievers don't figure it out until around the age of 30, and the Brewers will only need to keep him around long enough to see if he's been able to figure it all out.
The story of Mark DiFelice is one of persistence in the face of constant doubt. He didn't reach the majors until the tender age of 31 when the Brewers needed someone to come up and fill in for a myriad of injuries last May. DiFelice relies on his low 80's cutter to set up hitters, and his peripheral numbers are fantastic. In the majors last year he posted a K:BB ratio of 20:4 in only 19 innings, and held batters to a 1.11 WHIP. The problem is that when batters do get a hold of one of his pitches, they tend to go a ways (4 HR) and his OPS against versus lefties is over 1.000. He'll open 2009 in the bullpen, probably in the "mop up" role, though Manager Ken Macha has shown some willingness to use him to get out the occasional tough righty this spring, which makes sense considering he held them to a .433 OPS in 2008.
Rounding out the opening day bullpen is lefty Mitch Stetter, who has seen limited action in each of the last two seasons in Milwaukee. Stetter's 2008 major league numbers are a bit misleading in some ways as compared to his whole minor league career. His biggest problem after being promoted was his 19 walks in 25 1/3 innings, which is very out of character for a guy with a career BB/9IP of 2.53. He was able to maintain a K rate of better than one per inning and that ultimately allowed him to get out of enough jams to post a 3.20 ERA. The biggest difference between Stetter and his predecessor in the "lefty" role, Brain Shouse, is the fact that Stetter can actually get right handed batters out at a respectable clip (.648 OPS against) which should give Macha the ability to let Stetter face righties sandwiched between a pair of lefties.
Beyond the seven who will open the season in Milwaukee and Hoffman, the Brewers do have some interesting depth to turn to in the inevitable case of injury and/or ineffectiveness. Tim Dillard was sent down to AAA to open the season starting ballgames, but he was modestly effective out of the pen in the big leagues in 2008, posting a 4.40 ERA in 14 1/3 innings. Long term, the smart money is on his being a reliever in the Salomon Torres sinkerball mold, and he could be effective as soon as this year in that role should the opportunity arise. Acquired from Philadelphia in the offseason, lefty specialist RJ Swindle and his slower-than-slow curve will be sitting in AAA waiting for the need for a second lefty or an injury to Stetter to arise. Down at AA Huntsville, Omar Aguilar has the potential to be a closer at some point with the combination of a high 90's fastball and power slider, and he could see big league action this year if he can learn to command his pitches more consistently. Beyond that, Nick Green or Chase Wright could conceivably come up at some point in either the rotation or more likely to cover for one of the long men who might slip into the rotation, though that isn't likely a long term solution.
As with the rotation, many of the national baseball press have written off the Brewers pen as doomed to failure before the season even starts due to the high profile losses sustained in the offseason. Contrary to that surface level impression, the smart money seems to be on Melvin having assembled enough depth to keep things respectable, even if they lack the true "stopper" that grabs headlines. Getting something significant out of Hoffman and at least one of Julio, Coffey and Riske should give Macha enough options to navigate the late innings in 2009.